Hurricane season 2021

[matty40s]

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2021 by matty40s

[karyo]

The NHC now gives an 80% chance of development for the disturbance in the bay of campeche. 

[karyo]

We now have Claudette, the third named storm of the season. 

It will all quiet again very soon though with nothing else in the tropics to attract the eye.

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kiwi]

A winter hurricane (southern hemisphere) for Uruguay??

 

[matty40s]

 

[karyo]

5 hours ago, matty40s said:

 

The second area in mid Atlantic is getting better organised. The NHC is now giving 80% chance of development by the end of the week as it moves west/northwest towards the Caribbean. 

[Had Worse]

Not been really following the season as home life has maxed out.

Looks like a conveyor is setting up and its way way before September.

[karyo]

46 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Not been really following the season as home life has maxed out.

Looks like a conveyor is setting up and its way way before September.

Yes, an above average season is expected. The models so far don't make much fuss about it but this can easily change.

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Jo Farrow]

Green list favourite Barbados now under TS warning

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe  NHC 

https://www.barbadosweather.org/

[kold weather]

On 30/06/2021 at 15:07, karyo said:

Yes, an above average season is expected. The models so far don't make much fuss about it but this can easily change.

Having already had one MDR system before August is a fairly solid indicator of an above average hurricane season. A pretty decent portion of seasons that have managed a true tropical MDR system have gone on to be above average. Should we manage to get another (basically south of 20n and east of 60w) than that is a very powerful signal that makes an above average season already nailed on, and indeed pretty much all the legendary seasons have featured this (1933, 1995, 2005, 2017, 2020, etc). Only 2013 has featured two MDR storms and not gone on to be above average.

So without putting the jinx on it, its probably more a question of how above average we go, rather than will we go above average.

Also worth noting Elsa is 5 days ahead of even 2020 at the moment, insane speed!

Edited July 1, 2021 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Having already had one MDR system before August is a fairly solid indicator of an above average hurricane season. A pretty decent portion of seasons that have managed a true tropical MDR system have gone on to be above average. Should we manage to get another (basically south of 20n and east of 60w) than that is a very powerful signal that makes an above average season already nailed on, and indeed pretty much all the legendary seasons have featured this (1933, 1995, 2005, 2017, 2020, etc). Only 2013 has featured two MDR storms and not gone on to be above average.

So without putting the jinx on it, its probably more a question of how above average we go, rather than will we go above average.

Also worth noting Elsa is 5 days ahead of even 2020 at the moment, insane speed!

Wrong latitude but you can see below how favourable the current Atlantic is with an active ITCZ. ONI is still neutral-negative and the QBO more favourable.

 

Unlike last year though the Caribbean is actually pretty sheared (was record low early last year) so we may see a more active Cape Verde season and more normal season closer to the islands (opposite of last year). Worth noting a -PDO while favouring activity can also produce seasons like 2013 which featured a lot of weak rubbish.

 

[karyo]

Elsa has strengthened into a hurricane!

She is the earliest fifth storm on record and likely to remain a hurricane up to Dominican Republic then back down to tropical storm due to interaction with land. 

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by karyo

[Jo Farrow]

40 minutes ago, karyo said:

Elsa has strengthened into a hurricane!

She is the earliest fifth storm on record and likely to remain a hurricane up to Dominican Republic then back down to tropical storm due to interaction with land. 

 

Just started a separate thread for her https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/95758-hurricane-elsa/?tab=comments#comment-4522527 

 

[matty40s]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorm activity has increased a bit this morning in association with the low pressure system located about 200 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida. Nearby buoy observations also indicate that surface pressures have been falling close to the center of this system. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located primarily south and east of the center. Environmental conditions are forecasted to become a bit more favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or so while the low meanders offshore of the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[summer blizzard]

Credit to Matt Hugo for the Euro tropical convection forcast but it looks like we will see a standing wave somewhere near Africa and dominant trades in the central Pacific for much of August. This would suggest a pretty good chance of a strong peak season. 

[matty40s]

Still nothing in the Atlantic, however, we are up to H on the other side.

 

 

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Hilda, located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E, located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Showers and a few thunderstorms persist near a low pressure system located about 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The low is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while continuing to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico. Development is not likely by late Monday once the system begins moving over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Edited August 1, 2021 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]