Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

I'm still not convinced the netweather radar is on top form.

It's a direct feed from the Met Office. It'll be problems their end unfortunately.

[Darandio]

41 minutes ago, steve86 said:

I have an iPaf course tomorrow in southampton. Wonder what the weather be like stuck up a cherry picker???

As opposed to Sam's iFap course?

[WeatherWatchmanG]

I hope I don't see the storms until the origonal forecast of 11pm nothing earlier.

[Ciderwithrosie]

From my front door .piccy one , photo of back garden. View piccy 2 .

Hopefully there will be rain later on tonight ,

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

It's a direct feed from the Met Office. It'll be problems their end unfortunately.

Thank you, its really annoying. I'm convinced a sizable portion of the anvil over the channel is being picked up as moderate/heavy rain. Any reports from Shoreham / Brighton it should be chucking it down there now according to radar. 

[markw2680]

Although i don’t expect much this far west you just never no as the night gets going. I’m waiting patiently for the usual comments of its a bust before it gets going, already slight hints of that in some comments lol. Anyway the night is young and ready to go bang later on tonight 

Edited June 16, 2021 by markw2680
Mistake

[StormChaseUK]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Although i don’t expect much this far west you just never no as the night gets going. I’m waiting patiently for the usual comments of its a bust before it gets going, already slight hints of that in some comments lol. Anyway the night is young and ready to go bang later on tonight 

The west could see elevated storms later in the night I reckon, even up to Midlands.    The SE TS at the moment are channel homegrowns popping off.
 

[Wet'n'Dry]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Thank you, its really annoying. I'm convinced a sizable portion of the anvil over the channel is being picked up as moderate/heavy rain. Any reports from Shoreham / Brighton it should be chucking it down there now according to radar. 

It's been raining at Brighton for half an hour now 

Webcam Brighton Pier

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

---

Webcam Veduta del Brighton Pier

 

[Kasim Awan]

2 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

The initiation of the elevated storms is quite different from the initiation of the surface based ones over the channel. Otherwise every surface based storm leaving northern France would reach us still active as an elevated storm. And down here we all know that doesn’t happen.

The surface based / mid level activity earlier has now progressed into elevated material confirmed by lightning elevation data of 40,000ft recently over the Channel.

[tomp456]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Thank you, its really annoying. I'm convinced a sizable portion of the anvil over the channel is being picked up as moderate/heavy rain. Any reports from Shoreham / Brighton it should be chucking it down there now according to radar. 

It's not exactly chucking it down. Its just steady. 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Sticky city here, will have to persuade Goldie Corn and her 8 peepers that bedding down outside tonight is a non starter!

[Superstormuk]

We currently have grey, overcast skies here in Brighton. There was also a shower about 30 mins ago, but no thunder. The air does feel very unstable, so my fingers are still crossed for later this evening.

[Turquoise]

seems to be tiny tiny cells dotted all along the channel starting to show red colours....this is the start...and some are much more west than anticipated. Im in Cheshire which is far away from any of the warning zones however our local weather forecast came on the news and they mentioned thunderstorms overnight here too....interesting

[Ben Sainsbury]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The surface based / mid level activity earlier has now progressed into elevated material confirmed by lightning elevation data of 40,000ft recently over the Channel.

Yeah, storm wouldn't make it that far in the channel without becoming elevated. Though I'd imagine it only has a slightly elevated base hence the continual weakening.

[MP-R]

47 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

The one that interests me with this plume.  Up and until now, there was none of the usual muck at high altitude.  It was crystal clear blue skies today.   That's already a different to events

 

Not your typical plume this one - no dirty air being fed in ahead of it from the SE, hence also why the main area for thunderstorms is limited to the SE and EA with a much lower risk elsewhere.

[ChannelThunder]

It'll be interesting to see what the 15z UKV does with this. It should be released before 8pm. I was hoping I'd already be out getting into position before that particular one rolled out!

[StormChaseUK]

For overnight storms you need a rash on radar not a whopping great clump of thundery rain/cloud pancake. 

If you look west of Guernsey it has more of a thundery shower appearance on the radar.

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Yeah, storm wouldn't make it that far in the channel without becoming elevated. Though I'd imagine it only has a slightly elevated base hence the continual weakening.

Yes, somewhat weakening, models are split on whether we get the elevated initiation during early hours.

[Robbie Garrett]

49 minutes ago, Smokeone said:

Great picture. Nice to see you on here. Seen your videos on Flyer Forum (I'm a photographer from Lee on Solent airfield)

I'll definitely have to fly in, you'll hopefully take a snap of me?   Thanks for watching.

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Not your typical plume this one - no dirty air being fed in ahead of it from the SE, hence also why the main area for thunderstorms is limited to the SE and EA with a much lower risk elsewhere.

Yeah I thought just as much, it's very plume like now. I think we are in with a good chance due to the UHI.

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

For overnight storms you need a rash on radar not a whopping great clump of thundery rain/cloud pancake. 

If you look west of Guernsey it has more of a thundery shower appearance on the radar.

The 'rash' was how July 2017's event started, and that was a 10/10 plume event!

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

seems to be tiny tiny cells dotted all along the channel starting to show red colours....this is the start...and some are much more west than anticipated. Im in Cheshire which is far away from any of the warning zones however our local weather forecast came on the news and they mentioned thunderstorms overnight here too....interesting

I can say with pretty much 100% certainty that there will be no storms in Cheshire tonight.

[ChannelThunder]

Radar developments near the Channel Islands are certainly encouraging. Perhaps with nocturnal cooling coming into play over the next hour or two, they'll become electrified.

[matty40s]

All the main action is still in the Bay of Biscay.

 

[DanDorsetUK]

Just now, Lance M said:

Radar developments near the Channel Islands are certainly encouraging. Perhaps with nocturnal cooling coming into play over the next hour or two, they'll become electrified.

Yes looking good that! Look at the cloud development over there. Fast rising.

[Jeffers146]

Hoping Lincoln gets something at some point. Not sure what our chances are however excited me will be radar watching all night. Good luck to anyone who gets the light shows .