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June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness
  • Location: Shoeburyness
    13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    I'll go with a warm June, matching 2005, 15.5 degrees, indeed a turnaround from May just has happened in 2005. Not expecting another 2018 or 2020 in terms of consistent settled weather, but there will be a fair amount, possibly more so in the first half as currently indicated by the charts, with some temporary shortlived very warm, possibly hot conditions - but not widespread. Perhaps quite a thundery month, some atlantic incursions at times, variable rainfall as a result. Quite a mixed month, a bit of everything for heat and thunder lovers. 

    Sounds like the MO 30 dayer. 😃😃

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    Latest projection for June   The chances of finishing: Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔻to 28.1% (2 days ago was 38.6%) Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 71.5% (2 days ago was 56.2%)

    (a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes includes all values 1981 to 2020, bold warmest, italic middle third, underlined coolest third. (14, 12, 14 due to ties).  23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, w

    Latest projection for June   The chances of finishing: Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔺to 38.6% (4 days ago was 37.3%) Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 56.2% (4 days ago was 45.8%)

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    15.6C and 50mm, thanks.

    Of note, if May finishes on 10C after corrections, a June CET of 15.9C would make the May to June increase the 10th largest on record. A June of 17.6C would be needed for a new overall record (10.5C to 18.0C in 1676 is the current largest, next largest is 8.7C to 15.1C in 1817).

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    Posted (edited)

    A warm first half of June, cooler in the second half but not enough to offset the warm first half.  15.4C and 46.3mm please.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Warmer and drier than average:

    15.0C and 52mm

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    Posted
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL

    15.9c and 68mm please.

    It looks to me that things are warming up at last……..

    MM

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    16c please

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    15.1C & 68mm Please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    The above average theme returns with 15.7C and 60mm please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    The above average theme returns with 15.7C and 60mm please. 

    Might be on course for a roller coaster year temp wise, highs and lows  been a long time since we have had a year as such. Indeed can't remember the last time possibly 2009 to an extent.. 

    Cold Jan, warmer Feb and March, cold April, May, warm June?...

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    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

    14.9C thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    15.5c and 88mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    ===================================

    Table of forecasts __ June 2021

    =====================================

    Numbers in brackets are for order of entry. 

     

    CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) ____________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

    18.9 _ ------ _ Backtrack ( 6 ) _________________________ 14.8 _ 77.0 _ weather-history ( 34 ) _____

    17.5 _ 15.0 _ 38.7*C ( L1-8 ) ________________________

    17.2 _ 22.0 _ Earthshine ( 9 ) ________________________14.8 _ 56.0 _ jonboy ( 28 ) _______________

    16.4 _ ------ _ Man Without Beard ( 46 ) _____________ 14.7 _ 70.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 36 ) ____

    16.1 _ 61.0 _ Feb1991blizzard ( 23 ) _________________14.7 _ 46.0 _ virtualsphere ( 12 ) _________ 

    16.0 _ 70.0 _ The PIT ( 24 ) __________________________ 14.7 _ 70.5 _ 1991-2020 average _________

    16.0 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 50 ) _____________________ 14.6 _ 77.0 _ Stationary Front ( 10 ) _____

    16.0 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-6 ) _______________

    15.9 _ 57.0 _ seaside60 ( 42 ) _______________________ 14.5 _ 56.0 _ Timmytour ( 7 ) ____________

    15.9 _ 68.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 48 ) ____________________ 14.5 _ 66.3 _ 1981-2010 average _________

    15.9 _ 47.0 _ Blast From the Past ( L1-7 ) ___________

    15.8 _ 82.0 _ Polar Gael ( 16 ) _______________________ 14.5 _ 50.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 25 ) _____

    15.8 _ 76.0 _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _____________ 14.4 _ 80.0 _ Jeff C ( 11 ) _________________ 

    15.8 _ 58.0 _ noname_weather ( 49 ) _______________ 14.4 _ 68.0 _ Steve B ( 15 ) _______________

    15.8 _ 46.0 _ Stargazer ( L1-9 ) ______________________

    15.7 _ 33.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 18 ) _________________ 14.4 _ 84.0 _ LetItSnow! ( 26 ) ___________

    15.7 _ 60.0 _ Don ( 53 ) ______________________________ 14.4 _ 99.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 40 ) _______

    15.6 _ 72.0 _ East Lancs Rain ( 33 ) __________________ 14.3 _ 58.0 _ snowray ( 22 ) _____________

    15.6 _ 50.0 _ BornFromTheVoid ( 44 ) _______________ 14.2 _ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 4 ) ___________

    15.6 _ 67.0 _ February1978 ( 55 ) ____________________ 14.2 _112.0_ Summer 18 ( 17 ) __________

    15.6 _ 51.6 _ CheesepuffScott ( L1-5 ) _______________

    15.5 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _____________________ 13.8 _ 90.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 8 ) _______

    15.5 _ 55.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) _________________________ 13.7 _ 77.0 _ NeilN ( 5 ) ___________________

    15.5 _ 45.0 _ Frigid ( 37 ) ____________________________ 13.2 _ 60.0 _ B87 ( 2 ) _____________________

    15.5 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 43 ) _____________________ 13.0 _117.0_ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 20 ) __

    15.5 _ 58.0 _ Godber1 ( 57 ) ________________________ 13.0 _ 80.0 _ syed2878 ( 39 ) __________________

    15.4 _ 89.6 _ Roger J Smith ( 27 ) ____________________12.7 _ 72.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 14 ) _____

    15.4 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 29 ) _____________________12.0 _ 70.0 _ Robbie Garrett ( 13 ) ____________

    15.4 _ 50.0 _ Leo97t ( 41 ) ___________________________

    15.4 _ 46.3 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 45 ) _______

    15.4 _ 52.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) _________________________

    15.3 _ 65.0 _ Ed Stone ( 19 ) _________________________

    15.3 _ 59.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 38 ) _________________

    15.3 _ 44.0 _ Mulzy ( L1-3 ) __________________________

    15.2 _ 61.0 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) ___________________________

    15.2 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 52 ) ________________

    15.3 _ 63.0 _ consensus ____________________________

    15.1 _ 60.0 _ Federico ( 32 ) _________________________ 

    15.1 _ 68.0 _ rwtwm ( 21 ) ___________________________ 

    15.1 _ 68.0 _ davehsug ( 51 ) ________________________ 

    15.1 _ 75.0 _ J10 ( 54 ) _______________________________ 

    15.0 _ 52.0 _ Reef ( 47 ) ______________________________ 

    15.0 _ 70.0 _ sundog ( L1-4 ) _________________________

    14.9 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 31 ) _________________

    14.9 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 56 ) ______________________ 

    14.9 _ 60.0 _ Relativistic (L1-2) _______________________

     

    57 on time entries, consensus (median) 15.2

    so far 9 late entries (L-1 to L-9), 66 entries in total, consensus (median) now 15.3.

    ======================================================================

     

    EWP forecasts in order

     

    117_IRAtl252 ... 112_sum18 ... 99_shil ... 90_SB ... 89.6_RJS ... 88_wx26, Godb .. 84_LIS ...

     82_PG ... 80_Jeff,syed ... 77_NN,SF,wx-h ... 76_WWS ... 75_J10 .. 72_wx-en,ELR ... 70.8_KW ...

     70.5_91-20 ... 70_RG, PIT, sun^ ... 68,rwtwm_Ste, MrM, dave ... 67_Feb78 ...

     66.3_81-10 .. 65_EdS ... 63.0 con ... 61_bob, Feb91 ... 60_B87, Fed, Don, rel^ .. 59_MIA ...

     58_snow, non ... 57_sea ... 56_tim, jon ... 55_DR(S) ... 52_Reef, dan*^ .. 51.6_CPS^

     50_DRL, leo, BFTV ... 47_BFTP^ .. 46.3_TWS ... 46_virt, Star^ ... 45_Frig ... 44_Mul

     33_EG ... 22_Earth ... 15_ 38.7*C

    ______________________________

    48 on time entries, ^ late one day (eight so far) _ 56 forecasts total

    _ _ _ consensus now 63.0 mm.

    _______________________________ ^ _____________________________

     

    It should be noted that the last day entries all went above the previously set consensus (14.8) with perhaps one exception and the trend went slightly drier at the end too. ... After 30th of May the table was balanced with no spaces like it has now, thanks to the late surge of warmer forecasts all going above 14.8 C. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    Fixing an error in consensus in EWP
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Might be on course for a roller coaster year temp wise, highs and lows  been a long time since we have had a year as such. Indeed can't remember the last time possibly 2009 to an extent.. 

    Cold Jan, warmer Feb and March, cold April, May, warm June?...

    June certainly looking like a warmer month and yes, could well be a roller coaster year of temps!  Hopefully the ‘lows’ will also coincide with the winter months! 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    15.4c and 52mm thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    I'll go with 14.9°C and 60mm.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    15.3C and 44mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    15.0c and 70mm for me please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    15.6°C and 51.6mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    16.0C please

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    Posted (edited)

    Warm to very warm at times and mainly dry but with thundery outbreaks bringing some downpours .  15.9 C and 47mm

     

     BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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