Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like at the end of the month it could heat up again so hopefully not a long wait before the next opportunity for storms 

 

[oliverek7]

ok this is 9 days out but looking at ECM 00z and GFS 12z today there could be a low forming in the Bay of Biscay towards the end of the month, throwing up heat, humidity and the potential for the next thundery spell from the south. If the centre of these lows can remain in the Bay of Biscay or slightly further west then any storm events would be much more successful and widespread hopefully, without any Kent Clippers. We shall see how this all pans out! 

[wimblettben]

1 hour ago, viking_smb said:

what part of wales are you?

West, Southwest Wales.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

As usual, I’ve been watching the cams over in Europe, as that’s where our fun ended up. This plume just wasn’t meant to be! 

Bremerhaven, Kiel, maybe Hamburg the places to be looking soon I would say. There’s a supercell rolling on that has already produced a tornado in the Utrecht province. It managed to bring a pylon down 

[Jamie M]

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Jamie M beat me to it. Estofex seem keen on the SE getting another bite of the cherry. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Off the press just shortly,...for tomorrow.

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 19 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 20 Jun 2021

ISSUED 21:20 UTC Fri 18 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Disrupting upper trough will result in an upper low sliding southeastwards on Saturday from west of Ireland towards Biscay. At the same time, the remaining disturbance over Biscay/Iberia will lift northeastwards across France during the day, by the evening and night hours this will become increasingly negatively-tilted as it tracks across southern Britain, the associated PVA/divergence on the forward side (also in the left-exit region of a pronounced mid-level jet) providing broad ascent across the area and as a result surface pressure will lower and outbreaks of rain will tend to develop later on Saturday and especially overnight, with some embedded convection.

The speed at which the upper pattern evolves and flow backs varies between model guidance, and this will have some impact on how much the high Theta-W air over the nearby Continent can advect northwestwards into southern England (especially SE England) on Saturday evening and night. The vast majority of guidance suggests a mere graze with SE England, probably not helped by numerous thunderstorms that will develop over France on Saturday daytime which will tend to modify the environment to the north (i.e. closer to the English Channel). As such, confidence is low on much in the way of elevated thunderstorm / lightning activity over southern Britain, most likely a Kent Clipper but realistically lightning activity may be confined to mainland Europe.

 

That said, a marked dry intrusion is expected to push northwards across the English Channel, and this could induce some forced ascent and increase potential instability - and so would not entirely discount a few random elevated showers/weak thunderstorms developing almost anywhere over the English Channel into southern England and perhaps even the south Midlands / East Anglia late in the night - but exactly where these occur (if indeed any lightning does) is too uncertain to highlight any specific areas at this time. 

 

If confidence increases by Saturday morning, higher threat levels may be considered.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Storm_Sikher]

7 hours ago, Jamie M said:

 

One of the most impressive shots of a storm I've seen from NE Kent in a long while. I do recall seeing the massive shelf through the flashes. Good to see you got it! 

Thank you so much.

[Harry]

What the hell!! Thoughts??? Looks amazing but absolutely zero confidence it will happen!

Edited June 18, 2021 by Harry

[TJS1998Tom]

30 minutes ago, Harry said:

What the hell!! Thoughts??? Looks amazing but absolutely zero confidence it will happen!

Even Lincoln is in that warning, Lincoln is the last place I'd expect to get anything for tomorrow given it's going to be cloudy all day

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

 

Really, are they sure, lol

[Chris Lea-Alex]

From what I've read of it seems that our Atlantic dross and the Continental Plume are going to have a big game of tug of war tomorrow afternoon in France.  Estofex seem to be implying that the Plume will momentarily... okay rubbish analogy, that one or two elevated storms will slip through overnight.

Sounds like a repeat of Wednesday night 

 

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

From what I've read of it seems that our Atlantic dross and the Continental Plume are going to have a big game of tug of war tomorrow afternoon in France.  Estofex seem to be implying that the Plume will momentarily... okay rubbish analogy, that one or two elevated storms will slip through overnight.

Sounds like a repeat of Wednesday night 

 

A couple of elevated storms wouldn’t justify a level 1. Very odd

[Stabilo19]

Most models are suggesting a Kent clipper at best for Sat night.. but we'll see 

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

From what I've read of it seems that our Atlantic dross and the Continental Plume are going to have a big game of tug of war tomorrow afternoon in France.  Estofex seem to be implying that the Plume will momentarily... okay rubbish analogy, that one or two elevated storms will slip through overnight.

Sounds like a repeat of Wednesday night 

 

Yep this is the main bit aimed at us,

"Towards the night, strong WAA regime will support widespread storm initiation and one or two systems will cross S UK and BENELUX. As the boundary layer stabilizes and/or systems cross the frontal boundary, they will become elevated, reducing the severe wind gust threat to some degree. Nevertheless, isolated large hail and very heavy rainfall threat will still be present."

After recently I have my doubts, although Kent did get lucky the other night.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep this is the main bit aimed at us,

"Towards the night, strong WAA regime will support widespread storm initiation and one or two systems will cross S UK and BENELUX. As the boundary layer stabilizes and/or systems cross the frontal boundary, they will become elevated, reducing the severe wind gust threat to some degree. Nevertheless, isolated large hail and very heavy rainfall threat will still be present."

After recently I have my doubts, although Kent did get lucky the other night.

Also does that sound like it'll be heading west to east, rather than south to north. If so rather different lol, we'll see.

[Mapantz]

I think this is what Estofex are referring to:

It just does it's usual thing, moves NE in to the low countries.

[Daniel*]

I’ve honestly given up with this country… we will all get sweet fa that is my forecast  

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I think this is what Estofex are referring to:

It just does it's usual thing, moves NE in to the low countries.

GFS almost identical, has a large storm ‘clipping Kent’ almost dry further west. Could be very frustrating again. ECM not really interested at all.  

[StormChaseUK]

Looks rubbish,  onto July/August 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS almost identical, has a large storm ‘clipping Kent’ almost dry further west. Could be very frustrating again. ECM not really interested at all.  

Yes does look like the main bulk of any MCS or storms maybe to far East but there is also mention of some random cells firing of further West.. EURO4 kinda picks them up AROME goes crazy over it... Like you say some High res not really intrested.. 

NMM

AROME

ARPEGE

EURO 4

 

[tomp456]

Really looking forward to absolutely nothing toady 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Yes does look like the main bulk of any MCS or storms maybe to far East but there is also mention of some random cells firing of further West.. EURO4 kinda picks them up AROME goes crazy over it... Like you say some High res not really intrested.. 

NMM

AROME

ARPEGE

EURO 4

 

The last model seems the most realistic 

 

[sunnijim]

Tonight is the night guys!

No warnings, most here negative to any chances..= some thundery surprises and a rushed nowcast M.O warning overnight

[ChannelThunder]

8 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Tonight is the night guys!

No warnings, most here negative to any chances..= some thundery surprises and a rushed nowcast M.O warning overnight

I'd settle for one of the isolated, small storms drifting in from the channel late on that Dan mentions as a small possibility! That'd actually work quite well for photos!

Not sure what Estofex are smoking - anything severe this evening is ending up in Belgium and we all know it!