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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

UKV 15z with a few near misses at the weekend/start of next week, with a few rounds of storms moving east-to-west through the English Channel. As ever with storm potential, lots of uncertainty for the next few days, but perhaps even more so than usual given the position the cut-off low ends up in not being set in stone.

Edited by Lance M
typos
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Part of the Czech city of Hodonin has been levelled by a strong tornado a short while ago

 

Oh man, looks like a strong one.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
21 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Oh man, looks like a strong one.

Definitely. Reports of deaths, unfortunately and several villages destroyed. 

34B2215D-CBD8-4860-B954-CCD204B92CAF.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
1 hour ago, Lance M said:

UKV 15z with a few near misses at the weekend/start of next week, with a few rounds of storms moving east-to-west through the English Channel. As ever with storm potential, lots of uncertainty for the next few days, but perhaps even more so than usual given the position the cut-off low ends up in not being set in stone.

I stopped reading at “moving through the English Channel” 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Fog, Thunder & Snow :)
  • Location: Reading
26 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Definitely. Reports of deaths, unfortunately and several villages destroyed. 

34B2215D-CBD8-4860-B954-CCD204B92CAF.jpeg

WWW.ESWD.EU

European Severe Weather Database

 Been given an F3 intensity rating 

luzice tornado.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

We have a thread dedicated to talking about storms in Europe. Please can we keep this thread for UK storms.

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
8 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Moving onto the 1990's and June Thunderstorms have lifted the following from my book, hopefully some of you remember some of these years and can put your own stories to them.

1993

Mostly fine and dry, but there were some very violent thunderstorms and heavy rain midmonth (9-16th). A thunderstorm gave 125 mm of rain at Culdrose (Cornwall); 92 mm in two hours early on the 9th. Flooding in Helston. Hailstone damage to glass In Northants. 175mm on the 10th at Llandudno, 140mm of it in 4 hours; flooding over the area and in Conwy. 121 mm in 2.5 hours at North Weald, with much flooding. 92mm in three hours at Epping. There was more very heavy rain over Wales and the southwest on the 11th and 12th

1994

Violent thunderstorms on the 24th over the southeast as a cold front moved east. Lightning damage and death. 27mm of rain in 11 minutes at Wokingham; large hailstones; winds of 47mph, and a gust of 62mph at Herstmonceux (E. Sussex). The storm activity was preceded by rapid development of altocumulus castellanus on the night of the 23-24th.

1996

A plume of hot air up from Spain gave a very hot first week - the earliest such hot spell since 1976. Temperatures were hot on the 5th and 6th; Atlantic fronts brought more cloud to parts on the 7th, although the SE remained sunny. 33.1C at St. James's Park, Westminster, London, on the 7th; a temperature this high so early in the year only happens a few times this century. As a cold front moved south in the evening on the 7th there were violent thunderstorms, particularly from Dorset through the East Midlands into East Anglia. There were 8 damaging hail swaths. 30mm hail, a tornado in Basingstoke and Sherborne, 73.9 mm of rain at Wantage, 30 mm widespread, squally winds, golfball-sized hail, lightning strikes causing power loss, and perhaps best of all, ball lightning in a factory in Tewkesbury, where it exploded with an orange flash.

1998

There was a severe thunderstorm in Reading in the afternoon of the 13th, accompanied by a damaging tornado.

1999

Violent thunderstorms, with notable lightning displays, over much of the country on the night of the 26-27th.

Will put up the 2000's over the weekend

 

I remember the 1999 one, caused flash flooding in tulse hill, and flooded the pub I was working in.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.ab51009b641a5ed92f7969e2e975238b.png

Few low-confidence SLGTs it seems

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
37 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I remember the 1999 one, caused flash flooding in tulse hill, and flooded the pub I was working in.

I was in the Half Moon in Herne Hill during that storm, which also got flooded

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
2 hours ago, BrickFielder said:

Chance of a weak storm late afternoon today many in the South East but also across Midlands and Wales. 

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.77eafb0776efe8384312817565f3c80d.png

Modelling is a bit mixed as to where and any storms are likely to be more spring like with temperatures below 20C. Forecast SkewTs show marginally convective environment in the South East also glow level convergence zone and not really a convective environment in the Midlands and Wales. Some cloud cover and temperature forecasts are clearly wrong on some models showing peak temperatures below current readings equally the development  of the low across Central parts is different on different models. BBC and MetOffice charts suggest Low topped storm development in the low pressure tail over north midlands.

sound-London-18.thumb.png.9f77dff7911b35be2be6b50b1f7e101b.pngsound-WestMidlands-18.thumb.png.17a24ee57b3660cc2d7d835dc6042377.png

Key areas to watch are London and perhaps Birmingham to Manchester area. Not really expecting much more than  weaker storms with low temperatures. Things complicated by global models which tend to hold maritime island (UK) temperatures too low during peak summer and the usual East West movement speed being wrong. When a low pressure is forecast to become enhanced over the UK then forecast modelling tends to struggle so worth a radar watch with a risk of a weak spout like tornado but there is every chance nothing will appear either as its not a strong convective environment. Cloud cover ,heat island effects , low tropopause, surface convergence all likely to play a part, worth a heads up though.

Sometimes @BrickFielder the best storms I see are in cooler atmospheric environments. My best storm of the year so far was in Mid-May - not frequent lightning admittedly, but the majority of the dozen or so strikes were positive, with exceptionally loud peels of ground shaking thunder (making me jump, alarms going off, etc). It had been cloudy for much of the day and temperatures were a puny 14-15C or so with not much humidity to speak of in the run up.

I’d take another storm like that any day

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, urbanj said:

I was in the Half Moon in Herne Hill during that storm, which also got flooded

Small world.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Sun peering out now behind the clouds and it’s very warm in it. Temperatures already up to 20C and it feels muggy still.

Seeing some decent Cu starting to develop so would be very surprised if we don’t see a few heavy downpours this afternoon.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 minute ago, Harry said:

Sun peering out now behind the clouds and it’s very warm in it. Temperatures already up to 20C and it feels muggy still.

Seeing some decent Cu starting to develop so would be very surprised if we don’t see a few heavy downpours this afternoon.

Perfect, sounds like the cap has a chance of going, unless forecast conditions have changed since this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
8 hours ago, BrickFielder said:

Key areas to watch are London and perhaps Birmingham to Manchester area.

Things begging to pep up to the W of Birmingham

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

20210625_170903.thumb.jpg.7350a9092f9a1314918fdb6ef5acd692.jpgScreenshot_20210625-172040_Gallery-01.thumb.jpeg.99f3649b14a477b072154ba7ee528641.jpeg

 

1516538363_Screenshot_20210625-170724_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.f2fd1dd160d2f7100f5503ee343f2164.jpg

Something gone pop by the looks. That bit of cloud had my eye but it's probably some scud having a merry time.

Edited by Jamie M
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

One hell of a convergence zone setting up over our area.....clouds are going in every direction

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Think we are on the edge of that CZ here - some very vertical towers going up, but they just don’t seem to be sustaining enough.

F60357A8-00E1-4D53-A0F2-D6A0A9E2C0FA.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
On 24/06/2021 at 17:58, StormLoser said:

I see a few folks recounting storms in the 1980s. I recall the monster of 1981 - think it was this 5 August event:

 

I worked in Nutfield, along the A25 at that time, and my friend and I had arrived at work in an absolute torrential downpour around 08:00am. The sky cleared and we thought we were in for a nice hot day. Were we wrong!

Around 11:00am the sky started to cloud over and it grew dark and darker. We could hear thunder off to the west. A colleague called me to go and look out the west windows where she said the Jehova's Witnesses would be gathering on the hill tops. The sight will remain with me. A wall of pitch black with a multitude of cloud-ground strikes. The whole thing stretched south to north. And a helicopter flew really low in a hurry over our place as it headed for Redhill aerodrome to land as quickly as possible.  It continued to get dark until it was virtually night, with only a glimmer of light on the southern horizon.

The storm front struck and the skies emptied onto us. What a downpour, with loads of lightning. It lasted an hour, maybe hour and a half. Naturally the power went off. And then it was pretty much gone.

Now, in those days I knew nothing about storms. I was still wet about the ears, so to speak. But I remember this system was in the evening news over flooding and damage in London.  Some of you will probably remember it more accurately. But to my mind it remains one of the most apocryphal storms I've ever seen, and I've see a good few big storms since then.

OMG YES! I remember this. There was certainly a day I remember when it got dark enough for the street lights to go on and it made the news. I don't remember the storm we must of had.Quite the experience none the less!

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire

all of a sudden seems to be a rotating cell developing just south west of Stoke and another small cell west of Birmingham....could be a convergence zone, interesting to see what direction it takes and if it becomes a big storm

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