Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Chris.R]

Looking good here this weekend for once. Has been a dreadful summer here convectivly. Last thunder day May 16th

[Eagle Eye]

5 thunder days, think that's more than my total last year and yet apart from that import and a short 30 minutes storm that was quite close its just been rumbles in the distance. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Me and @Met4Cast have issued an early outlook for tomorrow, highlighting our preferred areas for thunderstorms tomorrow. Could be a very active day!

 

[Liam Burge]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Me and @Met4Cast have issued an early outlook for tomorrow, highlighting our preferred areas for thunderstorms tomorrow. Could be a very active day!

 

Yes!! It might finally be my turn to get some thunder.

[Sprites]

A swirl in the clouds just now from convergence.

More obvious if it's sped up 

Hope it's ok to add a largish file.

 

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Sprites

[BrickFielder]

First of there is a chance of storms today in the borders and north east under an upper level area of cooler dry air. Satellite imagery would suggest the window of opportunity for stormed in that area is more limited than forecast due to the increased speed the upper level disturbance is moving away.

Not sure I would like to pick out specific areas for storm initiation tomorrow as models for low wind convergence are not fully in agreement.

UKV model definitely goes for the convergence zone along the moors and spine of Cornwall and Devon.

Which model is correct is tricky to predict and the UKV accuracy would not be a bad punt.

Looking at Satellite images then the low pressure to the south west looks like it is Moving faster than modelling predicts which kind of makes both models questionable.

 

If we assume the UKV model is the accurate one then we need to be careful that we don't miss other storm Initiation possibilities.

 

Forecast SkewTs for London a little before midnight and just after sunrise suggest surface storms are possible. Jetstreak aloft, low level convergence, humidity moving in and if I was not skeptical about the modelling then I might be a bit concerned.

I would be expecting some warnings for heavy rain tonight at the least. Best guess at the moments that some places will catch a storm over the weekend beyond that I would like to see tomorrow mornings model output before getting into detail.

 

 

[camturbo]

39 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Yes!! It might finally be my turn to get some thunder.

Let's hope its right eh!!! 

[Liam Burge]

Just now, camturbo said:

Let's hope its right eh!!! 

Yeah! Hoping less of the rain and more of the thunder.

[camturbo]

13 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Yeah! Hoping less of the rain and more of the thunder.

And some decent lightning!!! Suppose time will tell

[Liam Burge]

Just now, camturbo said:

And some decent lightning!!! Suppose time will tell

I think this is our best shot so far this year

[Delka]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Me and @Met4Cast have issued an early outlook for tomorrow, highlighting our preferred areas for thunderstorms tomorrow. Could be a very active day!

 

I’m heading up to Kings Lynn area for the weekend in the morning so here’s hoping I finally get to see my first lightning of the year..

[Jamie M]

 

I see AROME's being hopeful.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Any further thoughts on isolated elevated activity across southern coasts through the night tonight?

Thought I’d read something on CW about it. Low risk but not zero risk

[Norfolk Sheep]

5 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

5 thunder days, think that's more than my total last year and yet apart from that import and a short 30 minutes storm that was quite close its just been rumbles in the distance. 

I've literally seen one flash and heard one rumble, dreadful!

[Cakie]

Getting dark, rain started and distant rumbles from the West of Darlington

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

I've literally seen one flash and heard one rumble, dreadful!

Witnessing some more developing towers to the SW from here in Lynn. Was coming from the Holbeach direction where a sea breeze out of the wash was prevailing, temperature dropped to 21c on the car. 10 miles east as I got to West Lynn roundabout, it shot up a whopping 5c to 26c as I exited the cool sea breeze back into a Southerly! You could literally see the convergence zone in full action. 

[Cakie]

Lightening and heavy rain. This has just appeared on the radar in the last 5 minutes

[wimblettben]

1 minute ago, Cakie said:

Lightening and heavy rain. This has just appeared on the radar in the last 5 minutes

I thought the thunder risk was suppose to be for Saturday and Sunday?

[Cakie]

4 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

I thought the thunder risk was suppose to be for Saturday and Sunday?

The storm didn't get the memo, thunder and lightening as we speak and my daughter is out on an army cadet away day  she will be like a drowned rat

Edited July 2, 2021 by Cakie

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Cap looks like it’s giving in! 

[MikeUpjohn]

Towers going up way off to the South and South West of Macclesfield. Could be a heavy shower and a rumble later!

[Frosty hollows]

That storm approaching Middlesborough escalated quickly!

[wimblettben]

Mention of the rain being thundery from the BBC video forecast this evening.

I feel like for our area best chances for thunder will be tonight and Sunday based on some of the forecasts i've seen. 

[Eagle Eye]

48 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

I've literally seen one flash and heard one rumble, dreadful!

Yes, pulse storms aren't the best for widespread activity. 

[Cakie]

Looks like more developing to the West