June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Frigid]

Finally got one spot on after 6 months, EWP wasn't far off either. This June for many has probably been a mixed bag, but in the NW its been dry and fairly warm with no heatwaves unlike previous years 2017, 18 19 or 2020. 

[Roger J Smith]

Top CET forecasts (unofficial list from table of entries)

Rank _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

__01 _ 15.5 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _____________________

__02 _ 15.5 _ 55.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) _________________________ best combined

__03 _ 15.5 _ 45.0 _ Frigid ( 37 ) ____________________________ 

__04 _ 15.5 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 43 ) _____________________ 

__05 _ 15.5 _ 88.0 _ Godber1 ( 57 ) ________________________ 

__06 _ 15.4 _ 89.6 _ Roger J Smith ( 27 ) ____________________

__07 _ 15.4 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 29 ) _____________________

__08 _ 15.6 _ 72.0 _ East Lancs Rain ( 33 ) __________________ 

__09 _ 15.4 _ 50.0 _ Leo97t ( 41 ) ___________________________

__10 _ 15.6 _ 50.0 _ BornFromTheVoid ( 44 ) _______________

__11 _ 15.4 _ 46.3 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 45 ) _______

__12 _ 15.6 _ 67.0 _ February1978 ( 55 ) ____________________

__13 _ 15.4 _ 52.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) _________________________

__14 _ 15.6 _ 51.6 _ CheesepuffScott ( L1-5 ) _______________

__15 _ 15.7 _ 33.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 18 ) _________________

__16 _ 15.3 _ 65.0 _ Ed Stone ( 19 ) _________________________

__17 _ 15.3 _ 59.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 38 ) _________________

__18 _ 15.7 _ 60.0 _ Don ( 53 ) ______________________________

__19 _ 15.3 _ 44.0 _ Mulzy ( L1-3 ) __________________________

__20 _ 15.2 _ 61.0 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) ___________________________

__21_ 15.8 _ 82.0 _ Polar Gael ( 16 ) _______________________

__22_ 15.8 _ 76.0 _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _____________ 

__23_ 15.8 _ 58.0 _ noname_weather ( 49 ) _______________ 

__24_ 15.2 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 52 ) _______________

__25_ 15.8 _ 46.0 _ Stargazer ( L1-9 ) ______________________

------------------------------------------------------

edit _ I thought that Godber1 hit both CET and EWP on the mark (subject to final EWP confirmation on 5th). However, what happened there was that I entered his 88 mm correctly in the list at the bottom of the table of entries (from where I derive my data for the excel file for scoring) but my addled brain changed the 88 to 58 up in the table of entries. I would never have seen that since it doesn't play a role in scoring the EWP contest, only the bottom section is used for that. 

this therefore now irrelevant ... He would have joined the exclusive double first table except that order of entry will drop his ranks as shown (possibly with EWP also, so that by ranks DR(S)NO is close to being tied although not as close on the EWP value). In fact DR(S)NO has the best combined forecast, will give more precise details when I have the final EWP number as some ties are involved at present.

This list as always subject to official CET scoring confirmation. Also the order of late entries ignores adjustments for late penalties which for CET amount to losing 2-3 positions and for EWP 1-2. This is the entire list of forecasts within 0.3 of the mark, and our consensus was 15.3. Will update the scoring for consensus and the two normals later. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

Painful result for me. Broadly a correct pattern but completely underestimated the CET in the first half.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 15.5c June 2021 shares the same mean CET with June's:

1679

1686

1711

1837

1866

1868

1947

1982

2005

 

 

 

 

 

[Godber 1]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Top CET forecasts (unofficial list from table of entries)

Rank _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

__01 _ 15.5 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _____________________

__02 _ 15.5 _ 55.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) _________________________ 2nd best combined

__03 _ 15.5 _ 45.0 _ Frigid ( 37 ) ____________________________ 

__04 _ 15.5 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 43 ) _____________________ 

__05 _ 15.5 _ 58.0 _ Godber1 ( 57 ) ________________________ best combined 

__06 _ 15.4 _ 89.6 _ Roger J Smith ( 27 ) ____________________

__07 _ 15.4 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 29 ) _____________________

__08 _ 15.6 _ 72.0 _ East Lancs Rain ( 33 ) __________________ 

__09 _ 15.4 _ 50.0 _ Leo97t ( 41 ) ___________________________

__10 _ 15.6 _ 50.0 _ BornFromTheVoid ( 44 ) _______________

__11 _ 15.4 _ 46.3 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 45 ) _______

__12 _ 15.6 _ 67.0 _ February1978 ( 55 ) ____________________

__13 _ 15.4 _ 52.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) _________________________

__14 _ 15.6 _ 51.6 _ CheesepuffScott ( L1-5 ) _______________

__15 _ 15.7 _ 33.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 18 ) _________________

__16 _ 15.3 _ 65.0 _ Ed Stone ( 19 ) _________________________

__17 _ 15.3 _ 59.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 38 ) _________________

__18 _ 15.7 _ 60.0 _ Don ( 53 ) ______________________________

__19 _ 15.3 _ 44.0 _ Mulzy ( L1-3 ) __________________________

__20 _ 15.2 _ 61.0 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) ___________________________

__21_ 15.8 _ 82.0 _ Polar Gael ( 16 ) _______________________

__22_ 15.8 _ 76.0 _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _____________ 

__23_ 15.8 _ 58.0 _ noname_weather ( 49 ) _______________ 

__24_ 15.2 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 52 ) _______________

__25_ 15.8 _ 46.0 _ Stargazer ( L1-9 ) ______________________

------------------------------------------------------

Godber1 hit both CET and EWP on the mark (subject to final EWP confirmation on 5th). 

He would have joined the exclusive double first table except that order of entry will drop his ranks as shown (possibly with EWP also, so that by ranks DR(S)NO is close to being tied although not as close on the EWP value). 

This list as always subject to official CET scoring confirmation. Also the order of late entries ignores adjustments for late penalties which for CET amount to losing 2-3 positions and for EWP 1-2. This is the entire list of forecasts within 0.3 of the mark, and our consensus was 15.3. Will update the scoring for consensus and the two normals later. 

would love this to be true, but if you check my ewp forecast it was 88mm.

[damianslaw]

That was a surprise. I hadn't a clue what I guessed. Been far off far too many times recently but spot on this month!

Same temp as 2005 but much drier here and without any notable heat.

Indeed rare to record an appreciably above average month without any notable warmth at any stage.. though I think a few spots hit the high 20s early on, the heat was shortlived and not widespread.

[Roger J Smith]

6 hours ago, Godber 1 said:

would love this to be true, but if you check my ewp forecast it was 88mm.

Yes, thanks for pointing that out, I would have noticed the error tomorrow when I post the scoring summary. As you'll see above in my edit, your entry was correctly stored in the section of the table of contents for EWP forecasts in order, and that's what I use when entering data into the excel file and scoring. I tend to go there first with the entries then up into the CET table, where in your case I inadvertently changed your 88 to 58. If that hadn't been the EWP outcome I imagine the error would have lingered on forever although it would not affect contest scoring as I don't use the CET table for the EWP scoring. So the bottom line is that DR(S)NO likely has the best combined forecast, although I will wait to the 5th and a precise (decimal) value for EWP to confirm the EWP ranks. Well done DR(S)NO. Quite a few others had good combined efforts but they won't rank very high because of the large number of CET forecasts within 0.3 of the outcome, and also a clustering of EWP forecasts around 60 mm. Our consensus was very good this month (15.3 C, 63 mm) who needs a billion dollar supercomputer when you have net-weather wizards at work? 

[Roger J Smith]

Report on Consensus and the two Normals in CET contest

For the CET contest, we do not officially score consensus or the two recent normals. (In the EWP contest they are tracked). So here's an update which shows how our consensus (median rather than mean) and the two normals have been doing. 1991-2020 played December as 1990-2019. All I can report here is their rank in each contest, as the other scoring parameters are a bit too complex for me to recreate after the fact. The rank shown is equivalent to the highest scoring forecaster at that temperature level, some others would have ranked lower (higher rank numbers). 

The number in brackets beside the rank is the number of forecasts submitted. 

 

Robotic forecaster ____ DEC rank ___ JAN rank ___ FEB rank ___ MAR rank ___ APR rank ___ MAY rank ___ JUN rank ____ average rank

Consensus ____________ 27th (97) ___ 16th (78) ___38th (80) ___ 22nd (62) ____ 30th (62) ___ 31st (64) ___ 14th (66) ___ 25th (73)

1981-2010 normal ____ 27th (97) ____51st (78) ___ 5th (80) ____ 36th (62) ____ 37th (62) ___ 48th (64) ___ 28th (66) ___ 33rd (73) 

1991-2020 normal* ___ 4th (97) _____56th (78) ___ 3rd (80)____ 33rd (62) ____ 48th (62) ___ 51st (64) ___ 31st (66) ___ 32nd (73)

Consensus error _______ --0.4 ________ --0.3 _______ --2.1 ______ --0.3 _________ +1.9 _______ +1.0 _______ --0.2 ______ avg abs 0.89

1981-2010 error _______ --0.4 _________ +1.3 _______ --0.7 ______ --0.6 _________ +2.1 _______ +1.6 _______ --1.0 ______ avg abs 1.10

1991-2020 error _______ --0.1 _________ +1.6 _______ --0.2 ______ --0.5 _________ +2.6 _______ +1.8 _______ --0.8 ______ avg abs 1.09

mean bias of consensus is --0.06, mean bias of 1981-2010 is +0.33, mean bias of 1991-2020 is +0.63

ANALYSIS: The scoring performance of all three robotic forecasters was still about the same after May but consensus has pulled into a somewhat more significant lead after June. Normals did better in Feb and our consensus did better in Jan, May and June, there was little to choose in the other three months and in April they all did quite poorly. 

While this is not a complete scoring analysis, forecasters with average errors of 1.0 are ranked around 20th to 30th in the CET contest. They all do better in the EWP where their ranks are closer to 10th. 

======================================================================

Another item of interest is to update the table posted on1st of June (top of page four) of the largest temperature decreases from first half of June to second half of June. That table has been edited to show that 2021 had a decrease of 2.0 C from 16.5 to 14.5, for an average of 15.5. This was the 12th largest decrease in 250 years of data. Since 1940 (--2.2) six other Junes have dropped by more than 2.0 from first to second half. So for these large decreases, more than half the cases (7 of 12) are in the last 32% of the data. 

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Typhoon John]

I think this maybe the first time I've ever been correct

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ran out at 58 mm. (On 5 July the website amended this to 59.6 mm. Scoring is being adjusted.)

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Optimus Prime]

With a CET minimum of 10.9 °C for June, the first half of the year averages 3.9 °C. Coldest first half since 2013 (3.3 °C)

There have been only 8 years since 1980 that were colder;

1986 3.0 °C

1985 3.0 °C

2013 3.3 °C

2010 3.5 °C

1987 3.5 °C

1984 3.6 °C

1996 3.7 °C

1991 3.7 °C

 

 

[Timmytour]

June marks the 7th successive month without a mean CET registering in it top 10% warmest.  That's the longest run we've had since the first seven months of 2016. While both November and December 2015 registered in their warmest 10%, they signalled the end of a run of 11 months from December 2014 without a "warm" month.
 

We also saw a "cold" month (ie one registering in its coldest 10%) in April.  The last time we saw seven months without a warm month that also included a cold month was back in 2013. The very cold March of that year marked the 12th month in a row without a warm month and was followed by another three to register a run of 15  months without one being warm.... the longest such run since the 18 months that started in May 1987.

[The PIT]

14 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

June marks the 7th successive month without a mean CET registering in it top 10% warmest.  That's the longest run we've had since the first seven months of 2016. While both November and December 2015 registered in their warmest 10%, they signalled the end of a run of 11 months from December 2014 without a "warm" month.
 

We also saw a "cold" month (ie one registering in its coldest 10%) in April.  The last time we saw seven months without a warm month that also included a cold month was back in 2013. The very cold March of that year marked the 12th month in a row without a warm month and was followed by another three to register a run of 15  months without one being warm.... the longest such run since the 18 months that started in May 1987.

Depends where you certainly made the top ten here in the warmest and driest categories.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

June marks the 7th successive month without a mean CET registering in it top 10% warmest.  That's the longest run we've had since the first seven months of 2016. While both November and December 2015 registered in their warmest 10%, they signalled the end of a run of 11 months from December 2014 without a "warm" month.
 

We also saw a "cold" month (ie one registering in its coldest 10%) in April.  The last time we saw seven months without a warm month that also included a cold month was back in 2013. The very cold March of that year marked the 12th month in a row without a warm month and was followed by another three to register a run of 15  months without one being warm.... the longest such run since the 18 months that started in May 1987.

Surprised about the 18 months following May 1987, thought Jan and Feb 88 might have been in the milder 10% but possibly just fell short.

 

[J10]

Excel -> Jun 21 CET.xlsx

PDF (Summary) June 2021 Summary.pdf

Monthly
May was a well forcasted month with 5 players getting it spot on and 37 within 0.5c. 

The 5 correct entrants were Typhoon John, DR(S)NO, Frigid, damianslaw and Godber 1

Seasonal

The top 5 in the same order as above.

Overall

A few changes this month.

reef (1st, the same as last month)
nonameweather (2nd from 5th)
BornFromTheVoid (3rd from 7th)

 

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has been set a bit higher now at 59.6 mm. That's enough of an increase (over the tracker 58 mm) that I will need some time to work on the scoring file. And that's not going to happen right away as it has been very hot here and I was out doing things all day so now I'm way too bagged to start into the adjustments. Let's say by around late evening or midnight your time I should have something worked out. 

The 60 mm forecasts will now take the top scores, so congrats to B87, federico, Don and Relativistic who all predicted 60 mm (scoring by order of entry). 

The list presented a few days ago will need some generally minor revisions now that they have moved the result that much. I think it's likely to change a few of the top ten positions slightly although absolute differences will be slight. 

More later when I get a chance to revise the file. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP Contest scoring report

 

TOP SCORES for JUNE __________________________ TOP ANNUAL SCORING

 

Rank __ Forecaster ______ Fcst ___ Points _______ Rank __ Forecaster __ Points __ avg error mm (rank)

 

_01___ B87 ______________ 60.0 ____10.00 ________01___ Feb91Blizzard __ 53.71 ____ 31.61 (3)

_02___ federico __________60.0 ____ 9.88 ________ 02___ snowray ________ 52.02 ____ 31.30 (1)

_03___ Don ______________60.0 ____ 9.76 _________03 ___ Reef ___________ 47.89 ____ 31.50 (2)

_04___ Relativistic^_______60.0 ____ 8.64 ________ 04 ___ Don ____________47.84 ____ 32.84 (4)

_05___ Midlands Ice Age _59.0 ____ 9.25 ________ 05 ___ federico ________47.41 ____ 34.67 (7)

_06___ bobd29 __________ 61.0 ____ 9.06 ________ 06 ___ bobd29 ________ 46.38 ____ 37.21 (12)

_07___ Feb91Blizzard ____61.0 ____ 8.94 _________07 ___ Relativistic _____ 44.33 ____ 34.16 (5)

_08___ snowray __________58.0 ____ 8.69 ________ 09 ___Midlands Ice Age_42.69 ____ 35.86 (9)

_09___ noname_weather_58.0 ____ 8.57 ________ 09 ___ virtualsphere ___ 42.38 ____ 37.13 (11)

_10___ seaside60 ________ 57.0 ____ 8.31 ________10 ___noname_weather_41.76 ___ 39.19 (14)

 

_11___ Timmytour _______56.0 ____ 8.12 ________11 ___ The PIT _________ 41.17 ____ 40.30 (17)

_12___ Jonboy ___________ 56.0 ____ 8.00 ________12 ___ davehsug _______40.93 ____ 35.13 (8)

_13___ DR(S)NO _________ 55.0 ____ 7.75 ________13 ___ February1978 ___ 39.41 ____ 40.13 (16)

_14___ EdStone _________ 65.0 ____ 7.56 ________ 14 ___ seaside60 _______38.99 ____ 38.89 (15)

_15___ February1978 ____67.0 ____7.35 ________ 15 ___ Blast from the Past 38.60 __ 40.64 (21)

_16___ Reef _____________ 52.0 ____ 7.18 ________ 16 ___ Godber 1 ________ 36.86 ___ 40.33 (18)

_17___ daniel*^__________52.0 ____ 6.76 ________17 ___ Roger J Smith ____ 36.29 ___ 38.77 (13)

_18___ SteveB ___________68.0 ____ 6.61 ________18 ___ Ed Stone _________ 35.50 ___ 40.47 (19)

_19___ CheesepuffScott^_51.6 ____6.51 ________19 ___ Jonboy ___________ 35.28 ___ 40.59 (20)

_20___ rwtwm __________ 68.0 ____ 6.49 ________ 20 ___ Leo97t ___________ 34.06 ___ 48.33 (38)

_21___ Mr Maunder ____ 68.0 ____ 6.37 ________ 21 ___ Mulzy ____________ 33.67 ___ 40.87 (22)

_22___ davehsug ________68.0 ____ 6.25 ________ 22 ___ SteveB ___________ 33.30 ___ 43.84 (29)

_23___ Diagonal Red Line 50.0 ___ 6.00 ________ 23 ___ Dr(S)No __________ 33.12 ___ 42.86 (25)

_24___ Leo97t ___________ 50.0 ___ 5.88 ________ 24 ___ Polar Gael ________33.00 ___ 34.59 (6)

_25___ Born from the Void 50.0 __ 5.76 ________ 25 ___ Mr Maunder ____ 32.81 ___ 43.04 (27)

_26___ Robbie Garrett ___70.0 ___ 5.28 ________ 26___ Jeff C _____________32.44 ___ 41.61 (23)

_27___The PIT ___________70.0 ___ 5.16 ________  27___ Frigid (6) _________ 31.89 ___ 36.28 (10)

_28___ Kirkcaldy Weather 70.6___ 4.74 ________ 28 ___ J10 _______________ 32.15 ___ 42.97 (26)

_29___ sundog^_________ 70.0 ___ 4.74 ________ 29 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather_31.49 ___ 48.36 (37)

_30___ WeatherEnthusiast91 72.0___ 4.55________ 30 ___ sundog (6) _______ 31.32 ___ 47.37 (34)

_31___ East Lancs Rain __ 72.0___ 4.43 ________ 31 ___ Stationary Front __30.91 ___ 43.33 (28)

_32___ Thundery Wintry Showers 46.3 __ 4.06 ________ 32 ___ Born From the Void__ 30.50 ___ 42.44 (24)

_33___ BlastFromThePast^__47.0 ___ 3.95 ________33 ___ DiagonalRedLine __30.39 ___ 49.90 (41)

_34___virtualsphere _____ 46.0 ___ 3.88 ________34 ___ Emmett Garland __ 29.17 ___ 45.01 (31)

_35___ Frigid ____________ 45.0 ___ 3.52 ________ 36 ___ Walsall Wood Snow 27.19 ___ 45.00 (30)

_36___ stargazer^________ 46.0 ___ 3.46 ________38 ___ summer blizzard __ 26.27 ___ 45.84 (32)

_37___ J10 _______________ 75.0 ___ 3.09 ________39 ___ syed2878 __________ 25.89 ___ 47.83 (35)

_38___ Mulzy^___________ 44.0 ___ 3.03 ________40 ___ Timmytour _________ 25.30 ___ 50.21 (42)

_39___ Walsall Wood Snow 76.0 __ 2.91 _______42 ___ shillitocettwo _______ 24.75 ___ 49.36 (39)

_40___ Neil N ____________ 77.0 ___ 2.73 _______ 43 ___ Weather26 (6) ______ 24.48 ___ 46.67 (33)

_41___ Stationary Front __77.0 ___ 2.61 _______ 44 ___ stargazer ____________23.86 ___ 50.93 (44)

_42___ weather-history __77.0 ___ 2.49 _______ 45 ___ daniel* ______________ 23.40 ___ 49.87 (40)

_43___ JeffC ______________80.0 ___ 2.17 _______ 46 ___ summer18 __________ 22.63 ___ 51.33 (45)

_44___ syed2878 _________80.0 ___ 2.05 _______ 47 ___ I Remember Atl 252_ 22.54 ___ 56.24 (51)

_45___ Polar Gael ________ 82.0 ___ 1.81 _______ 45 ___ weather-history ____ 21.45 ___ 48.84 (38)

_46___ Let It Snow! _______84.0 ___ 1.63 _______ 46 ___ B87 (4)______________ 19.47 ___ 59.58 --- ---

_47___ Emmett Garland __33.0 ___ 1.50 _______ 47 ___ NeilN _______________ 18.71 ___ 52.70 (48)

_48___ Weather26 ________88.0 ___ 1.25 _______ 50 ___ Earthshine (6) ______ 17.84 ___ 52.12 (46)

_49___ Godber 1 __________88.0 ___ 1.08 _______ 55 ___ CheesepuffScott (4)_16.97 ___ 55.17 --- ---

_50___ Roger J Smith ______89.6 ___ 0.96 _______ 56 ___ Let It Snow! (5) _____ 16.39 ___ 54.32 (49)

_51___ summer blizzard __ 90.0 ___ 0.80 _______ 61 ___ rwtwm (2) __________ 15.11 ___ 17.95 --- ---

_52___ Earthshine ________ 22.0 ___ 0.64 _______ 63 ___ WeatherEnthusiast91 (3) 12.68 ___ 40.37 --- ---

_53___ shillitocettwo ______99.0 ___ 0.48 _______ 65 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers (2) 11.91 ___ 24.20 --- ---

_54___ summer18 _______112.0 ___ 0.16 _______ 88 ___ Robbie Garrett (1) _____ 5.28 ___ 10.40 --- ---

_55___ 38.7 C^_____________15.0 ___ 0.02 _______94 ___ East Lancs Rain (1) _____ 4.43 ___ 12.40 --- ---

_56___ I Rem Atl 252 _____117.0 ___ 0.00 ______ 104 ___ 38.7 C (1) ______________ 0.02 ___ 57.40 --- ---

___ Note: only those who entered June are shown in the annual rankings. The first few missing ranks are

35th Norrance, 37th coldest winter, 41st stewfox, 48th pegg24 

___ To be ranked for average error a minimum of 5/7 contests must be entered. 

 

_________________________________________________________________________

^ score reduced by late penalty (0.30) which may explain any out of sequence error sizes

otherwise entries with same forecasts have scores descending by 0.12 for order of entry.

A number after the forecaster name means that they have entered fewer than all seven contests. The first entry is 27th Frigid (6). 

==============================================================

All scoring details in the attached file. 

EWP2020_21_Jun.xlsx

Edited July 6, 2021 by Roger J Smith
attached scoring file

[damianslaw]

Thanks for the list. Where am I?

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks for the list. Where am I?

Sorry I just added the missing title to that post which is EWP Contest Scoring Report

You are currently 7th in the CET forecast contest. All of those results are back in J10's recent post.