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June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP around 17 mm now, was 13 mm to 16th, locally heavy but widespread near zero on 17th, estimate 4 mm average ... 10-day forecast has pockets of quite heavy rainfalls 80-100 mm but widespread 20-30 mm, here again, blend looks like perhaps 35 mm, so that adds up to around 52 mm by 28th, with some showery conditions depicted for end of month. If that heavier rainfall were to spread out more and have more widespread impact, then these estimates might be considerably low. For now would suggest 55-60 mm looks good, anything 40-100 mm has a chance. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 17.4C +3.9C above normal, Rainfall 5.6mm 7.3% of the monthly average

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: North Hampshire
  • Location: North Hampshire
5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP around 17 mm now, was 13 mm to 16th, locally heavy but widespread near zero on 17th, estimate 4 mm average ... 10-day forecast has pockets of quite heavy rainfalls 80-100 mm but widespread 20-30 mm, here again, blend looks like perhaps 35 mm, so that adds up to around 52 mm by 28th, with some showery conditions depicted for end of month. If that heavier rainfall were to spread out more and have more widespread impact, then these estimates might be considerably low. For now would suggest 55-60 mm looks good, anything 40-100 mm has a chance. 

Quite a bit of rain falling widely in the central south today - many stations over 50mm around here, mine included.....

Edited by February1978
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Wow must have been a major cool down second half of June 82.

Early June 82 had a heatwave with torrential thunderstorms over several days. We had flooding.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

16.7c to the 17th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

2.6 above the 91 to 20 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

================================================

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.1C +3.6C above normal. Rainfall at 11.6mm 15.1% of the monthly average.

Looks like a slow decline next week still looking we end up well above normal and dry but probably not dry enough to finish in the top ten.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.5c to the 18th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest projection for June

June19Proj.thumb.jpg.83447d36fe501130bdbb22a3ba1b9713.jpg June19Prob.thumb.jpg.e818a803a76eed7afedadcc62589d9b2.jpg

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 6.8% (5 days ago was 8.4%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 93.2% (5 days ago was 91.6%)
Below average (<14.2C) remains at 0.0% (5 days ago was 0.0%)

The period of the 19th to the 24th is forecast to average 13.8C, 1.3C below the 91-20 average

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Since we are going to be above 16C to the 20th, do we have any recent years that were above the level by then.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

We seem to be undergoing a little cooling down that seems traditional at this time of year....
image.thumb.png.683ed7490ba75349c568945b503ec4b0.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Since we are going to be above 16C to the 20th, do we have any recent years that were above the level by then.

Since 1900 these are the only Junes to have a CET of 16.0 or higher on the 20th (and the outcomes) ... I included anything above 15.7 recently.

YEAR ____ CET 20th _____ Final CET 

1940 ____ 17.4 __________ 16.4

1970 ____ 16.9 __________ 16.4

1950 ____ 16.4 __________ 16.2

1917 ____ 16.3 __________ 15.2

1982 ____ 16.2 __________ 15.5

2006 ____ 16.2 __________ 15.9

1960 ____ 16.1 __________ 16.1

2017 ____ 16.1 __________ 16.0

1933 ____ 16.0 __________ 15.6

2004 ____ 16.0 __________ 15.3

(2003) ___ 15.9 __________ 16.1

(2007) ___ 15.7 __________ 15.1

(2018) ___ 15.7 __________ 16.1

For the nine above 15.9, the trend was down, losing an average of 0.6 to the end. The three marginal cases I added averaged no change. 

From 1772 to 1900, there were eleven more Junes at or above 16.0 on the 20th, and here we find a few that did get warmer, although the majority lost some ground. So there have been about twenty in total, and counting the marginal cases 15.7 to 15.9 about thirty in all. 

====================================+++++++++++++++++===================================

1976 did not pass 16 until reaching 16.2 on the 26th on the way to finishing 17.0. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading

After yesterday's rain it's going to be interesting to see how the EWP pans out. A huge difference between regions with parts of southern England getting well over 50mm in 24 hours but many areasbof the country getting none at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Was just looking at that, will give an update tomorrow when they have integrated Friday's rain into the tracker, but it was 19 mm to Thursday plus whatever they give for Friday, looks like maybe 12-15 mm since more than half of the country was dry. Assuming it is somewhere in the low 30s, then the further rainfalls from GFS look like 20-30 mm for a finish in the 50-60 mm range. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

So the updates are now posted, they only gave 9 mm for that heavy rainfall in parts of southern England, to reach 28 mm by Friday 18th. My estimate for the Saturday 19th rainfall would be 4 mm (once again, some areas dry, locally up to 20 mm in southwest). That would get the total to 32 mm as of now. 

The ten-day GFS forecast adds about 20-30 mm. So outcome still looking like 50-60 mm range. A few places in southern England will likely have double that amount but it has been quite dry in the north for a change. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 17.1C +3.4C above normal. Rainfall up 14.2mm 18.5% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.4c to the 19th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Shillitocettwo said:

Does anyone know what the biggest month on month swing is? May-June could be a 7.C uplift provided this current cool spell doesn't trash it.....

We are looking at about 6C.

Biggest I would guess at without looking deeper is 6.8C in March-April 1895 ran close by 1956 and 1963.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Turning into a very warm June, although the outlook is for average, even a little below average temps for end June, so we may see a nudge down into the 15s by month's end. Some cool nights are forecast.

The rollercoaster continues, 2021 shaping up to be a very bumpy year.. in sync with life thrown at us so far this year.. a highly meridional pattern, with locked in colder and warmer than average spells, so far despite the cold has won out, but is the warmth fighting back..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I'm not convinced at all that this month is going to finish below 16C- still time for some warmer days before the month is out. I have a feeling the last week is going to end up reasonably warm and will then lead us into a warmer than average July- possibly well above.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The five largest May to June increases for CET ... the first one looks safe enough. 

These are all over a century ago, so I added the three largest ones since 1940. 

Rank ___ Year ___ MAY _ JUN ___ increase

_01 ____ 1676 ___ 10.5 _ 18.0 ___ 7.5

_02 ____ 1817 ____ 8.7 _ 15.1 ___ 6.4 

_03 ____ 1757 ____ 9.4 _ 15.7 ___ 6.3

t 04 ____1826 ___ 11.2 _ 17.3 ___ 6.1

t 04 ____ 1877 ____ 9.1 _ 15.2 ___ 6.1

(since 1940) __

_01 ____ 1941 ____ 9.7 _ 15.1 ___ 5.4

_01 ____ 1996 ____ 9.1 _ 14.3 ___ 5.2

_02 ____ 1968 ____ 9.8 _ 14.8 ___ 5.0

(The largest increase for any month from preceding month is 7.9, three cases of that from April to May (1743, 1808, 1809). 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The five largest May to June increases for CET ... the first one looks safe enough. 

These are all over a century ago, so I added the three largest ones since 1940. 

Rank ___ Year ___ MAY _ JUN ___ increase

_01 ____ 1676 ___ 10.5 _ 18.0 ___ 7.5

_02 ____ 1817 ____ 8.7 _ 15.1 ___ 6.4 

_03 ____ 1757 ____ 9.4 _ 15.7 ___ 6.3

t 04 ____1826 ___ 11.2 _ 17.3 ___ 6.1

t 04 ____ 1877 ____ 9.1 _ 15.2 ___ 6.1

(since 1940) __

_01 ____ 1941 ____ 9.7 _ 15.1 ___ 5.4

_01 ____ 1996 ____ 9.1 _ 14.3 ___ 5.2

_02 ____ 1968 ____ 9.8 _ 14.8 ___ 5.0

(The largest increase for any month from preceding month is 7.9, three cases of that from April to May (1743, 1808, 1809). 

Will be a notable increase! Top 10 easily. Shades of 96 I feel about the weather patterns of present. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 16.8C +3.1C above normal. Rainfall 14.3mm 18.6% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.3c to the 20th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Good to look at the Environment Agency rainfall stats page, weekly rainfall maps. A red sandwich since early April with blue in the middle. Red meaning below average, blue above. Last 3 weeks very red away from SE, next map will be red again for many.

A record dry June may be on the cards for here at least..

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