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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Although I cannot see anything stormy from the models I feel there must be something for Estofex to put the Southeast into a level 1 with the 50% lightning risk. I am no expert with forecasting storms, tracking/chasing them is my thing. I do tend to follow forecasts. That being said, I will stay at home tonight unless we have upgrades during the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

image.thumb.png.5a96f844a7fd30462745a4a4a247af18.png

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
49 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Video done from my chase in Kent 2 nights ago

 

Just watched the majority of your video Was it a hail producer in some parts? 

Had to watch with sound muted,where was your start and end point and where was the worst of the storm(s)?

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Have to say i Think the main show will be well inland from northern France and coastal Benelux. There’s a huge amount of mid level crud that will suppress any activity. Tonight forecast potential for the UK is already dead in the water if it wasn’t already. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Highly unlikely to see anything resembling a storm here i'm afraid, that bubble needs to be deflated a little i think

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
30 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Just watched the majority of your video Was it a hail producer in some parts? 

Had to watch with sound muted,where was your start and end point and where was the worst of the storm(s)?

As far as I could see there was no hail. I didn't see any and haven't seen any reports of hail. 

I started chasing near to Gravesend, hit the storm near to Faversham and chased it towards Herne Bay, although by this point it had largely died out/moved away.

I think the worst of the storms were further east and I missed them as I arrived too late. I arrived for what was the second dose of storms for Kent. The first dose which headed through Eastern Kent appeared stronger from the radar and lightning charts. The best for me was near to Faversham.

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

Havent seen any lightning or heard any thunder last 4 days. Gutted. And have only moved a bit further up the road.

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
25 minutes ago, Supacell said:

As far as I could see there was no hail. I didn't see any and haven't seen any reports of hail. 

I started chasing near to Gravesend, hit the storm near to Faversham and chased it towards Herne Bay, although by this point it had largely died out/moved away.

I think the worst of the storms were further east and I missed them as I arrived too late. I arrived for what was the second dose of storms for Kent. The first dose which headed through Eastern Kent appeared stronger from the radar and lightning charts. The best for me was near to Faversham.

Must have been rainfall intensity bouncing on your windscreen and road surface in that case.

Seriously debating a move along the coast! More snow and more storms,

Yes,we had a weak thunderstorm on the 17th and weak snowfall in the winter, but this seems to be a repeat pattern the majority of the time with weather excitement closer to North sea and continent.

Can you really justify a house move with weather prospects as high on the list as a good school in the area?

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
11 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Seriously debating a move along the coast! More snow and more storms,

Definitely a great idea from a storm-watching perspective if you can manage it.

I have a north view of the Severn estuary. It's nowhere near as good as having a view across the English Channel, for sue, but the Bristol channel does throw up the odd meteorological spectacle. I've videoed a few electrical storms and some other items of interest. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
7 minutes ago, dr weather said:

Definitely a great idea from a storm-watching perspective if you can manage it.

I have a north view of the Severn estuary. It's nowhere near as good as having a view across the English Channel, for sue, but the Bristol channel does throw up the odd meteorological spectacle. I've videoed a few electrical storms and some other items of interest. 

 

I'm just greedy! Used to live further East near Hastings.

Overall I was always pleased with severe weather over there,as I looked at weather forums in those days the point was always made west of Eastbourne often missed the worst storms and winter snowfall.

I now have the benefit of almost 6 years near Brighton and I can only recall two 8/10 or above storms.

Snowfall has been a joke throughout.

A lovely area,but the weather extremes are an itch that I can't scratch.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

A couple from the 9z, a mass of rain developing through this evening and overnight, not expecting it to be electrically active, possibly 1 or 2 weak storms within it, but mostly just an area of rain with heavy bursts. That's if it goes the way its showing,

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Again radar gives the game away. More light to moderate rain moving almost due north into southern counties in the next 3-4hours. I'd Probably expect the real dangerous weather to fire about 100miles south of Paris and then move north east to towards Luxembourg. Can't see anything electrical tonight, not even a Kent clipper. 

805154266_Screenshot2021-06-19140108.thumb.png.ceec4d1fa0b028f10c18db0c1f13bbf6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

So tonights already written off for any potential thunder then?

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Again radar gives the game away. More light to moderate rain moving almost due north into southern counties in the next 3-4hours. I'd Probably expect the real dangerous weather to fire about 100miles south of Paris and then move north east to towards Luxembourg. Can't see anything electrical tonight, not even a Kent clipper. 

805154266_Screenshot2021-06-19140108.thumb.png.ceec4d1fa0b028f10c18db0c1f13bbf6.png

Looks like you say, unfortunately. All that clag in NW France and across much of S England doesn’t help. Just 15°C at Heathrow, pathetic 

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1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Looks like you say, unfortunately. All that clag in NW France and across much of S England doesn’t help. Just 15°C at Heathrow, pathetic 

Yup, even Rennes in northern France is only 17C currently. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

This is getting stupid now, the forecast a few hours ago had us in the potential zone for thundery rain and in the last hour or so a load of models have shifted the potential eastwards again.

I wonder at this rate if we will get anything thundery here this year now, we have already since last August had no thunder at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yup, even Rennes in northern France is only 17C currently. 

Shame the frontal boundary isn’t 100-150 miles further W. Then things would be a lot more interesting!

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

Can you really justify a house move with weather prospects as high on the list as a good school in the area? 

Absolutely

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Shame the frontal boundary isn’t 100-150 miles further W. Then things would be a lot more interesting!

Typical luck of this rotten year so far! 

Ive just been reading the infamous El Gordo bust, and the build up to it! Good grief that must be the let down of many centuries, as charts then we’re showing circa 3000jkg CAPE and LI -12!! How that plume turned out so bad I’ll never know. This one didn’t have quite the same promise levels El Gordo had! 

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire

once again a day of absolutely nothing to get excited about. All the main action, as always, in France, moving NE and potentially clipping Kent. Nothing new there then. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
18 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

once again a day of absolutely nothing to get excited about. All the main action, as always, in France, moving NE and potentially clipping Kent. Nothing new there then. 

People need to remember, there's no storm forecast for the UK today, and no met warnings for any, so if something does turn up, it's a bonus.

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

People need to remember, there's no storm forecast for the UK today, and no met warnings for any, so if something does turn up, it's a bonus.

Think Estofex have a level 1 for SE England tonight which has lead to some head scratching...

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