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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I'm fairly confident that they'll be no electrical activity west of the IoW, overnight. 

I'm moving on to Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Looks fairly uninspiring anywhere west of Kent at the moment.. long night ahead though 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'm guessing this is the area to keep an eye on, not holding much hope for our area but looking very active 

image.png

Not really. That's too far away. it may loosely be connected to potential activity tomorrow night in the far SE shown on some models

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'm guessing this is the area to keep an eye on, not holding much hope for our area but looking very active 

image.png

Starting to move inland, so now's the time to head to the Netherlands....

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Looks fairly uninspiring anywhere west of Kent at the moment.. long night ahead though 

Definitely a first round Kent clipper. I really ought to buy a yacht or something, just to get into Area 51.....

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Got some great pictures and videos with my camera will attach in the morning. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bournemouth
11 minutes ago, Dan Clow said:

20210616_214228.thumb.jpg.1da3632f3028c5657b4cf54bfa541046.jpg

Actually surprised nothing is firing yet through the channel cos things look to be building in my eyes.

It's certainly warm and muggy. If no electrical activity kicks in shortly after nightfall I'm going to call it a day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

recorded some lovely purple lightning and rumbling thunder, can't wait what else is going to happen later on 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Impressively heavy rainfall here, I stood outside for a couple of minutes and I'm absolutely soaked, can hear distant rumbles of thunder. 

Once this MCS clears off NEwards hopefully we can advect in higher theta-w ahead of the developing cells across the channel/N France, in theory we should start to see those becoming increasingly thundery in the next couple of hours. 

East of the IOW, keep watching those radars! 

West of the IOW, I probably wouldn't hold your breath..

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Just now, Luke Best said:

It's certainly warm and muggy. If no electrical activity kicks in shortly after nightfall I'm going to call it a day. 

Spark south west of Weymouth just then. Has to be so close to something happening. I'm giving it another hour yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, lightning and erm thunder
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex

Still got the odd close rumble and flash down here in bexhill, still raining heavily, most activity seems to be to the NE as can see it lighting up the skies that way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
1 minute ago, Electricmumma said:

Still got the odd close rumble and flash down here in bexhill, still raining heavily, most activity seems to be to the NE as can see it lighting up the skies that way. 

Keep an eye on things later, this might only be the first round!

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

Cheap window shot of a flash.

DSC_0903.thumb.JPG.63225fdb165642b0a562094d0ebc7215.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
2 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:

question is ecmwf better than gfs ?

 

The short answer would be 'yes', but that doesn't mean GFS can't, and doesn't, outperform it on regular occasion. For instance, GFS had a really good grip of the MCS affecting Kent right now over 48 hours ago, and I believe it was the only model that did.

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12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm fairly confident that they'll be no electrical activity west of the IoW, overnight. 

I'm moving on to Friday.

People keep saying give it a chance, I'm sorry radar returns like those in the purple box don't just fire up, the atmosphere just doesn't have enough energy to sustain strong updrafts. To be fair I posted at 3pm I thought that could be the case and I see little to change my mind.

This is effectively a Sussex / Kent clipper now. 

1863911631_Screenshot2021-06-16220327.thumb.png.04a23d528d5ffd06d13c6a1211edeeb9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: storms lightning thunder
  • Location: Southampton
1 minute ago, Lance M said:

The short answer would be 'yes', but that doesn't mean GFS can't, and doesn't, outperform it on regular occasion. For instance, GFS had a really good grip of the MCS affecting Kent right now over 48 hours ago, and I believe it was the only model that did.

thank you for answering as i was a bit confused. thank you 

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Awesome thunderstorm here in Ashford!! - From what looked to be a gust front with a wall cloud, turned into bright strikes, flooding rain and more!

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