Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Sam jackson88]

Just now, Purplepixii said:

Blue skies have gone, lots of cloud around now & myhead has just started to feel “squeezed”

I know it feels like someone's trying to crack my head, pressure headache is forming. Good sign tho

[Eagle Eye]

Almost constant lightning from that storm in the North of France, perhaps showing a little bit of a taster for later. 

[WeatherWatchmanG]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Almost constant lightning from that storm in the North of France, perhaps showing a little bit of a taster for later. 

All too often what starts in France does not arrive or reflect what the south of England will see.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, WeatherWatchmanG said:

All too often what starts in France does not arrive or reflect what the south of England will see.

We've had it before we're it's got stronger, I remember in July 2019 where I was as an example

[chionomaniac]

Just seen a dp of 18°C over at headcorn aerodrome  on xc. That’s pretty juicy for the UK. Especially as I looked at the RH at various levels for this evening and there will be a lot of moisture up there

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Yep, that's my take on the current situation too.

The surface based storms over North France now will progress into elevated storms and affect south east England later.

Anything overnight will initiate as elevated and is unlikely to originate straight from the Bay of Biscay.

[Eskimo]

Looking at the radar returns, I'll summise that anything severe ie. Large hail, frequent c2g lightning etc is going to be rather limited away from the far SE corner with the biggest threat really being rainfall - the channel is killing the energy and we've seen that more often than not.

A lot of elevated stuff is likely though tonight with frequent c2c lightning and gusty winds.

[chionomaniac]

I think it is a case of ignoring the surface based storms over northern France atm. Our storms will come from the higher instability aloft later on

[tomp456]

 

This was almost two years ago. Filmed from Worthing seafront. The storm hit around Eastbourne/Hastings. I'll 'av some of this tonight please! 

Edited June 16, 2021 by tomp456

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think it is a case of ignoring the surface based storms over northern France atm. Our storms will come from the higher instability aloft later on

I have to disagree here, there is no reason why surface based can not evolve into elevated. That is quite common with Channel MCS systems. In fact, we should be doing the opposite. This initiation has provided an optimal environment for further development in the vicinity.

Additional stand-alone elevated initiation is also likely circa 1am + which is what I think you are getting at.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Hirudine]

1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

The marathon streaming session begins....a little instability in the skies over the West Midlands is becoming more apparent.....We might be lucky enough to be able to catch one of the incoming rounds....or maybe not....trust in the EWN

As a hayfever sufferer, I'm hoping for some rain at least. If we get any thunder and lightning, that'll be the icing on the cake

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think it is a case of ignoring the surface based storms over northern France atm. Our storms will come from the higher instability aloft later on

Agreed - I'd be surprised if the storms across N France at the moment make it across the channel, looking at the lightning distribution it seems to be dying as soon as it moves into the channel, unsurprising given they're surface based. 

We wont see what'll potentially bring storms to the UK on the radars for a good few hours yet. Still waiting for plume destabilisation to initiate.

[VillagePlank]

Drawing a line between the Isle of Wight and The Wash, anywhere east of this have a very good chance of seeing storms this evening. Latest model guidance, 12z GFS, flattens the cells trajectory to a more easterly direction, meaning that Norfolk could miss out. However, you and I both know that the 12z has been in the pub since it opened at 11am this morning and cobbled something together after 4 pints, 3 shots, and an encouter with the barmaid.

Of course, all best guesses. Radar is best option now.

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by VillagePlank

[tomp456]

Will any early evening starter wreck the main course for late evening/overnight? I assume not if the storms are elevated? 

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Any web cams found yet showing these storms from the sea?

[ModestMention]

If it gets tasty I'll probably drive as far as  Cheesefoot Head. 

[Guest]

I'm still not happy with the situation. Lots of mid and high level crud spilling northwards plus a large anvil now forming over Cherbourg. 

[Eagle Eye]

First part of the mess is approaching.

[TJS1998Tom]

First thoughts on Lincoln areas, how promising does it look tonight? I've seen some models bring it close but mostly for the South

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Alderc said:

I'm still not happy with the situation. Lots of mid and high level crud spilling northwards plus a large anvil now forming over Cherbourg. 

Won’t matter too much if it’s nocturnal cooling, and destabilisation of the EML. It’s for daytime heating the next day when you want to be free of mid level crud. 

[chionomaniac]

18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I have to disagree here, there is no reason why surface based can not evolve into elevated. That is quite common with Channel MCS systems. In fact, we should be doing the opposite. This initiation has provided an optimal environment for further development in the vicinity.

Additional stand-alone elevated initiation is also likely circa 1am + which is what I think you are getting at.

The initiation of the elevated storms is quite different from the initiation of the surface based ones over the channel. Otherwise every surface based storm leaving northern France would reach us still active as an elevated storm. And down here we all know that doesn’t happen.

[VillagePlank]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm still not happy with the situation. Lots of mid and high level crud spilling northwards plus a large anvil now forming over Cherbourg. 

GFS 6z well ahead of you there, Alderc.

It forecast cloud cover as well as later thunderstorms.

Edited June 16, 2021 by VillagePlank

[Ben Sainsbury]

ARPEGE 12z looking very different for tonight...

[Scott H]

Keeping a keen and jealous eye from Belfast! Best of luck folks

[VillagePlank]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ARPEGE 12z looking very different for tonight...

It's 6z also has the action much more west than GFS, and MetO, and ECMWF. It's on it's own there, but you never know ....