Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

    Latest Aim seems to be being eaten by something (high sunspot activity in my opinion)

    However there was a clump floating around the 10 o`clock point that is roughly in the 3 day transit area

    Very hit and miss......but a chance providing clear skies

    current_daisy.thumb.png.6a0dd18b7bd873aa841facbd54b8daac.png

    I'm not really expecting the eye popping bright displays that we`ve been lucky enough to observe over the last 3 years

    Due to the relationship between the Solar maximums and minimums.....Sadly we are heading away from a Solar minimum which is favourable for bright displays

    TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.thumb.png.1a40a89fc1448cdb0625a9aa3b8b2b23.png

     

     

     

    Thought it was a two day transit area 🤔, in which case they would be the ones seen this morning?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 122
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    some more  

    Love it Rob👌 a couple more

    Got my first too  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    Still working from the only constant we know Rob......using the fact that Nasa believe that NLC`s transit fully around the pole over a period of 5 days, in a clockwise direction

    Which i make that 72° transit per day or 12 minutes on an imaginary clock face

    3 day old Aim image....so there would have been 3 days transit for the clump at around the 10 o`clock area to be here tonight

    3 days is to long to make any kind of forecast....It is my guestimate 🙂

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

    Still working from the only constant we know Rob......using the fact that Nasa believe that NLC`s transit fully around the pole over a period of 5 days, in a clockwise direction

    Which i make that 72° transit per day or 12 minutes on an imaginary clock face

    3 day old Aim image....so there would have been 3 days transit for the clump at around the 10 o`clock area to be here tonight

    3 days is to long to make any kind of forecast....It is my guestimate 🙂

    ahh yes... its coming back to me now.. 👍

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
    2 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

    Latest Aim seems to be being eaten by something (high sunspot activity in my opinion)

    However there was a clump floating around the 10 o`clock point that is roughly in the 3 day transit area

    Very hit and miss......but a chance providing clear skies

    current_daisy.thumb.png.6a0dd18b7bd873aa841facbd54b8daac.png

    I'm not really expecting the eye popping bright displays that we`ve been lucky enough to observe over the last 3 years

    Due to the relationship between the Solar maximums and minimums.....Sadly we are heading away from a Solar minimum which is favourable for bright displays

    TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.thumb.png.1a40a89fc1448cdb0625a9aa3b8b2b23.png

     

     

     

    It shows well on this daisy chart why viewings were good the night of the 4th into the morning of the 5th.  Counting back anti clockwise as you said, takes us to roughly around the 10 o' clock area for tonight the 8th.  Interestingly this clump is at lower latitudes, than than mass on the night of the 4th.  So providing this clump which is now 3 days old has not diminished, like you say there is a chance tonight.  Bear in mind this clump could have expanded over the 3 days increasing the chances of a decent viewing.  Have I got the hang of it finally?      Only one way to find out cloud permitting.  Totally gutted sleep got the better of me on Friday night and I missed a decent show.  

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Ok i hope ive got this right...

    On the 4th there was no NLCs at low enough latitudes to be seen from the UK, so im assuming what we saw (in my case between 11pm 12 midnight) were the clouds at around 5.26 on the clock face.

    If that is true, then ive marked off at 12 minute intervals on the clock what are likely to be coming our way.

    On a 3 day chart the area of interest is ten o'clock for tonight, or on the 2 day, just past midnight.

    So IF tonights daisy has a showing just past midnight at 70 degrees or so, then theres a good chance...bloody high cloud though is currently spoiling the sky!

     

    Capture.JPG

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Todays daisy out early.... looks to me like some faint ones can be seen tonight... but will they build?..lol..

     

    current_daisy now.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    Well this is a rare treat working with a 2 day old image.....

    The stuff we can expect to night would be the area around the 1- 2 o`clock area on this latest Aim

    Are we feeling lucky😉

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
    29 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Ok i hope ive got this right...

    On the 4th there was no NLCs at low enough latitudes to be seen from the UK, so im assuming what we saw (in my case between 11pm 12 midnight) were the clouds at around 5.26 on the clock face.

    If that is true, then ive marked off at 12 minute intervals on the clock what are likely to be coming our way.

    On a 3 day chart the area of interest is ten o'clock for tonight, or on the 2 day, just past midnight.

    So IF tonights daisy has a showing just past midnight at 70 degrees or so, then theres a good chance...bloody high cloud though is currently spoiling the sky!

     

    Capture.JPG

    That's how I would work it out too, I've made a clear plastic template with similar markings on which I place on top of the daisy chart on my tablet.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
    Posted (edited)

    Rob... just to refresh ( forget about the date of the Aim)

    the overlaid clock face is there to represent the 5 days transit....day by day

     

     

    current_daisy24.png.a4ed10b9a1066a19c0c26d5a38d75234clock.png

    Edited by Arnie Pie
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
    13 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

    Rob... just to refresh ( forget about the date of the Aim)

    the overlaid clock face is there to represent the 5 days transit....day by day

     

     

    current_daisy24.png.a4ed10b9a1066a19c0c26d5a38d75234clock.png

    Those are the markings I used on a clear piece of plastic, instant guide to the area you need to look at.  Sky not clear here at the moment, milky orange sunset earlier.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    36 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

    Rob... just to refresh ( forget about the date of the Aim)

    the overlaid clock face is there to represent the 5 days transit....day by day

     

     

    current_daisy24.png.a4ed10b9a1066a19c0c26d5a38d75234clock.png

    Yes i know, but according to that on the 4th we would see nothing!  The clouds on the 4th North of us were at 75 degrees, surely they at that latitude wouldnt have given us the display we witnessed, surely the ones we saw were between 4-5 o'clock on the 4th..  ... or am i wrong?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
    Posted (edited)

    Nice and clear here atm.....Nlc`s beginning to show up on the near continent @ Fensburg again

    flensburg-210608-0020-hd.thumb.jpg.3ee84c8a58dad175d4f18a0b36185c7f.jpg

    Edited by Arnie Pie
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    Posted (edited)

    No offence to anyone in here as I have joined in/posted pictures over the years…but does anyone really have a clue how to forecast noctilucent clouds in advance? 
    I have missed two displays here recently due to sleeping through them (seen local pictures on Facebook) - can’t stay up past midnight due to work Monday to Friday! 

    It’s quite frustrating as I have loved going out/hang out the window to view them in the past.
    It seems previous years we had a better handle on them? (Last year for example)   
    Maybe I am talking nonsense! (Although it’s very confusing trying to get a grasp on what is going on from the posts above - it seems as though no-one has a clue! I mean that in the nicest possible way!)

    Is it simply just a case of…on a clear night stay up late/early hours of the morning and hope for the best?  (Plus check some European webcams?)

    @Paul Sherman was a good source of information/timing/pictures last Summer - haven’t seen him in here so far this season! Are you still about mate? 😀 If yes, any thoughts/tips? 

    Edited by Mr Frost
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    @Mr Frost....your exactly right frosty....Nobody`s really got a clue on how to exactly predict them.

    Just a half arsed attempt to provide a guestimate off the only information we know.... which is that the clouds transit around the N Pole in a clockwise direction and that they take 5 days to complete a full circuit.

    i`ve had more success watching social media and euro webcam's for the best heads up.

    Any Nlc`s showing up early enough will normally transit around to our skies by Nautical twilight....a good time for viewing

    To many variables for predictions but it has turned out a lot of fun trying😉

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    @mushymanrob I think what were both asking is what we actually saw last Friday night (04-06-2021)and how it was represented on the Aims image when it was released
     
    What we all witnessed was a faint display to the North at around 6-8° altitude for just over an hour

    The altitude can be gauged by Capella as a guide...Capella was at 11° altitude

    widenlc3.jpg.f6cc187a7de7c3c655a6f70889ac3789.thumb.jpg.cdb748a54c34cef28c477170443d6ff0.jpg

     

    So what we need is the Photos which were taken at the exact time as we were witnessing them. i.e. the individual orbit strip from the time of the display

    793667858_o4orbit.thumb.png.bb07321c06cb8183c3e06680e3dfddf2.png

    This is where it get`s a tag confusing ( Nasa timings are in UCT ) and frustratingly I don't think this will answer the question (but I do hope this helps👍)

    for what it`s worth from what we witnessed my guess would be

    oo4.thumb.png.da4dcbae4a2e20fa1932450054bb1d40.png

    Anyway... enough of trying to interpret NASA`s attempt to show Mother Natures free shows.....Im off to shout at some clouds and a big red wine😉 

     


     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    4 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

    @mushymanrob I think what were both asking is what we actually saw last Friday night (04-06-2021)and how it was represented on the Aims image when it was released
     
    What we all witnessed was a faint display to the North at around 6-8° altitude for just over an hour

    The altitude can be gauged by Capella as a guide...Capella was at 11° altitude

    widenlc3.jpg.f6cc187a7de7c3c655a6f70889ac3789.thumb.jpg.cdb748a54c34cef28c477170443d6ff0.jpg

     

    So what we need is the Photos which were taken at the exact time as we were witnessing them. i.e. the individual orbit strip from the time of the display

    793667858_o4orbit.thumb.png.bb07321c06cb8183c3e06680e3dfddf2.png

    This is where it get`s a tag confusing ( Nasa timings are in UCT ) and frustratingly I don't think this will answer the question (but I do hope this helps👍)

    for what it`s worth from what we witnessed my guess would be

    oo4.thumb.png.da4dcbae4a2e20fa1932450054bb1d40.png

    Anyway... enough of trying to interpret NASA`s attempt to show Mother Natures free shows.....Im off to shout at some clouds and a big red wine😉 

     


     

    ahhhh ! right... that adds up, so we should be looking East of North on the daisy, that agrees then with your clock, and the sightings at lower latitude than directly north on the daisy..

    That squares it up 👍

    Thanks for that 🙂

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    22 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

    No offence to anyone in here as I have joined in/posted pictures over the years…but does anyone really have a clue how to forecast noctilucent clouds in advance? 
    I have missed two displays here recently due to sleeping through them (seen local pictures on Facebook) - can’t stay up past midnight due to work Monday to Friday! 

    It’s quite frustrating as I have loved going out/hang out the window to view them in the past.
    It seems previous years we had a better handle on them? (Last year for example)   
    Maybe I am talking nonsense! (Although it’s very confusing trying to get a grasp on what is going on from the posts above - it seems as though no-one has a clue! I mean that in the nicest possible way!)

    Is it simply just a case of…on a clear night stay up late/early hours of the morning and hope for the best?  (Plus check some European webcams?)

    @Paul Sherman was a good source of information/timing/pictures last Summer - haven’t seen him in here so far this season! Are you still about mate? 😀 If yes, any thoughts/tips? 

    I reckon Paul will be back around/just after the solstice, when the 'big gun' NLCs come out to play. He's not interested in the child's play ones of the early NLC season. 😅

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    loads of NLC sightings on the euro webcams now...

    trouble is... bloody cloud here in the UK..

     

    webcam.JPG

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    Posted (edited)
    47 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    I reckon Paul will be back around/just after the solstice, when the 'big gun' NLCs come out to play. He's not interested in the child's play ones of the early NLC season. 😅

    Yes…you make a great point! One of my best display’s last year was just after midnight on June 22nd!

    This was using my phone camera back then!

    80A3FC36-0C51-4A7D-931A-96FA97770333.thumb.jpeg.6a9fdd4d2d5979a148001d15ec052cf2.jpeg

    I was hanging out the window trying to be extremely quiet as to not wake up my partner and toddler son. 😄

     

    @mushymanrob got clear spells here now but not ideal with plenty of cloud cover to my N/NW/NE!
    I shall be on the lookout however…until midnight at the latest!

    Edited by Mr Frost
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    Manage to catch a hole in the clouds 22.00-22.20 to the North but high....30° altitude

    IMG_7923.thumb.JPG.64d7ed1dacf3a98b75de6fbc2e05d6f8.JPG

    IMG_7929.thumb.JPG.29c27478c3095a59bb06a44d73445442.JPG

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    image.thumb.png.cd014782207caa1d012fc082cb6dce30.png

    One of the shots from earlier at around 22:25

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    oh thats sooo frustrating!...i could see them on the webcams, on the forums, but it was bloody cloudy here... grrr...

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Location: Wickford, Essex

    Same here, I like how there is not a cloud all day long...until about 8pm, then its all low cloud on the Northern horizon. I tried again at 2:30 but absolutely nothing at that time. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    A few shots from yesterday night.

    P1420553.thumb.JPG.c4092be313aa2b4c7fa9417461788c58.JPG   P1420558.thumb.JPG.73f64c0c9491a77fd298ffaaef0d7d22.JPG   P1420562.thumb.JPG.8a7e64780c10acc794cbf65e53bd79ac.JPG   P1420567.thumb.JPG.ba29c95d589cc613bd60fa547ebf78bf.JPG

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    Timelapse from last night.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    • Heat is back for SE UK today, but lively thunderstorms loom for overnight

      A Spanish Plume will visit southern and eastern areas today, with heat returning to SE England, where temperatures may reach 30C. But the plume will become unstable later, with thunderstorms moving northeast tonight. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-06-16 06:37:33 Valid: 16/06/2021 0600 - 17/06/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 16TH JUNE 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Thunderstorm warnings - are they hitting the spot?

      A widespread early warning for Thunderstorms later this week does give an early heads-up but is the current national warning system working for the public when storms and lightning appear? Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...