Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Sam jackson88]

firing off the coast of northern France 

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

People keep saying give it a chance, I'm sorry radar returns like those in the purple box don't just fire up, the atmosphere just doesn't have enough energy to sustain strong updrafts. To be fair I posted at 3pm I thought that could be the case and I see little to change my mind.

This is effectively a Sussex / Kent clipper now. 

This was my concern earlier and led to my throwing in the towel early post a few pages back!

[Allseasons-Si]

Stable  conditions here

anyways,...i think the forecast is spot on ATM if i am being honest,...still early days(well evening) for things to kick off big time from now until the early hours,the night is still young

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Everyone just wait. They said ‘overnight’ and it’s still just late evening. There’s clearly potential. The elevated layer needs to cool and you’ll begin to see development in the mid-channel from very soon

[Turquoise]

said yesterday that all the runs were suggesting a Kent clipper as per. And again that has been the case. Nothing much left in Channel to get excited about. Hopefully tomorrow will be better

[Met4Cast]

Always the same old story on here in these situations, people throwing in the towel before the event has even properly started lmao. 

[ChannelThunder]

Not sure if those are false strikes to the SW of the IOW, but I'll keep my eye out in that direction next few mins!

[Mike Poole]

I wouldn’t be giving up on storms yet if you are east of the A34:

The system developing behind looks more organised to me…

[Southern Storm]

3 minutes ago, Lance M said:

This was my concern earlier and led to my throwing in the towel early post a few pages back!

The night is young my friend

[Daniel*]

People that say it’s a flop haven't been around long enough, many a time many have gone to bed and suddenly it all fired up in early hours.

[Sam jackson88]

Just now, Lance M said:

Not sure if those are false strikes to the SW of the IOW, but I'll keep my eye out in that direction next few mins!

its showing up on lightningmaps and lightning pro on my phone so unless its ghost strikes, could be something starting or preping for later hmmmm

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Everyone just wait. They said ‘overnight’ and it’s still just late evening. There’s clearly potential. The elevated layer needs to cool and you’ll begin to see development in the mid-channel from very soon

But you won't where there is already mid-level moderate showery activity, the lids been partially lifted and nocturnal cooling won't really help.

[Mapantz]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Everyone just wait. They said ‘overnight’ and it’s still just late evening. There’s clearly potential. The elevated layer needs to cool and you’ll begin to see development in the mid-channel from very soon

I disagree.

Ultimately, this was only ever going to be an event for the far SE. Some of us were just hanging on to a thread that things might change, but it's clear that is not the case.

Away from the SE, it'll just be light to moderate rain which will eventually fade.

[Allseasons-Si]

The de-stabilization is/will be happening in the black circle i have drawn.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Not sure if those are false strikes to the SW of the IOW, but I'll keep my eye out in that direction next few mins!

Yes they are. Again Real Time Lightning generating lots of false strikes well out of the action zone. 

[davehsug]

Absolutely zero chance of anything here, but I'm just so happy to be lightning detector &radar watching again! Isn't summer great!

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I disagree.

Ultimately, this was only ever going to be an event for the far SE. Some of us were just hanging on to a thread that things might change, but it's clear that is not the case.

Away from the SE, it'll just be light to moderate rain which will eventually fade.

I agree mate

[Guest]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The de-stabilization is/will be happening in the black circle i have drawn.

Yes, and will only affect east Sussex and Kent.

[LightningLover]

Still hammering down with rain here, can just make out frequent dim flashing from the Kent cells, and there are occasional closer ones

[Luke Best]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

But you won't where there is already mid-level moderate showery activity, the lids been partially lifted and nocturnal cooling won't really help.

And that's my big concern right now. 

Every plume event I can remember that started out a bit drizzly ended up a damp squib. 

Others where skies remained clear or Ac-y have gone bang very quickly after nightfall. 

[alexisj9]

Ok can here the storm watched it approaching from the SW while clouds above were moving NNE. May not be elevated.

[Turquoise]

yea its a typical Kent clipper I'm afraid. Looks like round 2 in a few hours but once again clipping Kent and Sussex. 

[summer blizzard]

Pleased with the stuff near Exeter and Cardiff, could get further north eventually.

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes they are. Again Real Time Lightning generating lots of false strikes well out of the action zone. 

Yep, can confirm nothing going on in that direction except more rain!

[oliverek7]

Ok vent incoming— Ugh, why does everything get sooo hyped up by all the weather forecasters etc and looks promising on the models and then always ends up being a wet mess over London and much of the SE with a small little area of lightning on the coasts. This has happened for nearly 3 years straight with these import events. It’s just so deflating to see this happen again and again  I’m longing for something like 26th May 2018 at least these days. Yes there’s another few days of potential but we’ll just have to see.