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May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    The coldest UK May for 25 years following on from the coldest UK April for 35 years.

    Is Covid doing the business for us on climate change?    :)

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    To gauge how unusually cold the last 31 days had been, if we start from the date of when the Arctic blast struck on the 5th of April   5th April -5th May 2021: ~6.4C 5th April-5th May 1

    The CET minimum for April-May was about 3.4C, coldest CET minimum since at least 1878 The CET minimum for 3rd April-2nd May was a remarkable 0.7C  (April was 1.0C) which was a record  

    Agreed with both previous posters, high pressure builds in a fairly bad place for warming to occur, at least it may stop raining. EWP to 80 mm currently (74 mm to 16th and about 6 mm on map for 17th),

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    The coldest UK May for 25 years following on from the coldest UK April for 35 years.

    Is Covid doing the business for us on climate change?    🙂

    Wouldn't surprise me to see the warmest UK June for 45 years from looking at the models. Reminiscent of June 18

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    On 07/05/2021 at 07:01, Weather-history said:

    To gauge how unusually cold the last 31 days had been, if we start from the date of when the Arctic blast struck on the 5th of April

     

    5th April -5th May 2021: ~6.4C

    5th April-5th May 1986: 6.8C  (April: 5.8C)

    5th April-5th May 1941: 7.1C  (April: 6.4C)

    5th April-5th May 1936: 6.7C  (April: 6.3C)

    5th April-5th May 1922: 6.4C  (April: 5.5C)

    5th April-5th May 1917: 7.0C (April: 5.4C)

    5th April-5th May 1908: 6.9C (April: 6.0C)

    5th April-5th May 1903: 7.0C (April: 6.4C)

    5th April-5th May 1891: 6.8C (April: 6.1C)

    5th April-5th May 1888: 6.9C (April: 6.2C)

    5th April-5th May 1887: 6.5C (April: 6.2C)

    5th April-5th May 1879: 5.9C (April: 5.7C)

    5th April-5th May 1877: 6.3C (April: 7.0C)

    5th April-5th May 1860: 6.5C (April: 5.7C)

    5th April-5th May 1847: 7.2C (April: 6.6C)

    5th April-5th May 1839: 7.7C (April: 6.4C)

    5th April-5th May 1838: 7.4C (April: 6.1C)

    5th April-5th May 1837: 5.8C (April: 4.7C)

    5th April-5th May 1812: 5.5C (April 5.5C)

    5th April-5th May 1809: 6.0C (April 5.2C)

    5th April-5th May 1808: 7.4C (April: 5.8C)

    5th April-5th May 1793: 7.0C (April: 6.2C)

    5th April-5th May 1790: 7.2C (April: 6.1C)

    5th April-5th May 1784: 7.2C (April: 5.7C)

    5th April-5th May 1782: 5.3C (April: 5.2)

    5th April-5th May 1780: 6.3C (April: 7.4C)

    5th April-5th May 1772: 7.2C (April: 7.2C)

     

     

     

     

    5th April-5th May 1782: 5.3C

    5th April-5th May 1812: 5.5C

    5th April-5th May 1837: 5.8C

    5th April-5th May 1879: 5.9C

    5th April-5th May 1809: 6.0C

    5th April-5th May 1780: 6.3C

    5th April-5th May 1877: 6.3C

    5th April-5th May 1922: 6.4C

    5th April-5th May 2021: 6.4C

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

    The coldest UK May for 25 years following on from the coldest UK April for 35 years.

    Is Covid doing the business for us on climate change?    🙂

    Not really, the UK is just a tiny, tiny percentage of the worlds landmass. Global temperatures are still close to record breaking highs and I don't see how added heat into our climate system can mysteriously vanish.

    Global temperatures will continue upwards with only volcanic eruptions in the long run having a temporary impact on them unless we cut our emissions. The uncertainty regionally is that atmospheric circulation determines how that heat is distributed.

    Climate change won't mean above average temperatures in the UK every month with warm records being broken... unless atmospheric circulation changes to support such a move. Warmer global temperatures however just increase the likelihood of warm records being broken (due to increasingly large and notable warm anomalies) and events such as flooding due to warmer Sea Surface Temperatures. Covid saw too small a drop in GhG emissions to have a noticeable impact on global temperatures.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Not really, the UK is just a tiny, tiny percentage of the worlds landmass. Global temperatures are still close to record breaking highs and I don't see how added heat into our climate system can mysteriously vanish.

    Global temperatures will continue upwards with only volcanic eruptions in the long run having a temporary impact on them unless we cut our emissions. The uncertainty regionally is that atmospheric circulation determines how that heat is distributed.

    Climate change won't mean above average temperatures in the UK every month with warm records being broken... unless atmospheric circulation changes to support such a move. Warmer global temperatures however just increase the likelihood of warm records being broken (due to increasingly large and notable warm anomalies) and events such as flooding due to warmer Sea Surface Temperatures. Covid saw too small a drop in GhG emissions to have a noticeable impact on global temperatures.

    I don't think the original comment was supposed to be taken so seriously... I'd appreciate not having another GW derailment in the wrong thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Frigid said:

    Wouldn't surprise me to see the warmest UK June for 45 years from looking at the models. Reminiscent of June 18

    Don't tell me I've gone too low with my 15.7C already! 😜🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters and cool, wet springs and summers.
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
    7 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    I don't think the original comment was supposed to be taken so seriously... I'd appreciate not having another GW derailment in the wrong thread.

    agreed , cannot be doing with another derailment & mass toy throwing event yet again. regardless of beliefs, keep it to the appropriate thread or shut up. 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    1 hour ago, Frigid said:

    Wouldn't surprise me to see the warmest UK June for 45 years from looking at the models. Reminiscent of June 18

    I hope you are right though the last time we started a year with five months delivering an aggregate monthly mean CET of less than 33C   (this year is 31.9C) with a flamin' June was in 1970 and that followed a very warm May.  

    We are due a warm June I suppose.   I think it's a remarkable month for CET.  Since 1970 we have had six Junes that have have registered in the top ten percent of warmest Junes, registering a mean of 15.7C or more. But, very much against the tendency of recent decades, we have had in that time the same number of month that have registered in the top ten percent of coldest Junes as well, coming in at 13C or below.

    And while the warmest June in all that time (1976) was still a full 1.2C below the warmest June of all time (1846) , the June of 1972 was the coldest June there has been in the last 335 years, only 0.3C warmer than 1675 and as cold as 1909 and 1916. 

    Seems to be a nice monthly mean CET correlation between 1972 and 2021 at present....
    image.thumb.png.fa597f8b2bd004f09d99d98cd5c9984f.png
     

     But before anyone gets worried, the max CET in June 1972 only reached 18C on two days so I think that's blown out of the water already!!    

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    Posted (edited)
    2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

    I don't think the original comment was supposed to be taken so seriously... I'd appreciate not having another GW derailment in the wrong thread.

    Given that the user has questioned GW in previous posts, it's reasonable to suggest it was a dig, wasn't me who dangled the carrot...

    Besides someone may read that comment and think it is true, so the reason why I post it is for a fact check, nothing more to it.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

    It would be interesting to compare the average CET for the first halves of the months so far this year against others - quite a few months so far with a warm up towards the end after a cold start.  June does look set to break that pattern though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Good job I'm not being stalked by anyone in denial that Climate Change exists and is warming up our climate dramatically! Otherwise they would no doubt be quickly latching onto such posts of mine as the following  posted in the Annual CET  thread!!!!  😃

    image.thumb.png.5907e6edcae68b8643dd6d8c2b45c678.png

    Anyway, as I think has already been noted, the rolling twelve month mean CET has now fallen below 10C .  I wonder when the next time it will rise above 10C will be?   By my reckoning it would require a June of 1976 proportions to get us back to 10C.  That would certainly be something as I don't think we've had any other June apart from 1976 in over 160 years that would do the trick!  Although curiously there were SIX of them in the preceding 100 years that would do the trick!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    8 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    At 10.1c May 2021 shares the same mean CET with May's:

    1772

    1850

    1951

    1987

     

     

     

    Interesting to note same as 1987, that came on the back of a very dry but much warmer April than this year.. it was also quite wet I think. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    6 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    The coldest UK May for 25 years following on from the coldest UK April for 35 years.

    Is Covid doing the business for us on climate change?    🙂

    At the start of the year I bet very few if any would have banked on the coldest April since 1986 followed by the coldest May since 1996!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    Posted (edited)
    15 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    Good job I'm not being stalked by anyone in denial that Climate Change exists and is warming up our climate dramatically! Otherwise they would no doubt be quickly latching onto such posts of mine as the following  posted in the Annual CET  thread!!!!  😃

    image.thumb.png.5907e6edcae68b8643dd6d8c2b45c678.png

    Anyway, as I think has already been noted, the rolling twelve month mean CET has now fallen below 10C .  I wonder when the next time it will rise above 10C will be?   By my reckoning it would require a June of 1976 proportions to get us back to 10C.  That would certainly be something as I don't think we've had any other June apart from 1976 in over 160 years that would do the trick!  Although curiously there were SIX of them in the preceding 100 years that would do the trick!! 

    Fair enough, given I have a housemate who believes our warming climate was caused by a storm in the 1300s, I think people will believe anything, especially given some of the theories I read...

    We had a cool July last year, so if we get a warm June followed by a warm July, that could send it back above 10C again. Can't see 2021 challenging the annual CET record however, that is for sure...

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    It's interesting that just when cold flipped to warm in western Europe, warm flipped to cold in eastern North America. Toronto airport had its latest measurable snowfall in its records on Friday 28th and quite a few places in eastern N America had record low maxima on Friday and Saturday, including NYC which broke a daily record from 1884. 

    The net result was that anomalies running at +1 to +2 were cut back to near average by large daily anomalies in the last four days. And just a few days before all that, it was over 30 C in many places in the same region. 

    It has also turned very hot here in the west, highs yesterday and today near 35 C. (normal here about 24 C)

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    The CET minimum for April-May was about 3.4C, coldest CET minimum since at least 1878

    The CET minimum for 3rd April-2nd May was a remarkable 0.7C  (April was 1.0C) which was a record

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green
    5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    The CET minimum for April-May was about 3.4C, coldest CET minimum since at least 1878

    The CET minimum for 3rd April-2nd May was a remarkable 0.7C  (April was 1.0C) which was a record

     

     

     

    Are there any later 30 day periods below 1?

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    4 hours ago, Typhoon John said:

    Are there any later 30 day periods below 1?

    Could be pedantic and say later in a year there will be but I not what you are meaning.

    I don't think there will be given April 2021 has the lowest CET minimum on record for April and that was 1.0C 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Report on Consensus and the two Normals in CET contest

    For the CET contest, we do not officially score consensus or the two recent normals. (In the EWP contest they are tracked). So here's an update which shows how our consensus (median rather than mean) and the two normals have been doing. 1991-2020 played December as 1990-2019. All I can report here is their rank in each contest, as the other scoring parameters are a bit too complex for me to recreate after the fact. The rank shown is equivalent to the highest scoring forecaster at that temperature level, some others would have ranked lower (higher rank numbers). 

    The number in brackets beside the rank is the number of forecasts submitted. 

     

    Robotic forecaster ____ DEC rank ___ JAN rank ___ FEB rank ___ MAR rank ___ APR rank ___ MAY rank ______ average rank

    Consensus ____________ 27th (97) ___ 16th (78) ___38th (80) ___ 22nd (62) ____ 30th (62) ___ 31st (64) ______ 27th (74)

    1981-2010 normal ____ 27th (97) ____51st (78) ___ 5th (80) ____ 36th (62) ____ 37th (62) ___ 48th (64) ______ 34th (74) 

    1991-2020 normal* ___ 4th (97) _____56th (78) ___ 3rd (80)____ 33rd (62) ____ 48th (62) ___ 51st (64) ______ 33rd (74)

    Consensus error _______ --0.4 ________ --0.3 _______ --2.1 ______ --0.3 _________ +1.9 _______ +1.0 _______ avg abs 1.0

    1981-2010 error _______ --0.4 _________ +1.3 _______ --0.7 ______ --0.6 _________ +2.1 _______ +1.6 _______ avg abs 1.1

    1991-2020 error _______ --0.1 _________ +1.6 _______ --0.2 ______ --0.5 _________ +2.6 _______ +1.8 _______ avg abs 1.1

    mean bias of consensus is --0.03, mean bias of 1981-2010 is +0.55, mean bias of 1991-2020 is +0.87

    ANALYSIS: The scoring performance of all three robotic forecasters is still about the same but consensus pulled into a small lead after May, Normals did better in Feb and our consensus did better in Jan and May, there was little to choose in the other three months and in April they all did quite poorly. 

    While this is not a complete scoring analysis, forecasters with average errors of 1.0 are ranked around 20th to 30th in the CET contest. They all do better in the EWP where their ranks are closer to 10th. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Could be pedantic and say later in a year there will be but I not what you are meaning.

    I don't think there will be given April 2021 has the lowest CET minimum on record for April and that was 1.0C 

    As we only have the daily minimum and maximum CET values from 1878, it is possible that some cold Aprils before 1878 would have had a lower CET minimum than April 2021 but do not show up in the records.

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    Excel May 21 CET.xlsx

    PDF  ( Summary)  May 2021 Summary.pdf

    Monthly

    May was a cold month, but this time it was much better forecasted with 13 within 0.5c. 

    Well done to I remember Atlantic 252, the only one getting it spot on.

    image.thumb.png.9d83ecc69dfc8a28e4ceb4b2288c8d3d.png

    Seasonal

    After the massive changes last month, the Top 5 remain completely unchanged to conclude the Spring 2021 competition.

    The Top 3 therefore remains, Polar Gael in 1st, Roger J Smith in 2nd and Quicksilver1989 in 3rd.

    image.thumb.png.712258070300470cbfd04a4d8d36a5d4.png

    Overall

    Not much change either in the overall competition.

    reef (1st, the same as last month)
    Timmytour (2nd from 4th)
    Weather-history (3rd, the same as last month)

    image.thumb.png.a7094edd0aeb00be3c63d2d5a8b7cac1.png
     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

     

    Combined Rankings for the CET and EWP contests

     

    RANK __avg _ CET _ EWP __Forecaster ________ avg C err (rank) __ avg mm error (rank) 

    _ 01 ___ 02.0__ 01 __ 03 __ Reef (6) _____________ 0.70 (2) _______ 35.42 (1) 

    _ 02 ___ 06.0__ 06 __ ---- ____ Quicksilver1989 (6) _0.75 (3t)

    _ 03 ___ 07.0__t13 __ 01 __ Feb1991Blizzard (6) _ 1.03 (18t) _____ 36.58 (4) 

    _ 04 ___ 10.0__ 05 __ 15 __ noname_weather (6)__0.78 (6) _______ 45.38 (20)  

    _ 05 ___ 12.5__ 15 __ 10 __ Roger J Smith (6) _____1.20 (29t) ______ 40.30 (8) 

    _ 06 ___ 13.0 __t13 __ ---- _____ damianslaw (6) __ 0.90 (8t) 

    _t07 ___ 13.5__ 22 __ 05 __ Don (6) ______________ 1.15 (26) ______ 38.18 (5) 

    _t07 ___ 13.5__ 10 __ 17 __ Polar Gael (6) ________0.95 (10t) ______ 36.55 (3) 

    _ 09 ___ 14.0__ 16 __ 12 __ davehsug (6) _________0.95 (10t) ______ 39.52 (8) 

    _ 10 ___ 17.0__ 28 __ 06 __ Federico (6) _________ 1.03 (18t) _______ 40.32 (9) 

    _ 11 ___ 19.0__ 19 __ ---- ____dancerwithwings (6)_1.07 (22) 

    _ 12 ___ 19.5__t23__ 16 __ February1978 _______ 1.18 (27t) ______ 45.52 (t21)

    _ 13 ___ 20.0__ 20 __ ---- _____ Summer Sun (6) ___1.12 (24t) 

    _ 14 ___ 20.5__ 30 __ 11 __ Relativistic (6) ________1.05 (20t) ______ 39.72 (8)

    _ 15 ___ 21.0__ 21 __ ---- ____ Mark Bayley (5) _____0.90 (8t) 

    _ 16 ___ 21.5__ 18 __ 25 __ Leo97t (6) ___________ 1.12 (24t) ______54.72 (43)  

    _t17 ___ 22.0__ 37 __ 07 __ Bobd24 (6) __________ 1.23 (33) ______43.12 (14) 

    _t17 ___ 22.0__ 07 __ 37 __ BornFromTheVoid (6) __1.02 (17) _______47.85 (27) 

    _t19 ___ 22.5__ 12 __ 33 __ MrMaunder (6) _______0.98 (15t) _____ 48.75 (30)

    _t19 ____22.5__ 27 __ 18 __ Mulzy (6) ____________ 1.05 (20t) ______45.02 (16)

    _ 21 ____23.0__ 11 __ 35 __ DR(S)NO (6) _________ 0.97 (13t) ______49.42 (31) 

    _t22 ___ 24.0__ 17 __ 31 __ SteveB (6) ____________0.97 (13t) ______49.68 (32)

    _t22 ____24.0__ 39 __ 09 __ Godber 1 (6) ________ 1.28 (36t) ______42.25 (13)  

    _ 24 ____24.5__t03 __ 46 __ Stargazer (6) ________ 0.80 (7) ________57.08 (49)  

    _t25 ___ 25.0__t03 __ 47 __ weather-history (6) __ 0.77 (5) _______ 54.02 (40)

    _t25 ___ 25.0 __21A__ 29 __ coldest winter (3) ___ 0.67 (2A) ______ 20.67 (0 A) 

    _t27 ___ 26.0__ 08 __ 44 __ Summer18 (6) ________0.95 (10t) _____ 51.08 (36) 

    _t27 ___ 26.0__ 26 __ 26 __ EdStone (General Cluster) (6) _1.32 (38) ______46.25 (23) 

    _t29 ___ 26.5__ 02 __ 51 __ timmytour (6) ________ 0.75 (3t) _______57.92 (50) 

    _t29 ___ 26.5__ 51 __ 02 __ snowray (6) __________ 1.58 (49) _______36.18 (2) 

    _ 31 ___ 28.0__ 35 __ 21 __ J10 (6) ________________ 1.20 (29t) _____ 47.50 (25) 

    _t32 ___ 28.5__t23__ 34 __ Summer Blizzard (6) __ 1.08 (23) ______ 48.35 (29)   

    _t32 ___ 28.5__ 09 __ 48 __ 2010 cold (4) __________ 0.64 (1) _______ 44.23 (15)  

    _t34 ___ 29.0__ 50 __ 08 __ The PIT (6) ____________1.43 (42t) _____ 45.22 (18) 

    _t34 ___ 29.0__ 36 __ 22 __ Frigid (5) ______________ 1.26 (34t) ____ 40.54 (10) 

    _ 36 ___ 30.0__ 47 __ 13 __ Blast from the Past (6) _1.22 (32) _____ 45.25 (19) 

    _ 37 ___ 31.0__ 31 __ ---- ____ Man Without Beard (6)_1.18 (27t) 

    _ 38 ___ 32.0__ 60 __ 04 __ virtualsphere (6) _______2.27 (61) _____ 40.98 (11) 

    _ 39 ___ 32.5__ 29 __ 36 __ stewfox (6) ____________ 1.37 (40) ______55.22 (45) 

    _ 40 ___ 33.0__ 43 __ 23 __ Norrance (5) __________ 1.26 (34t) ______52.56 (39)

    _ 41 ___ 34.0__t23 __ 45 __ pegg24 (5) ____________0.98 (15t) _____ 50.40 (35)  

    _ 42 ___ 34.5__ 49 __ 20 ___ Jeff C (6) _____________ 1.47 (47) ______ 45.08 (17) 

    _ 43 ___ 35.0__ 38 __ 32 __ sundog (5) ____________ 1.40 (41) _______54.68 (42)

    _ 44 ___ 35.5__ 57 __ 14 __ Midlands Ice Age (6) __ 1.98 (58) _______41.38 (12) 

    _ 45 ___ 36.0__ 32 __ 40 __ shillitocettwo (6) ______1.83 (53t) _______51.32 (37)  

    _ 46 ___ 37.0__ 55 __ 19 __ seaside60 (6) _________ 1.68 (51) ________45.52 (t21) 

    _ 47 ___ 37.5__ 33 __ 42 __ Weather26 (6) ________ 1.28 (36t) ______ 50.32 (34) 

    _ 48 ___ 38.0__ 52 __ 24 __ Stationary Front (6) ___ 1.90 (55t) _______47.08 (26)  

    _ 49 ___ 38.5__ 34 __ 43 __ I Rem Atl 252 (6) ______1.20 (29t) ________55.98 (46)

    _ 50 ___ 39.0__ 48 __ 30 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (6) _ 1.70 (52) _______ 54.48 (41) 

    _t51 ___ 40.5__ 53 __ 28 __ jonboy (6) _____________ 1.65 (50) _______46.68 (24) 

    _t51 ___ 40.5__ 40 __ 41 __ syed2878 (6) ___________1.43 (42t) ______52.38 (38) 

    _t53 ___ 41.0 __ 41 __ ---- ____ Typhoon John (6) ____ 1.33 (39) 

    _t53 ___ 41.0__ 41A__ ---- ___ Froze were the days (3)_0.90 (08A) 

    _ 55 ___ 42.0__ 46 __ 38 __ DiagonalRedLine (6) ___ 1.50 (47) ______ 56.55 (47) 

    _ 56 ___ 42.5__ 58 __ 27 __ emmett garland (6) ____ 1.93 (57) ______ 48.02 (28)

    _ 57 ___ 44.0 __ 44 __ ---- ________ Kentish Man (6) __ 1.53 (48)

    _ 58 ___ 45.0__ 45 __ ---- ____ Duncan McAlister (6)__1.83 (53t) 

    _ 59 ___ 46.5__ 50A__ 43 __ moffat (3) ______________1.27 (37A) _____ 37.03 (9)

    _ 60 ___ 47.0__ 42 __ 52 __ daniel* (6) _____________1.43 (42t) ______ 56.85 (48) 

    _ 61 ___ 47.5__ 56 __ 39 __ Walsall Wood Snow (6) _2.00 (59) _______49.70 (33) 

    _ 62 ___ 50.0__ 31A _ 69 __ B87 (3) ________________ 1.03 (18A) ______77.70 (61C) 

    _ 63 ___ 52.0__ 54 __ 50 __ Earthshine (5) __________ 1.46 (46) _______ 54.94 (44) 

    _ 64 ___ 54.5__ 45A__ 64 __ CheesepuffScott (3) ____1.07 (22A) ______55.17 (45A)

    _ 65 ___ 55.5__ 52A__ 59 __ Joneseye (3) ____________1.07 (22A) ______34.53 (0 B)

    _ 66 ___ 57.0__ 57A__ 57 __ Dog Toffee (3) __________1.60 (53A) ______ 56.90 (49A) 

    _t67 ___ 58.5__  61 __ 56 __ Neil N (6) _______________ 2.12 (60) _______ 59.00 (54)  

    _t67 ___ 58.5__ 62B__ 55 __ Sleety (3) _______________4.23 (62C) _____44.37 (16A) 

    _t67 ___ 58.5__ 59 __ 58 __ Let It Snow! (4) __________1.90 (55t) _____  61.70 (52) 

    _ 70 ___ 59.0__ 62A__ 56 __ booferking (3) __________2.77 (62B) _____ 52.90 (40A)

    _t71 ___ 61.5__ 62A__61 __ DAVID SNOW (3) ________2.23 (62A) _____ 52.23 (38A) 

    _t71 ___ 61.5__ 61A__ 62 __ moorlander (3) _________1.63 (54A) _____ 71.03 (61B) 

    _ 73 ___ 64.5__ 45A__84 __ prolongedSnowLover (3) 1.07 (22A) _____70.70 (61A) 

    _ 74 ___ 67.0__ 58A _ 76 __ Weather Enthusiast91 (2) __ 1.60 (51A) _____ 54.15 (41A) 

    _ 75 ___ 68.5__ 62 __ 67 __ Lettucing Gutted (5,4) ___ 6.14 (62) _____ 203.53 (53)

    ==========================================================

    The rankings are cut off after 3 entries, except for 2 entries and an entry in May.

    Those with one or two entries in either or both contests can see their rankings in the excel files for the contests. 

    CET-only entrants are shown at their CET ranks, names italic and indented. 

    ==========================================================

    CET rankings are for the 62 who have entered 4-6 contests. Last month (April) there were 72 at 3-5, ten of those

    have dropped down into non-ranked territory. In this table, a forecaster with 2 or 3 entries is given an equivalent

    CET rank from total points, at the position that they would have with those points, and the rank has a letter to indicate

    both that fact and relative position if more than one occupy a space between official ranks. Therefore "31A" would mean

    enough points to be 31st, first of those, 31B would mean same but second of those. This is also applied to the rankings

    for average CET error. In the EWP contest, there is no difference in ranking methods so your rank is whatever you have

    attained, but for average error the same cutoff is used (four of six required) and the ranks of others with 2-3 forecasts

    are handled the same way as the CET equivalent rankings. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    EWP final figure is in, 122.5 mm -- changes no scoring for anyone except that shillitocettwo moves into a tie for 25th (from 26th) and gets 0.19 more points, not enough to change annual ranking of 40th although within .01 now of 39th. Everyone else would see no change from the already available scoring on the excel file. 

    This means we went from 10th driest April (now adjusted to 13.6 mm in tables) to 7th wettest May (just ahead of 122.4 mm 1924 in 8th -- the six years with a wetter May were 1773 (151.8), 1782 (142.4), 1967 (140.7), 1932 (129.6), 1843 (129.1) and 1886 (123.1). 

    The CET values of those six, plus 8th place 1924, were 10.3 (1773), 9.0 (1782), 10.4 (1967), 10.5 (1932), 10.4 (1843), 10.3 (1886), and 11.6 (1924). 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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