Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[sheikhy]

Latest icon 18z smashes south east,lincoln and mids with ridiculous amounts of rain tomorrow!!im actually quite worried in regards to what the ukv might show!!

[sparky1972]

46 minutes ago, Derbyshire_snow said:

Can clearly see something is firing up over Lincolnshire way as per usual it has gone dark In that direction.

Nothing here in sth lincs, all quiet and certainly feeling fresher, no chance of storms here over the next cpl of days.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Latest icon 18z smashes south east,lincoln and mids with ridiculous amounts of rain tomorrow!!im actually quite worried in regards to what the ukv might show!!

There's quite a lot of divergence between the hi-res models in regards to rainfall totals & placement.  The Met Office warning zone backs that up.

[Turquoise]

2 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Nothing here in sth lincs, all quiet and certainly feeling fresher, no chance of storms here over the next cpl of days.

yea anywhere north of Birmingham have no chance of storms for a while

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

There's quite a lot of divergence between the hi-res models in regards to rainfall totals & placement.  The Met Office warning zone backs that up.

Especially with how far north and west any thundery rain makes it!!!radar watch is gona be interesting!!seems to be a stubborn blob of rain across the home counties and central southern england that aint really going anywhere at the moment!!!

[ChannelThunder]

45 minutes ago, Peachy said:

The French cell has now crossed the channel is is making good gains NW and should soon catch the current system between London and the Midlands. If these two systems mix tomorrow and temps and humidity rise as expected we will see some spectacular thunder storms over the UK.

What cell crossing the channel? It's just a big messy area of rain.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

The water is evaporating off the roads at this time, must be rather warm

[Freeze]

51 minutes ago, Peachy said:

The French cell has now crossed the channel is is making good gains NW and should soon catch the current system between London and the Midlands. If these two systems mix tomorrow and temps and humidity rise as expected we will see some spectacular thunder storms over the UK.

The humidity cannot rise more than it was today it was like a sauna outside today. Very steamy at 99% most of the afternoon.

Edited June 17, 2021 by Freeze

[Jamie M]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, Jamie M said:

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Moderate upgrade mentioned in that!

[ChannelThunder]

Glad it's not just me that's still getting only the 12z UKV by the way! What could be causing the delay? M/O super computer broken? 

[Jamie M]

2 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Moderate upgrade mentioned in that!

Tomorrow is certainly going to be tricky for sure.

[Met4Cast]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

There's quite a lot of divergence between the hi-res models in regards to rainfall totals & placement.  The Met Office warning zone backs that up.

I’ve given up entirely with the Met warning areas, they have been shockingly poor this season. 

NW England being under the yellow thunderstorm warning yesterday as an example. 

[Delka]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I’ve given up entirely with the Met warning areas, they have been shockingly poor this season. 

NW England being under the yellow thunderstorm warning yesterday as an example. 

I know people are justifying the warning because of the high rain totals being more widespread and less likely confined to more southeastern areas but surely they could’ve issued a regular rain warning..

 

[alexisj9]

Strange about the UKV, wonder what's up.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Strange about the UKV, wonder what's up.

Maybe it looks to severe/disturbing to view for parts of england tomorrow!

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

i had to pier away from watching some of my favorite series(they can wait) tonight as i am peeled away looking at the next potential,...Oop's  i shouldn't of said that ha ha

I don't know what has happened to the UKV 15z as it should be out by now but here is the 12z with increments of 2 hours starting from 09:00 hrs to 22:00 hrs of Friday

and as @Mapantz said earlier up the post,the interest lies in that secondary feature from the IOW to the wash and up into east Lincolnshire-Humber

all speculative at this stage as is the nature of storms it is hard to predict even with the close/short range models

i will be getting things set and ready for tomorrow on what looks like my first chase this year and one chase that i could encounter some good storms since a good while back,i am going back some years when i chased a storm near Huntington,Camebridgeshire(cannot remember the year) when i saw a funnel to my east in the distance and the lightning was so prolific in front of me,great times

i have chased a few and sometimes a fail is in the bag but the fun in chasing brings it out of me

good luck to all tomorrow

[LightningLover]

Got my eye on you…

[Kasim Awan]

Tomorrow looks juicy Sussex / Kent / Essex.

Elevated instability triggered by an active wave -> 2000-3000 j/kg of cape, nice SRH profile on NMM indicating the model is anticipating organised development.

[Allseasons-Si]

What we are now looking out for is this circled in black

there is some clear sectors in the cloud cover in there that will keep this going as it stands.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Going to be a very interesting 24 hours folks. 

At the moment however, I wish I was in Belgium. Storm just to the south of it has gone into ‘nuts’ mode! 

May be worth loading up cams in Charleroi and maybe Brussels soon.

Edited June 17, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Harry]

Have got my beady eye on Saturday night too

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Going to be a very interesting 24 hours folks. 

At the moment however, I wish I was in Belgium. Storm just to the south of it has gone into ‘nuts’ mode! 

Yep been watching it on lightning maps, crazy. Willing it this way lol. On a serious note the more central one just starting has a chance. Think it might be what the poster above ringed in black.

[Peachy]

Looking very interesting for early Friday morning/ afternoon as the French cell has clearly shifted course and heading nicely towards the mess currently located between London and the SE midlands. If tomorrow's weather forecast is correct this thing could go boom by late Friday afternoon 

[Jamie M]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Tomorrow looks juicy Sussex / Kent / Essex.

Elevated instability triggered by an active wave -> 2000-3000 j/kg of cape, nice SRH profile on NMM indicating the model is anticipating organised development.

Hate to burst your bubble but you're looking at the wrong ESTOFEX forecast.

Seems they're not anticipating much.