Hurricane season 2021

[karyo]

As the system is getting better organised the models are shifting its track further east.  A day or so ago the models were going for a Mexico/Texas landfall. Now Louisiana looks more likely but the eastward shift is continuing so maybe states further east in the Gulf will get it.

[Had Worse]

59 minutes ago, karyo said:

As the system is getting better organised the models are shifting its track further east.  A day or so ago the models were going for a Mexico/Texas landfall. Now Louisiana looks more likely but the eastward shift is continuing so maybe states further east in the Gulf will get it.

Hopefully not another Irma in the making. Hector the palm tree isnt up to that sort of pummelling anymore.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Had Worse

[karyo]

21 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Hopefully not another Irma in the making. Hector the palm tree isnt up to that sort of pummelling anymore.

It will be a very interesting couple of days of monitoring this storm develop.

[Had Worse]

NOAA just updated and now two red areas and an amber.

The pot is beginning to bubble.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Had Worse

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Pretty concerning to say the least. This will be tapping into waters that will add rocket fuel to the system. Most of the GoM is at or above 30c right now. 

[karyo]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Pretty concerning to say the least. This will be tapping into waters that will add rocket fuel to the system. Most of the GoM is at or above 30c right now. 

Yes, but at least it is not heading for poor Mexico which has already suffered a lot from Grace.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, but at least it is not heading for poor Mexico which has already suffered a lot from Grace.

True. This one though I can foresee a potential category 5 in the making, if windshear levels remain low, and land interaction remains minimal. Could even start to bomb down by tonight as a named storm. 

[Thunder Snow]

We have tropical depression 9

[Had Worse]

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Cayman Islands. Breezy but very useable weather to have a beer and relax in a deck chair.

Some how, I think that could change quite markedly.

[karyo]

The gfs is consistent with a Louisiana landfall and it then develops another Gulf hurricane by 240 hours! 

With La Nina developing, we could be having a very active autumn ahead of us.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very interesting track now of Nora, now forecasted to actually head up the Gulf of California. Not sure I’ve ever seen that before! Maybe Arizona/SE Nevada getting hit?! 

[matty40s]

 

[swebby]

3 hours ago, matty40s said:

 

Yesterdays GFS 0z had it becoming a major hurricane and heading north through the mid Atlantic and pitching up on the coast of Cornwall as a post tropical depression late next week for what would have probably been our first named storm of Autumn.  Todays 0z has it doing a grand tour of the Atlantic basin and ending up over the Azores as a low pressure system with potential for it to then reform if it was to take that track - it would mean Larry may be with us for some time.

Either of these solutions is better than another major shift west by the models - if this was to hit the Caribbean or US East coast that would be a bad result.

[karyo]

37 minutes ago, swebby said:

Yesterdays GFS 0z had it becoming a major hurricane and heading north through the mid Atlantic and pitching up on the coast of Cornwall as a post tropical depression late next week for what would have probably been our first named storm of Autumn.  Todays 0z has it doing a grand tour of the Atlantic basin and ending up over the Azores as a low pressure system with potential for it to then reform if it was to take that track - it would mean Larry may be with us for some time.

Either of these solutions is better than another major shift west by the models - if this was to hit the Caribbean or US East coast that would be a bad result.

The latest NHC update makes this a major hurricane by the weekend. So rapid intensification is expected.

 

With the current model outputs, I think places like the Bermuda and Nova Scotia need to watch this storm.

[matty40s]

Really not wanted at this point in time....

 

[summer blizzard]

91L appears to have a broad low level circulation on satellite so may be named albeit its now close to landfall. 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Had Worse]

 A very slight change this morning, One of the areas off West Africa has changed to Yellow. Other than that all pretty quiet LOL ;)

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

 A very slight change this morning, One of the areas off West Africa has changed to Yellow. Other than that all pretty quiet LOL

The disturbance in the bay of campeche is getting organised. We should easily see a tropical storm out of that. Texas and Louisiana need to watch out as there is the potential of a lot of rain on already saturated ground.

[matty40s]

Could well be Nicholas by the morning!!

 

Ah, OK, already gone...

 

Edited September 12, 2021 by matty40s

[matty40s]