What Is The ENSO Spring Barrier?

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One of the terms that is commonly encountered in seasonal forecast discussions is the “ENSO spring barrier”, or “spring predictability barrier”. It’s often used to highlight uncertainty in the outlook for ENSO (the El Niño – Southern Oscillation) in the first half of the year, and it conveys the general idea that ENSO forecasts are intrinsically more uncertain, or less skillful, in connection with Northern Hemisphere spring.

But how exactly does the ENSO spring barrier work? Does it mean that the future of ENSO is completely uncertain until spring has passed? How bad is the situation? At what time of year should we start distrusting ENSO forecasts, and when can we start to believe them again?

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/05/14/what-is-the-enso-spring-barrier/