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June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    (a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes

    includes all values 1981 to 2020, bold warmest, italic middle third, underlined coolest third. (14, 12, 14 due to ties). 

    23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

    22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976

    21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976

    18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

    18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

    17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

    17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

    17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest)

    16.1 ... 2003, 2018

    16.0 ... 2017

    15.9 ... 2006

    15.7 ... 1992

    15.5 ... 1982, 2005

    15.3 ... 2004, 2020

    15.2 ... 2010, 2016

    15.1 ... 2000, 2007, 2014

    15.0 ... 1993

    14.9 ... average for 2001-2020

    14.8 ... 1986, 2009 

    14.72 .. 1822-1851 has the warmest 30-year average of 14.72. June is the only month where this maximum is before 1971-2000 (Dec).

    14.69 .. 1991-2020 average (closing in on 1822-51, rounds to 14.7 also).

    14.6 ... 1989  

    14.5 ... 1984, 1994 ... average for 1981-2010,  also for 1701-1800

    14.4 ... 1983, 1988, 1996, 2002

    14.3 ... 1995, 2001 and average for all years 1659-2020 (14.34), also 1801-1900

    14.2 ... 1998, 2019 and average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

    14.1 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

    14.0 ... 2015

    13.9 ... 1999, 2008

    13.8 ... 2011

    13.6 ... 1990, 2013

    13.5 ... 2012

    13.2 ... 1981

    12.8 ... 1987

    12.7 ... 1985

    12.1 ... 1991 (lone 8th coldest after 1689, 1698 at 12.0 tied 6th coldest)

    11.9 ... 1749 (5th coldest)

    11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

    11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

     7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

    __________________________________________________________________

    At 16.1, 2003 and 2018 were tied 18th warmest which is the least extreme such ranking for any month in the period 1981 to 2019. The next in line is May (where May 1992 was tied 6th warmest). June is also the only month that has a more extreme cold rank since 1981 (June 1991 -- 8th coldest) than its warmest rank. From 2010 to 2015 December shared that distinction. Besides December 2010 (2nd coldest) and June 1991 (8th coldest) the only other months since 1981 with coldest 15 placements in the entire period of record since 1659 are Feb 1986 (5th coldest), March 2013 (tied 12th coldest), May 1996 (tied 13th coldest), Sept 1986 (tied 14th coldest), and Dec 1981 (tied 8th coldest). 

    ___________________________________________________________________

    Enter the CET forecast contest by end of the day Monday 31st of May without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties.

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 

    ========================================================================

     

    EWP contest

    The contest uses the England and Wales Hadley precip series (1766 to present) as its source. 

    Predict the June 2021 rainfall in mm.

     

    160.1 mm __ 2012 wettest 1766 to 2019

    157.1 mm __ 1860 (2nd wettest 1766 to 2019)

    _70.5 mm __ mean 1991-2020

    _66.6 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2019

    _66.3 mm __ mean 1981-2010

    _16.5 mm __ 2018 driest 1981-2019 (20.2 mm in 1995 previous minimum)

    __4.3 mm __ 1925 driest 1766-2019

    In recent years, 2020_98.3 mm ____ 2019 _ 116.3 mm ___ 2018 _ 16.5 mm ___ 2017 _ 93.8 mm ___ 2016 _ 114.0 mm

    ___ 2015 _ 38.8 mm ___ 2014 _ 49.8 mm ___ 2013 _ 37.6 mm ___ 2012 _ 160.1 mm ___ 2011 __ 82.0 mm _____ 2010 _ 42.7 mm.

    - - - - - _______________________________ - - - - -

    Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines and from 1st to 3rd of June, it's 0.3 point deductions per day late to end of 3rd. Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Duplicate entries lose 2/3 of a scoring interval by order of entry. 

    Good luck in both contests !!

    _______________________________ > > > > _____________________________

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    Hi, 15.2C and 61mm for me please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    13.2c and 60mm

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    13.7c and 77mm please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    18.9C

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    Posted (edited)

    14.5C and 56mm please

    Edited by Timmytour
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    13.8C for the moment, 90mm. Strong agreement from both of my methods.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    14.4C and 80mm please, thanks

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    Posted (edited)

      I am going for a ‘reverse Lettucing’ for June.

     

       CET 10.8.C

     

      Yes, coldest June on record and first ever sub 11.C June.

     

      The month will fail to warm significantly from May with an incessant feed of Northerlies or North Easterlies. Temperatures by day will stay rooted in the low teens and by night under any clear spells will readily fall into single figures. Nowhere in the UK will hit or exceed 20.0.C all month!

     

      A particularly brutal Northerly feed mid month will send some locations even in England failing to reach double figures... followed by some very unseasonal frost and temperatures falling below zero widely across the country. 

     

      The most spectacular aberration this month will be a Low that piles into the cold air. This will feature SNOW on its leading edge and temperatures bottoming out to 0.C briefly in parts of the Peak District with short lived blizzard conditions. 

     

    EWP an academic 77mm

     

     Summer is coming......in August!

    Edited by Shillitocettwo
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    A June much like 1980, which will start off with a warm or hot spell, lasting for 4-5 days. After that, some thunderstorms and much cooler and very dull weather will dominate. 
     

    It looks like our nice sunny May/June period is under threat this year from even producing at least one full week of warm sunny spells. Even 2017 and 19 gave us a few days here and there between May and June 2018, and 2020 were very good for midsummer sunshine levels,  but my guess is all the warm sunny evenings will be reserved for august this time round. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: A variety, but nothing too extreme
  • Location: West Midlands
    Posted (edited)

    12.7°C and 72mm.

    I am going for a low pressure dominated June this year, but with a hot spell during the last few days; reaching 30°C in many places.

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    14.4c and 68mm please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    19 hours ago, Shillitocettwo said:

      I am going for a ‘reverse Lettucing’ for June.

     

       CET 10.8.C

     

      Yes, coldest June on record and first ever sub 11.C June.

     

      The month will fail to warm significantly from May with an incessant feed of Northerlies or North Easterlies. Temperatures by day will stay rooted in the low teens and by night under any clear spells will readily fall into single figures. Nowhere in the UK will hit or exceed 20.0.C all month!

     

      A particularly brutal Northerly feed mid month will send some locations even in England failing to reach double figures... followed by some very unseasonal frost and temperatures falling below zero widely across the country. 

     

      The most spectacular aberration this month will be a Low that piles into the cold air. This will feature SNOW on its leading edge and temperatures bottoming out to 0.C briefly in parts of the Peak District with short lived blizzard conditions. 

     

    EWP an academic 77mm

     

     Summer is coming......in August!

    An interesting prediction, and one I wouldn't mind going through. Coldest June in living memory was in 1972 at 11.8C. would take a lot to get it under 11. However I feel like 12.5 to 14.0 is the most likely range given our current climate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    15.8C & 82.0mm for me please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny in Summer, Cold & Frosty in Winter, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport

    14.2C and 112mm please 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I'll go for 15.3C and 65mm please, Roger. That's using both my methods -- guesses 1&2, respectively!😁

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