Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

Convergence zone beginning to develop now across Devon/Cornwall, can be seen on Sat24 with cloud breaks and cumulus bubbling up.

[Frosty hollows]

After a murky start,sun is out here in CS England. Humid and sticky. Interesting to see how the weather develops from here

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still overcast and pretty murky in W Norfolk, but it does have that soupy feel to it, even before the sun has came through. Hoping it will do in the next couple of hours. 

[StormLoser]

Damp and wet in Reigate with our own area of rain passing over. Not much chance of any thunderstorms down here, even when the sun comes out. 

Hope others of you have luck!

[Norfolk Sheep]

25 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Still overcast and pretty murky in W Norfolk, but it does have that soupy feel to it, even before the sun has came through. Hoping it will do in the next couple of hours. 

Some breaks in the cloud be Norwich, temps responding accordingly. Slight breeze which is keeping things pleasant. 

[Gonzolio Martinez]

13 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Some breaks in the cloud be Norwich, temps responding accordingly. Slight breeze which is keeping things pleasant. 

Hazy sun here in Norwich, fingers crossed for some action today

[Met4Cast]

Convective Outlook

Hazards

• Torrential rainfall
• Frequent lightning
• Localised/flash flooding

Discussion

Surface heating, multiple convergence lines and approaching weather fronts will drive widespread thunderstorm activity during Saturday. Heavy thundery showers could crop up just about anywhere across England, Wales and Scotland. However there are three key areas where activity could potentially be more enhanced with frequent lightning, flash flooding, hail and torrential rainfall. 

Somerset/SW England

A convergence across Devon, into Somerset will allow a line of torrential showers to develop during the afternoon, heavy rainfall over the same areas could lead to localised or flash flooding with the potential for 60-80mm in the space of a few hours under the most intense cells. Instability will generally be moving NEwards so the greatest risk of lighting looks to be through Somerset, which is why a MDT risk zone has been issued here. A SEVERE has been issued to account for the huge amount of potential rainfall leading to the risk of flash flooding. 

NE Wales/NW England

A second convergence line here running NWards, against the broader SWrly flow will serve to enhance shower and lightning activity in this area. Higher shear means there is the potential for one or two thunderstorms to upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) which could bring frequent lightning, hail and the risk of localised flooding. 

Wash Region

Higher instability/shear in this region combined with low level convergence will as in the previous areas, serve to enhance shower and potential thunderstorm activity. There is some uncertainty just how much in the way of storm activity will develop here, however a MDT has been issued anyway as any storms that do develop have the potential is give some very frequent lightning if they can tap into the stronger shear.

There is the potential for large hail and localised flooding.

Forecasters: Myself and @Ben Sainsbury

Edited July 3, 2021 by Met4Cast

[Liam Burge]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Convective Outlook

Hazards

• Torrential rainfall
• Frequent lightning
• Localised/flash flooding

Discussion

Surface heating, multiple convergence lines and approaching weather fronts will drive widespread thunderstorm activity during Saturday. Heavy thundery showers could crop up just about anywhere across England, Wales and Scotland. However there are three key areas where activity could potentially be more enhanced with frequent lightning, flash flooding, hail and torrential rainfall. 

Somerset/SW England

A convergence across Devon, into Somerset will allow a line of torrential showers to develop during the afternoon, heavy rainfall over the same areas could lead to localised or flash flooding with the potential for 60-80mm in the space of a few hours under the most intense cells. Instability will generally be moving NEwards so the greatest risk of lighting looks to be through Somerset, which is why a MDT risk zone has been issued here. A SEVERE has been issued to account for the huge amount of potential rainfall leading to the risk of flash flooding. 

NE Wales/NW England

A second convergence line here running NWards, against the broader SWrly flow will serve to enhance shower and lightning activity in this area. Higher shear means there is the potential for one or two thunderstorms to upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) which could bring frequent lightning, hail and the risk of localised flooding. 

Wash Region

Higher instability/shear in this region combined with low level convergence will as in the previous areas, serve to enhance shower and potential thunderstorm activity. There is some uncertainty just how much in the way of storm activity will develop here, however a MDT has been issued anyway as any storms that do develop have the potential is give some very frequent lightning if they can tap into the stronger shear.

There is the potential for large hail and localised flooding.

I don't think Bridgwater will get anything as looking at the latest MetOffice rain forecast it seems like the convergence line has moved north a bit towards Street. Still have my fingers crossed though although I don't think we'll be getting anything as intense as forecast.

[toggerob]

I was going to be parked somewhere around Ashbourne by now but looking out the window to the mist & murk I decided to get a few more hours of sleep instead (it was surprisingly humid last night even with the window open.) Forecasts still show a lot of uncertainty with a blanket yellow-warning over the majority of England although Lincs/Norfolk and the Midlands are tending to be the more favorable of locations for this afternoon, so for now i'll be staying put and making a move if anything decides to spark locally.

[MikeUpjohn]

2 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

I was going to be parked somewhere around Ashbourne by now but looking out the window to the mist & murk I decided to get a few more hours of sleep instead (it was surprisingly humid last night even with the window open.) Forecasts still show a lot of uncertainty with a blanket yellow-warning over the majority of England although Lincs/Norfolk and the Midlands are tending to be the more favorable of locations for this afternoon, so for now i'll be staying put and making a move if anything decides to spark locally.

Same here. Might have a play out on the cheshire plains later or south towards stafford

[offerman]

4 hours ago, Liam Burge said:

I still believe here in Somerset we still have quite a high risk of seeing storms due to a convergence line. Not quite sure why we weren't included in the 50% risk though.

Have storms forecast here but nothing on radar even showing as yet 

 

still can’t see much in the way of development here. 
 

no imports or homegrown storms as yet. 

[TJS1998Tom]

Currently on my way to North Yorkshire for the week. Looks to be brightening up now 

[Lauren]

It is disgustingly sweaty today and no chance of a storm to clear it.

[Zak M]

Got some nice cumulus bubbling up to my WNW.

[Met4Cast]

Overlaying the last 3 AROME runs really highlights todays three main risk zones. N Wales/NW England EA/S Lincs N Devon/N Somerset. Scattered showers/thunderstorms elsewhere but less consensus on any one location.

[Liam Burge]

7 minutes ago, offerman said:

Have storms forecast here but nothing on radar even showing as yet 

 

still can’t see much in the way of development here. 
 

no imports or homegrown storms as yet. 

I'm crossing my fingers.

[pad199207]

Liverpool Again? 

[Liam Burge]

Seeing my first glimpses of blue skies now.

[sparky1972]

still dull and boring here, very low cloud, no signs at all that storms will hit here.

[Phildb2]

Plenty of blue sky patches , warm sun ,and dark clouds  in Warwickshire  become very warm ,humid .still and sticky in the last hour .Powerful very warm in the sun

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Phildb2

[offerman]

Sun now out ,so hopefully get to work on brewing some storms 

looking forward to breaking the two year drought of storms here 

raring  to go 

 

 

[Grazy2266]

Sun has finally broke through here in bucks/beds border expecting the home grown action to head north today, quite often here we act like the breeding ground around the chilterns and it then kicks off just to the north of us, shame I'm working otherwise I'd certainly be out and about chasing.

[AWD]

Things starting to kick off over Exmoor now.  Some strikes detected amongst some small, developing cells.

All heading towards Bridgwater!

Edited July 3, 2021 by AWD

[viking_smb]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

Things starting to kick off over Exmoor now.  Some strikes detected amongst some small, developing cells.

All heading towards Bridgwater!

blitzy has detected 2 strikes over that way now

[sparky1972]

packs camera away