June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Weather-history]

19 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Looks like a good chance of ending that 13th June anomaly (no max above 30?) ...

Not so sure now, Roger. The Met Office seems to have tempered prospects at least on their latest data readings. 

[Roger J Smith]

What is required, a country-wide max of 30, or some average of 30? I only remember the date part of this from discussions a few years ago now. 

[Stu_London]

Quite a warm looking 18z, although most of it is more to the southeast, so how much impact to the CET the warmth will have is debatable, even if it were to verify. 

Quite striking how this year we have had a couple of flip-flop changes very close to the change of calender months.

Bone dry April followed by May monsoon.

Cold May (albeit warmed up a bit the last couple of days) - to what looks like, at this early stage, being a fairly warm June.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17C +4.3C above normal. Rainfall 3.4mm 4.4% of average.

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 9th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

16.1c to the 9th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

Hadley has got itself stuck again. 

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hadley has got itself stuck again. 

Seems fine to me....

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projection for June

 

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 18.5% (2 days ago was 28.1%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 81.5% (2 days ago was 71.5%)
Below average (<14.2C) is  to 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.4%)

The period of the 10th to the 15th is forecast to average 17.8C, 3.6C above the 91-20 average.

[DAVID SNOW]

51 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Seems fine to me....

Not to me, it should have gone up twice, but instead sticks with 16.1.

It has done this before.

[Scorcher]

For once we agree David- no idea how it hasn't gone up after such a warm day across the CET zone yesterday.

[Derecho]

18 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

For once we agree David- no idea how it hasn't gone up after such a warm day across the CET zone yesterday.

Sometimes the provisional data can get changed if new obs come in that were missing before. Anyhow here is the provisional valies for each day.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2021

[Roger J Smith]

Probably went from 16.06 to 16.14 or similar, so it rounds off the same but actually goes up 0.1 as well. 

Wondering about my earlier question, for the 13th of June business, does it require one countrywide max of 30, or an average of 30? 

[summer blizzard]

One maximum at an official site.

[Roger J Smith]

Well then there's a chance, especially with winds turning more westerly in the regions most likely to have a chance, off the land for East Anglia, Kent. 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.2C +4.4C above normal, Rainfall unchanged at 3.4mm 4.4% of the monthly average.

Could be a good rise today courtesy of a very warm night

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 10th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.3C +4.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Surprised by being a nearly degree above the CET zone very strange.

[damianslaw]

A very warm first half to June on the cards, despite nothing exceptional temperature wise, a few spots might hit 30 degrees. Lack of cool minima I suspect a key factor for the high values, though maxima in some places has consistently been in the low 20s, more akin to a warm spell in July and August.

Could be on course for one of the warmest Junes on record, had a number of these recently, 2017 and 2018. Turning into a rollercoaster year CET wise, major flip from the cold April-May combo... reminding me a lot of 2013.. the June to July changeover..

Edited June 12, 2021 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 11th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

[Optimus Prime]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

A very warm first half to June on the cards, despite nothing exceptional temperature wise, a few spots might hit 30 degrees. Lack of cool minima I suspect a key factor for the high values, though maxima in some places has consistently been in the low 20s, more akin to a warm spell in July and August.

Could be on course for one of the warmest Junes on record, had a number of these recently, 2017 and 2018. Turning into a rollercoaster year CET wise, major flip from the cold April-May combo... reminding me a lot of 2013.. the June to July changeover..

Mean minima is currently running at 11.6 °C (+2.4 °C)

Maxima - 21.3 °C (+2.9 °C)

The Highest maximum - 1976 (22.6 °C)

Highest minimum - 2017 (11.6 °C)

Certainly a chance of both those being broken this year.

June 2013 recorded 13.6 °C so was a pretty cool month overall. 

[Roger J Smith]

I don't see much sustained warmth past Tuesday of this coming week, some rather cool looking days later on, and rapid increases in rainfall now being shown increasingly on model runs. Could end up back in the high 15s eventually. 

[Roger J Smith]

CET seems headed for a finish in the 16s now, if we assume an average of 19 for today to Wednesday (five days) then an average of 16 for 17-30, it comes to a finish of 16.7 C. It would become another warm start - average second half case and fall back a bit from what I expect to be a 17.3 first half. Still one of the warmer Junes in recent decades if it happens that way. I think there's probably a wide range of possible outcomes here, you could imagine the cooler turn being a bit more definite taking the average down to high 15s or low 16s, or it could just turn into subdued warmth in the 17-18 range keeping the mid-month average steady to the end (and a top five finish). 

Meanwhile, EWP is currently on 7 mm, GFS ten-day shows 30-35 mm average for grid, but maps for days 11 to 16 appear quite active with at least 40 mm potential, perhaps even 50-60. This could all add up to 77-102 mm (by the 28th it should be noted). However I think there is a large uncertainty factor in the day 11-16 outlook portion, so people with lower forecasts could still come out fine (he said without much enthusiasm). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back down to 17.2C +4.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Still a long way to go and cooler outlook in lala land can disappear very rapidly.

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 12th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

[Roger J Smith]

Looks as though the June 13 enigma survived, have not seen any hourly obs above 28 C in southern England today. 

What may not survive are two weak CET daily mean record highs, today is 20.5 (1818 and 1989) and 14th June is only 19.4 (1814). That is the only sub-20 daily mean record left in June and seems bound to fall soon if not tomorrow.