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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

I think these cells will die off in the Channel, if i'm not mistaken that the storms need to be elevated in nature therefore it wont be for another couple of hours yet and would explode in the channel as they wont be affected by sea temps.

The set up favours a clustering and development of these surface based storms into an elevated group. 

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted
1 minute ago, steveh19 said:

Very true. Just head to the beach, we have a great view out to sea and of Brighton. 

If it's meant to be, I'll be around Worthing Pier ready to snap the action

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Looks like there were problems with the radar and now we can see the storm in full fruition on the latest frame. Don't think it looks as bad as first feared.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Mitch the motorbike storm Community Regular

Mitch the motorbike storm

Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

About the same chance as slimstairs. Would think the most vulnerable object in a house would be the TV aerial or chimney.

Im so confused , does that mean a high chance or low

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Phwoar, it’s been a while since I felt a warm southerly breeze like this. All Cu field at the moment here, nothing yet in the mid levels (although that’s to be expected) 

Fear not, PLENTY of mid-level stuff down here with your name on it!

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

We'll see, I think Broadstairs will be fine. Can see stuff over France, but sky here has nothing yet.

 

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sendandreturn Contributor

sendandreturn

Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Hampshire
  • Location: Southsea, Hampshire
Posted
16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m already starting to wonder whether west of the red line is already game over....

4B6097BE-F01D-4765-8654-B8C78B7D8632.thumb.jpeg.ee58d6a598b6947707c7e635afded346.jpeg

BBC had a second wave of stuff (technical term) for Hamps/Dorst, 3-5 am?

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Freeze Seasoned

Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex
Posted

Feeling rather warm and moist here now in the sun, still blue skies here. Could be a sweet spot here or once!

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Matty88 Aficionado

Matty88

Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
Posted

My first venture into the storms forum this year.... the prospects of some storms have brought me back out!! 

Although I can't say it's looking like a severe storm event with the current ingredients in play, it certainly looks like tonight could throw some lightning my way in Ely, Cambridgeshire. All eyes will be on this evenings developments high up - as others have said, 7-8pm onwards it should hopefully 'blow up' over the channel and head over the SE. Could even be later than 8pm until this happens. 

 

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Ciderwithrosie Enthusiast

Ciderwithrosie

Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
Posted
50 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

 

Aww that's sad. Was really hoping for something.

My weather station has the humidity dropping in Taunton where I am as well. We might get rain edit, we are getting rain I can hear it on conservatory roof.  Just going to get washing in . 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Sky so beautifully blue and scorching sunshine here, so plenty of insolation. I do wonder if we could squeeze a cheeky little surfaced based homegrown before the evening is out.  

As for the activity over France, it looks to me as if it’s travelling a lot more NNE than I thought it would. I still think the IOW to the wash and eastwards will see the greatest chances as we head down to the wire.

But this could be the first of two or three possible rounds over the next few days! It isn’t a one shot opportunity like some plumes. 

 

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Dave Clarke Rookie

Dave Clarke

Posted
  • Location: Beckton, E London 8m ASL
  • Location: Beckton, E London 8m ASL
Posted
7 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

My first venture into the storms forum this year.... the prospects of some storms have brought me back out!! 

Although I can't say it's looking like a severe storm event with the current ingredients in play, it certainly looks like tonight could throw some lightning my way in Ely, Cambridgeshire. All eyes will be on this evenings developments high up - as others have said, 7-8pm onwards it should hopefully 'blow up' over the channel and head over the SE. Could even be later than 8pm until this happens. 

 

It's severe due to possibly high rainfall rates

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Ciderwithrosie Enthusiast

Ciderwithrosie

Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
Posted

Humidity has jumped up as well from an hour ago , but the breeze is fresh and I'm not convinced about any crash bang whallops for us however nice . 

The sun is now out with a few spots of rain still around.  Love the British weather! 

16238533798474594598695226722049.jpg

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thunderhead 2005 Contributor

thunderhead 2005

Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
Posted
Just now, Surrey said:

The stuff leaving France now as far as I can see on models is extra and nothing to do with later.. look in the bay of biscay

Yeah i thought that too, seemed to be killed off as soon as they leave france

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Ciderwithrosie Enthusiast

Ciderwithrosie

Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
Posted
2 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

Don't confuse relative humidity with dew point. The RH will drop as it gets warmer during the day.

You need to use something like this to calculate the DP from the RH and temperature - watch the DP rise

Dew Point Calculator (www.dpcalc.org)

 

Thank you,  I didn't realise that . I will check the dew point out . 

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Not sure about this personally.

Most if not all high res don't anything Substantial leaving Northern France till around 6-7pm tonight..  those showers/thunderstorms are surface based storms feeding of the very high temperatures there.. the storms later will be elevated and judging by high res 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
Just now, Surrey said:

Most if not all high res don't anything Substantial leaving Northern France till around 6-7pm tonight..  those showers/thunderstorms are surface based storms feeding of the very high temperatures there.. the storms later will be elevated and judging by high res 

I think the high res are too late with developnent, i.e. the projections for slow initiation 7-8pm over North France are happening now.. Will be interesting to see what later vertical advancement to the elevated / MCS phase does though.

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I think the high res are too late with developnent, i.e. the projections for slow initiation 7-8pm over North France are happening now.. Will be interesting to see what later vertical advancement to the elevated / MCS phase does though.

Early days yet and everything so far looks like going to plan reaching 29.9c here now on the weather station.. 

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