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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
44 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

What I noticed from last night was that the lightning did not want to strike through the rain.

 

Here's some footage of last night's storms:

 

 

Yes the lightning was always where the light rain was, during heavy rain there was nothing. I guess the friction was between cells?

In fact we had an over head bit off lightning when rain was just almost drizzle, then the heaviest burst we had came along a min after.

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
6 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

Sun trying to come out here with a temp of 22.6C and a dewpoint of 20C

Looks like something starting to happen east of Chelmsford going by the radar so convection must be firing up.

Sun keeps coming out here, but we also have convective looking cloud, and sea mist. Very yuky feeling air.

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

Cell now gone up in East Suffolk about 15 miles from me, and first rumble just heard 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

Cell now gone up in East Suffolk about 15 miles from me, and first rumble just heard 

Does not surprise me. Feels like it could happen just about anywhere, where this humid air is and the sun comes out for longer than ten minutes.

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes the lightning was always where the light rain was, during heavy rain there was nothing. I guess the friction was between cells?

In fact we had an over head bit off lightning when rain was just almost drizzle, then the heaviest burst we had came along a min after.

Strong updrafts preventing the rain reaching the ground associated with the most intense convection perhaps. From experience the closest strikes are often associated with a lull in the rain in a storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hmmm. UKV seems very bullish for Friday. Will probably shift east again though.

image.thumb.png.c405d591f8782f0a5eba5bde87b8a362.png

Those are likely surface based storms formed in our own back garden, not a flaky, fickle, wind up plume

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
17 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Strong updrafts preventing the rain reaching the ground associated with the most intense convection perhaps. From experience the closest strikes are often associated with a lull in the rain in a storm.

That was definitely the case during the second wave of 'storms' when I was near Sittingbourne.  

I'll jump into fantasy science now:  Might it be that rain is negatively charged along with the majority lightning strikes?

Maybe the ground's positive charge gets pushed up towards the negative cloud base by the unstable air in the rain-free areas?

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Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
1 hour ago, Azuremoon2 said:

That's not what I said is it? It's the annoying predictions years in advance that always turn out to be wrong and then people moan it's a bust. Well yea. Watching the sky and following radar as it happens is the only way to know for sure where storms will hit. I get there are forecasts and models and that's fine but when somebody posts one that goes against all the current data and charts and gets people hyped only to then be completely obviously wrong is very annoying. Even the models that all say the same thing are wrong most of the time. Last 8 thunderstorm warnings up here have turned out to be beautiful sunny days and clear nights. 

Been happening for at least a dozen years on here, same for snow in winter, you'll get used to it. The climate has shifted substantially sadly but the models dont seen yo have that built in. Same hype and let downs year in year out.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
2 hours ago, Azuremoon2 said:

That's not what I said is it? It's the annoying predictions years in advance that always turn out to be wrong and then people moan it's a bust. Well yea. Watching the sky and following radar as it happens is the only way to know for sure where storms will hit. I get there are forecasts and models and that's fine but when somebody posts one that goes against all the current data and charts and gets people hyped only to then be completely obviously wrong is very annoying. Even the models that all say the same thing are wrong most of the time. Last 8 thunderstorm warnings up here have turned out to be beautiful sunny days and clear nights. 

I did wonder if yesterday was going to have a different outcome once those french cells neared the south coast so early on. Problem is that some thought that this was the forecasted main event - which it wasn’t - but it zapped the juice available for the follow-up cells later in the evening.

This happened before (in 2019, I think) ironically I was in the same spot I ended up at last night.

Everything basically happened at the very eastern extent of the forecast region and drained the potential for everywhere else. It’s worth remembering that this can happen - seems to be quite common with UK plumes imported from the continent.

Quite spectacular for those in the sweet spot though

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Interesting Estofex forecast for today! 

They’re on about a possible derecho forming in France if sufficient CAPE develops ahead of the pre-storm front! I wonder if we may see some segments of it later tonight if it holds out? It’ll probably veer NE into Benelux however. An interesting watch for today. Would be worth some cam viewing later perhaps. 

369939E1-DCA9-41EB-8513-86716CBA3162.png

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I did wonder if yesterday was going to have a different outcome once those french cells neared the south coast so early on. Problem is that some thought that this was the forecasted main event - which it wasn’t - but it zapped the juice available for the follow-up cells later in the evening.

This happened before (in 2019, I think) ironically I was in the same spot I ended up at last night.

Everything basically happened at the very eastern extent of the forecast region and drained the potential for everywhere else. It’s worth remembering that this can happen - seems to be quite common with UK plumes imported from the continent.

Quite spectacular for those in the sweet spot though

I think I know what you mean from 2019, I'm Another Kent Clipper by the way (lost the login).  The action stayed anchored to the French coast whilst a rapid expansion of drizzle ballooned over the uk.

Similar situation last night but with a bit of 24th June 2019 thrown in.  

I agree that if MCS #1 hadn't made it across we'd be in a different situation

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Absolutely bummed about this picture. Tried to recover it but there was a Cg to the left of this picture which landed about 200 yards in front of me and screwed my F-Stop up and totally took me by surprise.

Rustiness!!

IMG_1297.JPG

It still is a nice photo though Paul and a double Cg to boot

just a heads up,there is some cells firing up just near Nantes and maybe forming a line towards Caen.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

You guys are soo incredible, so dedicated to storm chasing it’s awe inspiringly amazing, I’ve just been catching up!...so much more enthusiastic than the model output discussion..you make that seem like a bore fest..!!..keep it up, I hope that you have many more opportunities from plume events this summer..you guys..and gals rock..all the best..Karl..I mean Jon snow... I mean frosty.... ..I mean Karl!  

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

You guys are soo incredible, so dedicated to storm chasing it’s awe inspiringly amazing, I’ve just been catching up!...so much more enthusiastic than the model output discussion..you make that seem like a bore fest..!!..keep it up, I hope that you have many more opportunities from plume events this summer..you guys..and gals rock..all the best..Karl..I mean John snow..I mean Karl!  

 

What are you doing in here!!!,...get back to the MOD thread,...they need you,...just kidding Karl

just a side note more to do with convective discussion,...i finish work tomorrow at 2pm and i see that there are chances of more storms again mainly in the SE,Edit @Zak M i see above that you have posted the UKV and looks V interesting,i have run the UKV through for tomorrow afternoon/evening and Lincolnshire looks my best place to go at this stage as this will be nearer on my doorstep

i am going to get some stuffs ready and be prepared,off for now and i will watch up with you lot later on

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Suns been out here now for a while, now it's hot and humid rather than just humid. Drip, drip, drip. Yuk. 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

Need I be greedy but a shower wouldn't be too bad to clear the air right now! 

1510806625_Screenshot_20210617-154013_WSView.thumb.jpg.69345d83a56b14737474e8b07840ea3a.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Suns been out here now for a while, now it's hot and humid rather than just humid. Drip, drip, drip. Yuk. 

Honestly, don’t worry..be happy ..I think you have more storms too look forward too . Tomoz or da next day..etc!....every little thing, gonna be alright!  ..just had a Bob Marley moment there! Lol 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Honestly, don’t worry..be happy ..I think you have more storms too look forward too ..every little thing, gonna be alright!  

Problem is, they won't clear the air, we've got this storm food for days yet. Whether Strom's decide to form or not.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex

20c, dew point 18c, RH 95% it's real steamy outside haven't experienced air like this for a while, no wind either.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I spent all night in Kent last night. On the way home the tiredness took over and so rather than risk the long drive home I got myself a hotel room for the day near to the M11/M25 junction. Thus I was in position for if anything fired this afternoon. It was a big "if" though and I think the cloud cover prevented the cap breaking. Despite the fact its like a sauna with all the humidity.

My next chase opportunity will be the weekend and so have my eyes on Saturday night/Sunday 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What are you doing in here!!!,...get back to the MOD thread,...they need you,...just kidding Karl

just a side note more to do with convective discussion,...i finish work tomorrow at 2pm and i see that there are chances of more storms again mainly in the SE,Edit @Zak M i see above that you have posted the UKV and looks V interesting,i have run the UKV through for tomorrow afternoon/evening and Lincolnshire looks my best place to go at this stage as this will be nearer on my doorstep

i am going to get some stuffs ready and be prepared,off for now and i will watch up with you lot later on

I have a call out tomo in ... Caterham! Woop!

Think that’s it for tomo - workwise - so after that I’ll probably just park up somewhere and wait to see what happens

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