June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[summer blizzard]

Yes, it looks like it will finish about 0.5C above the recent average after corrections so that combined with my own experience will mark it as a medicore month albeit with mild nights early on.

[damianslaw]

Someone said no way will this month below 16s.. I'd say no way will this month now end up above 16 degrees. With any corrections we could end in the low 15s!

[Derecho]

Yup quite the fall, even earlier in the month the CET didn't end up as high as the models predicted. A notably warm first half but in the end it looks like a typical unremarkable modern June.

The lack on sunshine over the last 10 days has also been notable, the second half looks to be poor here.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP at 45 mm (probably adding nothing yesterday) and looks to settle near 60 mm with 25-30 mm in the south next 3-4 days, little to none in the north.

CET looks like finishing 15.6 to 15.8 then a correction to 15.4 to 15.7 possibly. 

[Earthshine]

What a shame, first half of June was fantastic.  At least July seems to bring a return to more pleasant summer weather with temperatures in the low to mid twenties Celsius.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

CET looks like finishing 15.6 to 15.8 then a correction to 15.4 to 15.7 possibly. 

That would be good. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.1C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 27th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 15.7c on the 26th & 27th

[mushymanrob]

if it finishes on 15.7 then its the 9th warmest in the last 100 years.... thats still decent..

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

if it finishes on 15.7 then its the 9th warmest in the last 100 years.... thats still decent..

Surprising statistic! Shows how cool an average June is. Hasn't felt especially warm. 

Has 30 degrees been reached yet?

Edited June 28, 2021 by damianslaw

[Weather-history]

It looks like for SE England, it has been the wettest May-June period since 2007 

Edited June 29, 2021 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.1C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall now 23.3mm 30.3% of the average rainfall

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 28th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 15.7c on the 26th, 27th & 28th

[damianslaw]

Perhaps a finish with corrections of 15.5 degrees. A warm June but not exceptionally so.

[Frigid]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Perhaps a finish with corrections of 15.5 degrees. A warm June but not exceptionally so.

That would be great 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.1C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 23.3mm 30.3% of the monthly average.

Both unlikely to change today so a very warm dry month yet only two days above 25C.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 29th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 15.7c on the 26th, 27th, 28th & 29th

[Scorcher]

On 28/06/2021 at 22:33, damianslaw said:

Surprising statistic! Shows how cool an average June is. Hasn't felt especially warm. 

Has 30 degrees been reached yet?

I disagree with this...it has felt warm around here at least. We've been in the low 20s for much of the month by day here.

It hasn't been 'hot' but I can't recall any other June that was so consistently in the 'warm' category by day.

The classic Junes have often tended to have cooler spells (even 1976) with heatwaves bringing the average up.

I'm sure those further south will disagree but I think this month would certainly merit being in the top 10 in the last century.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP around 59 mm (58 to 28th, est 1 mm for a bit of rain in the southeast corner yesterday). Looks like a fairly dry day today so 59 mm is likely to be our tracker final. This month, I would not be too surprised if they adjust this a bit more than usual on the 5th because it's a blend of one or two wet regions with the rest rather dry. So the preliminary scoring that I offer on the 2nd may need a bit of revising on the 5th, or maybe not. 

The current southeast England value is a lot higher than most of the regions (96 mm) compared to 50 mm southwest, 38 mm central, 22 mm northeast and 23 mm northwest. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 16.1C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 23.3mm 30.3% of the monthly average

So a warm very dry month 8th warmest on our records and 10th driest on records since 1955.

Edited July 1, 2021 by The PIT

[Scorcher]

My local weather station only recorded 14mm of rain in the month- a very dry month overall here and all of the rain that did fall was in the 2nd half of the month.

I'm surprised that some are crediting the minima with lifting the CET figure- here it's been the opposite. The average max has been 20.9C with a few cool nights, so actually it's been the daytime temps that have lifted the average.

21 days reached 20C or above during the month- very decent indeed.

A very sunny first half here followed by a slightly dull (but still warm) second half.

[Roger J Smith]

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/rr.php?region=de

Over 160 mm of rain on 30th at two locations northeast of Berlin. 

[Timmytour]

4 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield finished on 16.1C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 23.3mm 30.3% of the monthly average

So a warm very dry month 8th warmest on our records and 10th driest on records since 1955.

How often do you guys finish above the national mean?

[Roger J Smith]

I see 15.5 posted for final CET ... and 58 mm EWP on the tracker.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, they've got 15.5C on the final monthly values.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

So in the end I was just 0.1C out with my punt of 15.4C, but I underdid the rainfall by rather more.  I need to start entering these on a more regular basis though.