June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[seaside 60]

13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'll go with a warm June, matching 2005, 15.5 degrees, indeed a turnaround from May just has happened in 2005. Not expecting another 2018 or 2020 in terms of consistent settled weather, but there will be a fair amount, possibly more so in the first half as currently indicated by the charts, with some temporary shortlived very warm, possibly hot conditions - but not widespread. Perhaps quite a thundery month, some atlantic incursions at times, variable rainfall as a result. Quite a mixed month, a bit of everything for heat and thunder lovers. 

Sounds like the MO 30 dayer. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.6C and 50mm, thanks.

Of note, if May finishes on 10C after corrections, a June CET of 15.9C would make the May to June increase the 10th largest on record. A June of 17.6C would be needed for a new overall record (10.5C to 18.0C in 1676 is the current largest, next largest is 8.7C to 15.1C in 1817).

[Thundery wintry showers]

A warm first half of June, cooler in the second half but not enough to offset the warm first half.  15.4C and 46.3mm please.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[Man With Beard]

16.4C

[reef]

Warmer and drier than average:

15.0C and 52mm

[Mr Maunder]

15.9c and 68mm please.

It looks to me that things are warming up at last……..

MM

[noname_weather]

15.8C and 58mm 

[Mark Bayley]

16c please

[davehsug]

15.1C & 68mm Please.

[Duncan McAlister]

15.2 for me please.

[Don]

The above average theme returns with 15.7C and 60mm please. 

[J10]

15.1c and 75mm.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

The above average theme returns with 15.7C and 60mm please. 

Might be on course for a roller coaster year temp wise, highs and lows  been a long time since we have had a year as such. Indeed can't remember the last time possibly 2009 to an extent.. 

Cold Jan, warmer Feb and March, cold April, May, warm June?...

[February1978]

15.6c and 67mm please

[Kentish Man]

14.9C thanks

[Godber 1]

15.5c and 88mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

===================================

Table of forecasts __ June 2021

=====================================

Numbers in brackets are for order of entry. 

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) ____________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

18.9 _ ------ _ Backtrack ( 6 ) _________________________ 14.8 _ 77.0 _ weather-history ( 34 ) _____

17.5 _ 15.0 _ 38.7*C ( L1-8 ) ________________________

17.2 _ 22.0 _ Earthshine ( 9 ) ________________________14.8 _ 56.0 _ jonboy ( 28 ) _______________

16.4 _ ------ _ Man Without Beard ( 46 ) _____________ 14.7 _ 70.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 36 ) ____

16.1 _ 61.0 _ Feb1991blizzard ( 23 ) _________________14.7 _ 46.0 _ virtualsphere ( 12 ) _________ 

16.0 _ 70.0 _ The PIT ( 24 ) __________________________ 14.7 _ 70.5 _ 1991-2020 average _________

16.0 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 50 ) _____________________ 14.6 _ 77.0 _ Stationary Front ( 10 ) _____

16.0 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-6 ) _______________

15.9 _ 57.0 _ seaside60 ( 42 ) _______________________ 14.5 _ 56.0 _ Timmytour ( 7 ) ____________

15.9 _ 68.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 48 ) ____________________ 14.5 _ 66.3 _ 1981-2010 average _________

15.9 _ 47.0 _ Blast From the Past ( L1-7 ) ___________

15.8 _ 82.0 _ Polar Gael ( 16 ) _______________________ 14.5 _ 50.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 25 ) _____

15.8 _ 76.0 _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _____________ 14.4 _ 80.0 _ Jeff C ( 11 ) _________________ 

15.8 _ 58.0 _ noname_weather ( 49 ) _______________ 14.4 _ 68.0 _ Steve B ( 15 ) _______________

15.8 _ 46.0 _ Stargazer ( L1-9 ) ______________________

15.7 _ 33.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 18 ) _________________ 14.4 _ 84.0 _ LetItSnow! ( 26 ) ___________

15.7 _ 60.0 _ Don ( 53 ) ______________________________ 14.4 _ 99.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 40 ) _______

15.6 _ 72.0 _ East Lancs Rain ( 33 ) __________________ 14.3 _ 58.0 _ snowray ( 22 ) _____________

15.6 _ 50.0 _ BornFromTheVoid ( 44 ) _______________ 14.2 _ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 4 ) ___________

15.6 _ 67.0 _ February1978 ( 55 ) ____________________ 14.2 _112.0_ Summer 18 ( 17 ) __________

15.6 _ 51.6 _ CheesepuffScott ( L1-5 ) _______________

15.5 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _____________________ 13.8 _ 90.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 8 ) _______

15.5 _ 55.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) _________________________ 13.7 _ 77.0 _ NeilN ( 5 ) ___________________

15.5 _ 45.0 _ Frigid ( 37 ) ____________________________ 13.2 _ 60.0 _ B87 ( 2 ) _____________________

15.5 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 43 ) _____________________ 13.0 _117.0_ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 20 ) __

15.5 _ 88.0 _ Godber1 ( 57 ) ________________________ 13.0 _ 80.0 _ syed2878 ( 39 ) __________________

15.4 _ 89.6 _ Roger J Smith ( 27 ) ____________________12.7 _ 72.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 14 ) _____

15.4 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 29 ) _____________________12.0 _ 70.0 _ Robbie Garrett ( 13 ) ____________

15.4 _ 50.0 _ Leo97t ( 41 ) ___________________________

15.4 _ 46.3 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 45 ) _______

15.4 _ 52.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) _________________________

15.3 _ 65.0 _ Ed Stone ( 19 ) _________________________

15.3 _ 59.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 38 ) _________________

15.3 _ 44.0 _ Mulzy ( L1-3 ) __________________________

15.2 _ 61.0 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) ___________________________

15.2 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 52 ) ________________

15.3 _ 63.0 _ consensus ____________________________

15.1 _ 60.0 _ Federico ( 32 ) _________________________ 

15.1 _ 68.0 _ rwtwm ( 21 ) ___________________________ 

15.1 _ 68.0 _ davehsug ( 51 ) ________________________ 

15.1 _ 75.0 _ J10 ( 54 ) _______________________________ 

15.0 _ 52.0 _ Reef ( 47 ) ______________________________ 

15.0 _ 70.0 _ sundog ( L1-4 ) _________________________

14.9 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 31 ) _________________

14.9 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 56 ) ______________________ 

14.9 _ 60.0 _ Relativistic (L1-2) _______________________

 

57 on time entries, consensus (median) 15.2

so far 9 late entries (L-1 to L-9), 66 entries in total, consensus (median) now 15.3.

======================================================================

 

EWP forecasts in order

 

117_IRAtl252 ... 112_sum18 ... 99_shil ... 90_SB ... 89.6_RJS ... 88_wx26, Godb .. 84_LIS ...

 82_PG ... 80_Jeff,syed ... 77_NN,SF,wx-h ... 76_WWS ... 75_J10 .. 72_wx-en,ELR ... 70.8_KW ...

 70.5_91-20 ... 70_RG, PIT, sun^ ... 68_Ste, rwtwm, MrM, dave ... 67_Feb78 ...

 66.3_81-10 .. 65_EdS ... 63.0 con ... 61_bob, Feb91 ... 60_B87, Fed, Don, rel^ .. 59_MIA ...

 58_snow, non ... 57_sea ... 56_tim, jon ... 55_DR(S) ... 52_Reef, dan*^ .. 51.6_CPS^

 50_DRL, leo, BFTV ... 47_BFTP^ .. 46.3_TWS ... 46_virt, Star^ ... 45_Frig ... 44_Mul^

 33_EG ... 22_Earth ... 15_ 38.7*C ^ 

______________________________

48 on time entries, ^ late one day (eight so far) _ 56 forecasts total

_ _ _ consensus now 63.0 mm.

_______________________________ ^ _____________________________

 

It should be noted that the last day entries all went above the previously set consensus (14.8) with perhaps one exception and the trend went slightly drier at the end too. ... After 30th of May the table was balanced with no spaces like it has now, thanks to the late surge of warmer forecasts all going above 14.8 C. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Roger J Smith
Fixing an error in table for Godber 1 EWP

[Don]

42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Might be on course for a roller coaster year temp wise, highs and lows  been a long time since we have had a year as such. Indeed can't remember the last time possibly 2009 to an extent.. 

Cold Jan, warmer Feb and March, cold April, May, warm June?...

June certainly looking like a warmer month and yes, could well be a roller coaster year of temps!  Hopefully the ‘lows’ will also coincide with the winter months!

[Daniel*]

15.4c and 52mm thanks

[Relativistic]

I'll go with 14.9°C and 60mm.

 

[mulzy]

15.3C and 44mm please

[sundog]

15.0c and 70mm for me please.

[CheesepuffScott]

15.6°C and 51.6mm

[Derecho]

16.0C please

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Warm to very warm at times and mainly dry but with thundery outbreaks bringing some downpours .  15.9 C and 47mm

 

 BFTP

Edited June 1, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST