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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Another strong storm forecast for the southeast, another bust for me. Heard about five distant rumbles about 12.30am, didn't see any flashes though, and that was it. Happy for those who saw some action but for me personally I give up.

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
2 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Quite astonishing how Norfolk is now too far west, having been too far east in recent years! Bring back the 1980s...

Bring back accurate weather forecasting! 

MCS indeed. Just some rain.

I suggest some of the experts ( drama queens) on here don't give up the day job.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.022a49c90455c0d94f45e9ac5d3325e2.png

Another phone snap from last night.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.022a49c90455c0d94f45e9ac5d3325e2.png

Another phone snap from last night.

Edit: double post for some reason, can't seem to delete

Edited by Jamie M
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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Nice to see some flashes and hear rumbles but it all went to the west of me and nothing came overhead. Still nice to see.

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
10 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Always the same old story on here in these situations, people throwing in the towel before the event has even properly started lmao. 

Well, we were right, weren't we?  

I was throwing in the towel because I believed it was over by 10pm for anywhere west of the far SE corner, which turned out to be exactly the case, but it got dismissed as the event not having started yet. A bit frustrating, because I feel I've seen enough of these scenarios to know when it looks to be game over. Like @Alderc said: weak, messy radar returns don't just become electrified, especially when they're to the west of an MCS like last night. As expected, it all just weakened even further as it moved across southern and central areas. 

I appreciate nocturnal cooling and how past events have gone bang after midnight, but you have to look at each individual scenario, and with this one, that was never going to happen.

 

All very disappointing. Now 23 months since I've seen a CG at nighttime, but at least @Paul Sherman got some - cracking pics mate! 

The wait for a plume this year goes on. I'm not going to count one and a half Kent Clippers!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
9 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Well, we were right, weren't we?  

I was throwing in the towel because I believed it was over by 10pm for anywhere west of the far SE corner, which turned out to be exactly the case, but it got dismissed as the event not having started yet. A bit frustrating, because I feel I've seen enough of these scenarios to know when it looks to be game over. Like @Alderc said: weak, messy radar returns don't just become electrified, especially when they're to the west of an MCS like last night. As expected, it all just weakened even further as it moved across southern and central areas. 

I appreciate nocturnal cooling and how past events have gone bang after midnight, but you have to look at each individual scenario, and with this one, that was never going to happen.

 

All very disappointing. Now 23 months since I've seen a CG at nighttime, but at least @Paul Sherman got some - cracking pics mate! 

The wait for a plume this year goes on. I'm not going to count one and a half Kent Clippers!

Would not class that last night as a MCS. A MCS to me is a bowl shape, and most areas of it are electrified, from east to west, north to South, the East slightly more perhaps. The storm over Central France last night was definitely a MCS

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Would not class that last night as a MCS. A MCS to me is a bowl shape, and most areas of it are electrified, from east to west, north to South, the East slightly more perhaps. The storm over Central France last night was definitely a MCS

Fair enough. I just went for 'MCS' as it was a large area of precip. with multiple thundery cores on its east side  Either way, it certainly seemed to eat up a lot of the available energy last night, leaving a few scraps for some small cells that followed in its path.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Would not class that last night as a MCS. A MCS to me is a bowl shape, and most areas of it are electrified, from east to west, north to South, the East slightly more perhaps. The storm over Central France last night was definitely a MCS

In theory the storm that passed the SE last night was an MCS and is a common mistake I made throughout my degree. An MCS is described as... a. A mesoscale system, b. A system that is convective. Now a number of meteorologists also like to use a couple other definitions alongside, for example: A convective system which is longer than 100km in length and two, convective activity is long-lived (4-6+ hours).

So yeah it was an MCS last night, but just not one of those monster MCS that we saw over S/C France last night as you said

Last night, just shows how much we still have left to learn about Meteorology. Ultimately it wasn't any forecasters fault because the models showed what they showed and that was a very decent event last night, it's just a case of us needing a better understanding of our atmosphere unfortunately. So it is no surprise that elevated convection is currently one of Met Offices most important areas of study atm.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
19 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Would not class that last night as a MCS. A MCS to me is a bowl shape, and most areas of it are electrified, from east to west, north to South, the East slightly more perhaps. The storm over Central France last night was definitely a MCS

I dislike them intensely, referring to them as Muckfilled Cruddy Scraps....

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

I'm stuck as to whether I want the Storms or not, love storms but I've got a maths test tomorrow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
2 hours ago, Ellozee said:

Some more wide angles of the storm front ✌️

IMG_7558.jpg

IMG_7557.jpg

IMG_7562-2.jpg

Superb photos there.  Take a closer look underneath the very edge of the structure on the right hand side, there appears to be a very thin funnel cloud.  Is it possible?  Do you have other photos to compare?  

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Next best chance looks to be on Monday, if we get the low right over us. Could be a very decent surface based convective day. We just need it not to dive too far south and get a cruddy easterly! 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Next best chance looks to be on Monday, if we get the low right over us. Could be a very decent surface based convective day. We just need it not to dive too far south and get a cruddy easterly! 

Haven't had a surface based stormsince 2014 here.

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire

All that hype yesterday for what was, yep you guessed it, a Kent clipper. Looks like today will follow same pattern. Messy radar returns last night were not going to spark up as all the energy had been used up from the first MCS that made it to Kent. At least I know next time to not get excited when models like UKV get it so wrong lol

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

A very unremarkable evening/night, again so much promise but little in the way of delivery. Mostly heavy rain with a couple of bangs and flashes mixed in, more like thundery rain than a thunderstorm! 

The morning storms haven't materialised either, and I think we'll stay dry here today, although the air is very muggy and could do with some rain that clears the air. 

Tomorrow looks like a washout, maybe a few claps of thunder to be had on Sunday, but I won't get my hopes up. 

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Day 1 Convective Outlook: Thu 17 Jun 2021

 

image.thumb.png.6566c5805720201f96f4e6331c0a7a6a.png

 

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

Well it seems one loud bit of thunder woke me up in my sleep but only that one bit of thunder, strange but im not going to be mad on something i love 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
50 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Haven't had a surface based stormsince 2014 here.

Guessing you would need a Northwesterly or N’Erly or a Southerly over a very warm English Channel! 

We tend to do just as good if not better up here with SB storms rather than plume based. 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Guessing you would need a Northwesterly or N’Erly or a Southerly over a very warm English Channel! 

We tend to do just as good if not better up here with SB storms rather than plume based. 

I think it drifted up from the south east over warm sst and hit the Brighton Worthing area on the morning of the 28th July 2014 about 7-8 am. Constant flashes every few seconds with hail, Worthing train station was under a meter of water and lots of homes flooded. Haven't had anything surface based like that since.

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Posted
  • Location: Hamstreet Kent, recently of Pagham nr Bognor Regis
  • Location: Hamstreet Kent, recently of Pagham nr Bognor Regis

Too far west here again last night. Just occasional flashes during the overnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Deal, Kent
  • Location: Deal, Kent
1 hour ago, Rush2112 said:

Superb photos there.  Take a closer look underneath the very edge of the structure on the right hand side, there appears to be a very thin funnel cloud.  Is it possible?  Do you have other photos to compare?  

So glad you spotted this I was also unsure. I'll compare with my other shots later on

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

It's a shame it was a bust for most, but forecasting this stuff is a nightmare. I'd rather be grumpy from a bust than caught out without a camera. Keep the forecasts coming!

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