Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

[kold weather]

I don't think I could rank this as the very lowest tier where I am, we've had a couple of decent spells that have lasted 7-10 days with temperatures decently above average and sunshine, and there have been some real summer stinkers that didn't even manage that low bar.

Still at least down here, this will go down as a relatively poor summer.

As for the CET, that is reflective of yes there being higher mins (a combo of lots of cloud in the south keeping mins up and the heatwave) and the northern half of the country having very impressive max warmth over a 7-10 day period (the south was obviously warm during day as well, but it was nothing out of the ordinary here tbh).

I suspect for the northern half of the country it will go down as a good summer, for the Midlands probably an average summer, and for the south probably a poor, maybe very poor if August ends up a shocker.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Enjoyed my 2 day summer -again - and got laundry out and dry. Now back to Autumn. Gaaah! Come on I need some sun to get the kids out the house! I hold high hopes for the 1st week of September when I'm on hollibobs Bournemouth way! ...

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Indices. Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom

 

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

1947 255

1933 251

1901 249

1921 249

2021 248 (up to 3rd Aug)

2003 247

2013 247

1925 246

2006 246

1996 245

1935 243

1994 240

[Azazel]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

One heatwave doesn’t make a summer, overnight mins propped up the CET big time. Locally we had 200% rain and less than 90% the LTA for sun. 

This is what some people don't seem to grasp.

If we had a winter of constant 11-14 degrees, but one week where it got quite cold and maybe even snowed, would it be OK to say "You had a great winter, what's all the fuss about?"

[Methuselah]

More to the point is that too many folks think that the southern coastal counties account for the entire UK?

[Arctic Hare]

How I feel about this summer overall obviously depends a bit how August goes, but right now it's 11 °C, windy, dark and raining. Never mind October, this would be a pretty meh November day.

[Stargazer]

Just done a rough calculation of the summer index as it applies to Reading. Using the university weather station's figures, it's 256 up to the end of August, and with their 1991-2020 averages (recently published) an average summer here would be around 263. These figures certainly tally with my perception of a below par summer - the main driver has been the number of rain days, which has to date been well above average, with temperatures slightly above normal and sunshine close to normal overall.

Edited August 5, 2021 by Stargazer

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Arctic Hare said:

How I feel about this summer overall obviously depends a bit how August goes, but right now it's 11 °C, windy, dark and raining. Never mind October, this would be a pretty meh November day.

Wow that seems a bit cool. 18 degrees with drizzle here.

[Mapantz]

Time to stop the childish digs and snide comments.. 

[Nick L]

Well, this is good weather for getting some fresh air inside. That's all I can say for it really. 

Yesterday was gorgeous, and me and my girlfriend went for a stroll into the fields on our doorstep for sunset. As already mentioned above, why can't summer be mostly like yesterday was?

[emmett garland]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Summer Indices. Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom

 

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267 1989 262

1947 255

1933 251

1901 249

1921 249

2021 248 (up to 3rd Aug)

2003 247

2013 247

1925 246

2006 246

1996 245

1935 243

1994 240

Jeepers if we have a heatwave during the 2nd half  of this August we could beat some big summers there..

[Evening thunder]

 

5 hours ago, Alderc said:

One heatwave doesn’t make a summer, overnight mins propped up the CET big time. Locally we had 200% rain and less than 90% the LTA for sun. 

 

5 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Not in the south it hasn't, I would go so far as to say it has been one of the coolest in living memory

It may be true that mins have held mean temps up a bit, However mean maxima (my preferred stat) were above average for most of the UK too, and near average in the SE. I don't like saying people are wrong as such, but it's not been even nearly one of the coolest down here. 
For instance my mean max in June 2012 was 3.0C cooler, and July 2012 3.3C cooler.

Here is the mean maximum temperature anomaly for July 2021 and July 2020. Even down here in the SW mean maxima were slightly above average in July. For almost all of the UK, 2021 was warmer than 2020 which was a poor month for many.

Interesting how the the SE has had two near average July's temperature wise, while parts of the North/West have had two very different Julys, 4-5C apart in places.

June was also slightly warmer than average for most, sunshine ok for the UK as a whole in both months:

With those temps and near average sunshine here, I just can't put this summer in the poorest category.

True the hot spell balanced out spells of poor weather in the south, but then average summers feature that to various degrees. Maybe this is a more extreme example of that. I guess more consistently average weather would give more 'pleasant' days and less 'poor' days than this summer, but then people might complain our weather is samey/bland haha, and no heatwaves for those that like them. Maybe the only thing in it would be to change our climate averages.

Edited August 5, 2021 by Evening thunder

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

 

 

It may be true that mins have held mean temps up a bit, However mean maxima (my preferred stat) were above average for most of the UK too, and near average in the SE. I don't like saying people are wrong as such, but it's not been even nearly one of the coolest down here. 
For instance my mean max in June 2012 was 3.0C cooler, and July 2012 3.3C cooler.

Here is the mean maximum temperature anomaly for July 2021 and July 2020. Even down here in the SW mean maxima were slightly above average in July. For almost all of the UK, 2021 was warmer than 2020 which was a poor month for many.

Interesting how the the SE has had two near average July's temperature wise, while parts of the North/West have had two very different Julys, 4-5C apart in places.

June was also slightly warmer than average for most, sunshine ok for the UK as a whole in both months:

With those temps and near average sunshine here, I just can't put this summer in the poorest category.

True the hot spell balanced out spells of poor weather in the south, but then average summers feature that to various degrees. Maybe this is a more extreme example of that. I guess more consistently average weather would give more 'pleasant' days and less 'poor' days than this summer, but then people might complain our weather is samey/bland haha, and no heatwaves for those that like them. Maybe the only thing in it would be to change our climate averages.

True.  Maybe we were just spoilt last summer but I've never known it be so consistently average, dull, wet....We've had a few beautiful weeks of weather and a heatwave that lasted 5 days but otherwise it's been poor.

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by TwisterGirl81

[I remember Atlantic 252]

August autumn on GFS 12Z, not far off showing the first snows of 2021-22 season for far north? shows how cold it can get later in Aug

[Emz by the Thames]

I've......put the heating on. 

It's 14.c and wet outside and I can smell the mildew growing in here. There's damp washing on the rack and we've not had the heaters on for a couple of months. There seem to be little residual heat in the building, possibly because the nights have been cool. So yeah, cool, damp...click.

So depressing for summer.

I wouldn't mind so much except apart from a distant rumble last week  - I've had no storms, either.

Drab! 

 

[Eugene]

Still very humid, there's hardly been any fresher weather this Summer, nice cool fresh weather in Summer is becoming rarer by the year, even synoptics that use to bring cooler 850's our way isn't anymore. Warmer tropical airmasses are dominating more of the north atlantic than ever before during Summer months.

[Arctic Hare]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Wow that seems a bit cool. 18 degrees with drizzle here.

I was sufficiently surprised that I went out in it as a crude bit of quality control... and yep, in the rain it really did feel that bad. More recently, with just grey murk and drizzle, it's been up to a staggering 16 °C.

[sarahng]

5th August and it's like a day in October here.  So dark at 1945, windy and drizzle.  We are only halfway through 'proper' summer and it feels like autumn already.  I want to go and live anywhere where you are guaranteed a proper summer.

[al78]

2 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

 

 

It may be true that mins have held mean temps up a bit, However mean maxima (my preferred stat) were above average for most of the UK too, and near average in the SE. I don't like saying people are wrong as such, but it's not been even nearly one of the coolest down here. 
For instance my mean max in June 2012 was 3.0C cooler, and July 2012 3.3C cooler.

Here is the mean maximum temperature anomaly for July 2021 and July 2020. Even down here in the SW mean maxima were slightly above average in July. For almost all of the UK, 2021 was warmer than 2020 which was a poor month for many.

Interesting how the the SE has had two near average July's temperature wise, while parts of the North/West have had two very different Julys, 4-5C apart in places.

June was also slightly warmer than average for most, sunshine ok for the UK as a whole in both months:

With those temps and near average sunshine here, I just can't put this summer in the poorest category.

True the hot spell balanced out spells of poor weather in the south, but then average summers feature that to various degrees. Maybe this is a more extreme example of that. I guess more consistently average weather would give more 'pleasant' days and less 'poor' days than this summer, but then people might complain our weather is samey/bland haha, and no heatwaves for those that like them. Maybe the only thing in it would be to change our climate averages.

Take out the one week of hot weather and what does the mean maximum temperature anomaly look like for the SE?

If you have 75% of a month cool and damp, and 25% of it blazing hot and sunny, it will still be a poor summer month overall because most outdoor activities will be marred by the rain, just like if a month had zero rain for 29 days, then a severe thunderstorm dropped four inches on the last day, it would still be a dry month.

[Azazel]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Well, this is good weather for getting some fresh air inside. That's all I can say for it really. 

Yesterday was gorgeous, and me and my girlfriend went for a stroll into the fields on our doorstep for sunset. As already mentioned above, why can't summer be mostly like yesterday was?

This is the happy medium I can definitely agree on - yesterday was lovely here. Warm enough for me to be in a t shirt but not too hot to do activities. Shame there’s only been about 3-4 of those days in the past 4 months 

[Evening thunder]

2 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

True.  Maybe we were just spoilt last summer but I've never known it be so consistently average, dull, wet....We've had a few beautiful weeks of weather and a heatwave that lasted 5 days but otherwise it's been poor.

 

Yeah we've had our fair share of poorer/meh days to be fair. I think I'm most disappointed by the lack of thunder this summer here though. No plumes apart from that Friday night that broke down the hot spell where the storms all died off the coast of Devon/Cornwall, while Dorset east got them.

50 minutes ago, al78 said:

Take out the one week of hot weather and what does the mean maximum temperature anomaly look like for the SE?

If you have 75% of a month cool and damp, and 25% of it blazing hot and sunny, it will still be a poor summer month overall because most outdoor activities will be marred by the rain, just like if a month had zero rain for 29 days, then a severe thunderstorm dropped four inches on the last day, it would still be a dry month.

I don't know without digging deeper into the stats and doing some analysis. Obviously the rating would be lower, like if you remove any hot or cold spell from any summer or winter month. However I feel there's a tendency for our 'poorer' spells to last longer, balancing out heatwaves/plumes that deviate further from the average. Hence '3 fine days and a thunderstorm' (as if..).

Even July 2012, which was 3.3C colder here by mean max, had a very warm spell at the end reducing the month's negative temperature anomaly. Without that, it would have been even cooler.
Up until the 23rd July 2012 I had only recorded 4 days above 20C that summer, and loads stuck in the mid teens... That's a terrible summer.
This summer, I had 32 days above 20C by the 23rd July (I'm now up to 41 days).

I am not actually trying to argue that it hasn't been 'poor' for some in the S/SE, even if monthly means have come out near average (apart from being wet).
I just can't quite agree with posts suggesting this summer has been horrific, dire etc like 2012, for significant amounts of the UK.

Edited August 5, 2021 by Evening thunder

[Aphelion369]

Perceptions have obviously been skewed and distorted by the last few summers, particularly here in London and the Southeast, to the point that some people have almost come to expect +35C temperatures every year. The average annual max at Heathrow, for example, for the last five summers is around 35.5C! So when these temps don’t materialise for just one summer, bitter disappointment naturally ensues and all sense of proportion goes out of the window. Admittedly, rainfall amounts have indeed been a bit high and sunshine on the low side, which no doubt adds to the general impression of gloominess. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Well the BBC weather extended forecast (9.55pm BBC news) has just cheered me up. Rubbish this weekend. Settling down mid week and warmer (of course) and then yet another grotty low pressure for the weekend of the 14th/15th August. You couldn't make it up. You really couldn't. 

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Summer Indices. Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom

 

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

1947 255

1933 251

1901 249

1921 249

2021 248 (up to 3rd Aug)

2003 247

2013 247

1925 246

2006 246

1996 245

1935 243

1994 240

Down she goes...

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, sarahng said:

5th August and it's like a day in October here.  So dark at 1945, windy and drizzle.  We are only halfway through 'proper' summer and it feels like autumn already.  I want to go and live anywhere where you are guaranteed a proper summer.

Mmm I say we are past peak mid summer roughly third week July.. I include last 10 days May and first 15 in September as the summer window.. next week for me marks the end of 'high summer', when my expectations take a downturn. This year these have started earlier..