Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[lottiekent]

Some activity popped up over northern France, potentially heading towards Kent?

Also, lots of teeny little echoes emerged out of nowhere over Kent and Essex in the last half hour.

 

[matty40s]

Currently watching led zepp from 1971 with side hatches wide open to see the skies light up in a 50 year tribute. If not, the boat moored opposite will be jaffa cakesed off with the noise.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Explosion of elevated convection over the south east in the last 20 mins but looks very shallow at present

Looks very fast moving too. A small pocket has got going in W Norfolk too. Can hear the large raindrops pounding my integrated roof windows! 

[TJS1998Tom]

Am I right in saying this is the direction this area seems to be moving up towards? Also some lightning starting to increase again 

 

[lottiekent]

Just heard a very distant rumble in the Channel

[LightningLover]

Just heard a very distant rumble too

[Peachy]

Anybody living in coastal regions between Brighton and Canterbury should see some action in the next couple of hours. 

[alexisj9]

Just heard a distant rumble, in Dover.

That one was slightly louder, as I type.

Strangely no lighting yet.

May be covered by the cloud coming from the east?

[Nick F]

Morning

Well that was a lengthy breakdown of the hot weather that ended mid-week that could have had much potential with upper trough stuck to the west and several waves of storms sweeping northeast across western Europe. But because of the southwesterly rather than southerly element to the steering flow throughout the last few days, it's only Kent and coastal areas of East Anglia that have benefitted from thunder and lightning with elevated storms that moved out of northern France. Quite a big disappointment for most given 3-4 days of potential, just grey skies and rain. Doesn't look like anything worth getting excited about today and tomorrow, a few showers popping up along breeze convergence developing along southern coastal counties of England later once early murk and light rain clears, but no CAPE showing. Tomorrow a low risk of thunder in showers pushing north over the Channel,. Then looking quiet convective-wise for the rest of the week, as the flow comes off the Atlantic 

[Turquoise]

Well after 3 or 4 days of excitement, hype and models it turned out all that happened was one or two Kent clippers. Which pretty much happens everytime something comes over the Channel.... Oh well on to the next one whenever that will be

[Bolt From Blue]

Well we were only discussing this the other day, plumes don't cut it anymore.

All the MUCAPE stays over France into the North Sea and across to Netherlands/Denmark because of wonky trajectory and steering winds keeping destabilising just out of reach. 

Only lucky grazes for areas mentioned (we had a small very average storm on Suffolk coast as the most northern extent) with decent storms in Kent and South Essex early hours Thursday morning only.

Matches last year for here at least although that doesn't take much beating, will we ever see the likes of more Northerly trajectories that engulf much more of the country or were we just extremely unlucky?

 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Bolt From Blue said:

Well we were only discussing this the other day, plumes don't cut it anymore.

All the MUCAPE stays over France into the North Sea and across to Netherlands/Denmark because of wonky trajectory and steering winds keeping destabilising just out of reach. 

Only lucky grazes for areas mentioned (we had a small very average storm on Suffolk coast as the most northern extent) with decent storms in Kent and South Essex early hours Thursday morning only.

Matches last year for here at least although that doesn't take much beating, will we ever see the likes of more Northerly trajectories that engulf much more of the country or were we just extremely unlucky?

 

It's certainly a worrying trend. The last plume I remember that wasn't just a Kent Clipper was the July '19 one, which initially looked like a south west event, but plenty of us saw storms. Surely we can't go two summers without seeing that style of plume?

[Peachy]

This country is a joke. Europe always gets the cream and we get the dregs 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Half an hour timelapse. 

 

 

[Robbie Garrett]

Has anyone been able to narrow it down yet?

• Why in the 90s/00s we got massive imported MCSs
• Why in the 10s/20s we get forecast massive imported MCSs and get a damp squib?

Is it the high pressure systems, the average wind components, the temperature differential or the AO/NAO?  Surely someone's looked through the data and found a common denominator?

[Peachy]

Could be interested if those 3 weather systems near Brest, angers and nantes collide. Could throw up a supercell.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Has anyone been able to narrow it down yet?

• Why in the 90s/00s we got massive imported MCSs
• Why in the 10s/20s we get forecast massive imported MCSs and get a damp squib?

Is it the high pressure systems, the average wind components, the temperature differential or the AO/NAO?  Surely someone's looked through the data and found a common denominator?

I genuinely believe it could be capping issues and possible higher geopotential heights at 500hpa. Cooler air aloft back then due to a less warmed planet perhaps? Plus a reduction in local moisture output from industries/cooling towers etc. Just a theory of course. I wouldn’t mind seeing a detailed case study at some point though, as something over the years has definitely radically changed. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well, that’s that plume done with now. However, it is only June, and there should be more opportunities yet this summer I’m confident of it. July and August have always been the stellar months. We will get our turn. 

[SummerShower]

1 hour ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Has anyone been able to narrow it down yet?

• Why in the 90s/00s we got massive imported MCSs
• Why in the 10s/20s we get forecast massive imported MCSs and get a damp squib?

Is it the high pressure systems, the average wind components, the temperature differential or the AO/NAO?  Surely someone's looked through the data and found a common denominator?

I think plumes tend to come in batches.  13-17 were great years, 07-12 very poor, 05/06 were good, 02/03 not so good.  I think were just in a rut at the moment.  We might not get lucky this year, or even next year, but sooner or later it will pick up.  Even the 90s were hit and miss.  (I don't remember a decent storm from a plume in the glorious summer of 95 for example)

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Has anyone been able to narrow it down yet?

• Why in the 90s/00s we got massive imported MCSs
• Why in the 10s/20s we get forecast massive imported MCSs and get a damp squib?

Is it the high pressure systems, the average wind components, the temperature differential or the AO/NAO?  Surely someone's looked through the data and found a common denominator?

I’m not sure how the phasing of AO/NAO works but it seems to be two-fold. 
 

1 - The cut off lows are forming closer to the Uk opposed to centred in the Bay of Biscay, that BoB centring means we’d draw a more southerly or south easterly plume pushing them further west? Currently all the plumes seems to have more of a SW-NE element? 
 

2 - Seems like lots of hot spells are more regularly broken down by whimpering troughs from the north west slowly modifying the atmosphere completely removing the plume scenarios. 

[Paul Sherman]

To Give you an idea just how pathetic our little Island has become I have lifted some artifacts from a book I have detailing June Thunderstorms over the decades. 

1980

There was a major outbreak of thunderstorms in the north and west on the 5th. Deaths by lightning; tornado at Nairn wrecked a caravan site. 67mm of rain in two hours caused flooding at Darwen (Lancs.). More storms on the 14th: 24 mm of rain in 10 minutes at Sudbury. Widespread storms every afternoon from the 22nd-26th. On the 25th hail lay to a depth of 25cm in Sevenoaks

1982

Much of the rain came from thunderstorms. King's Lynn had 13 thunder days that month. Some notable thunderstorms at the start of the month, which began hot and humid. Thuderstorms on the afternoon of the first led to flooding arounf Huddersfield. There was 90 mm of rain in two hours at Wooton Bassett (Wilts) on the 2nd. 92 mm of rain at Cheshunt (Herts.) and 61mm at Enfield on the 4th. Cheshunt then had a further 35mm of rain on the 5th (that meant twice the normal monthly rainfall in two days). Thunderstorms were widespread on the 4-6th, with lightning deaths. 39 mm of rain in 25 minutes at Stoke-by-Clare (Suffolk) on the 6th; 96 mm at Skipton (North Yorks.) on the 6th. At the same time, 30C was reached at Tummel Bridge on the 5th. There was a notable hailstorm in Bristol on the 18th. Two days of rain over northern England on the 21-22nd, with low daytime temperatures of only 10 degrees. The area around the Humber had 100 mm of rain in 75 hours in that spell. Heavy downpour in Epping Forest on the 25th causing muddy flooding. On the 26th a severe storm in north London led to the death of three children by drowning in a swollen stream at Hendon. 36mm at Stanmore, most of it in half an hour. A severe hailstorm at Ludlow (Shrops.) on the 26th resulted in foot-deep hail drifts.

1983

Some notable thunderstorms. As hot air from the south met cool air from the northeast, there were some severe thunderstorms on the 5th over the south coast, with hail reported up to 75 mm, although most were around 30mm. There was a small tornado near Brighton, leading to a crabfall. The storm clouds were reported as an eery green colour. Coal picked up by a small tornado fell on Poole during a storm. The cold front associated with the depression led to more thunder and hailstorms on the 7th, particularly over Wales and the west: hailstones 75 mm in diameter were reported in a storm in Manchester, with spectacular lightning. Much damage. There were some unsettled westerlies in second week. It was then warm and settled before more severe thunderstorms on 23rd, with103 mm of rain near Alresford (Hants.).

1984-1987

Thundery hot and humid weather most of these Junes with Plume events impacting the United Kingdom

1988 & 1989

These 2 years saw little in the way of June Thunderstorms but a Heavy Hailstorm near Chatham on the 6th June 1989 the highlight on a very thundery day for the Uk.

 

I can put the 1990's and 2000's in as well if people want and also have all the events from Julys and Augusts if anyone is interested

[Peachy]

I'm very interested in hearing about the 1990's and 2000's thanks for this fantastic post. Great reading

[A Face like Thunder]

In the early hours of 1st June 1983, there were notable thunderstorms imported from France in the south of England, with particularly active cells at 1am and 3am. I was camping in Hampshire at the time and recall an interesting if sleepless night! These storms were described recently on another thread.  

[chapmanslade]

17 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Has anyone been able to narrow it down yet?

• Why in the 90s/00s we got massive imported MCSs
• Why in the 10s/20s we get forecast massive imported MCSs and get a damp squib?

Is it the high pressure systems, the average wind components, the temperature differential or the AO/NAO?  Surely someone's looked through the data and found a common denominator?

I think somebody posted about this last year and in fact there has been very little change in the incidence of MCS's in the UK - I'll see if I can find it

[alexisj9]

52 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

In the early hours of 1st June 1983, there were notable thunderstorms imported from France in the south of England, with particularly active cells at 1am and 3am. I was camping in Hampshire at the time and recall an interesting if sleepless night! These storms were described recently on another thread.  

Yes I remember that, was on a school trip camping in ashdown forest, what a night.