May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[snowray]

With only 5 days to I can’t see it going up that much, nights are still looking quite chilly and no widespread max temps into the low 20s looking likely either. We should see 0.1c rises but I’m not expecting any 0.2c days. It would seem to me that we could end up at maybe 10c or even 9.9c after corrections.

[Roger J Smith]

At the moment the 14.3 C on 31 March is still 1.5 higher than any daily mean in April-May. As Relativistic was pointing out, this is unusual and I found that only one year (1957) had managed to preserve its March max as the spring max, but 1777 (second place currently at "within 1.1") preserved its mark to the 28th of May, so even if we don't match 1957, I thought possibly this might be the second longest run for any March max as spring max. However, I checked that out by changing my program filter to determine 1 Mar to 28 May maxima and found this more precise comparison: 

 

YEARS WITH SMALLEST GAINS IN SPRING CET MAX from MARCH to 28, 29, 30 and 31 MAY

(table in the order of gains to 28 May) 

(values in brackets for 29-31 May do not exceed a previous max)

(2021 edited in using provisional data, to be adjusted when final values known)

 

YEAR _____ March max ___ Apr-May max __ 1 Apr -28 May max __ -29 May _ -30 May _ (31 May)

1957 ______ 13.4 ___________ 12.8 ________ 12.8 (4 Apr, 11 May) (-0.6) _ (10.7) __ (10.8) ____ (12.5)

1777 ______ 14.8 ___________ 15.9 __________ 15.4 (24 May) (+0.6) __ (14.0 ) _ 15.9 (diff +1.1) _ 31st (15.1) 2nd at end.

1813 ______ 13.4 ___________ 17.2 ___________14.5 (7 May) (+1.1) __ (16.5) __ 17.0 (diff +3.6) _ fell out of final list on 29th

1805 ______ 11.5 ___________ 15.1 __________ 12.7 (22 May) (+1.2) __ (12.2) __ 15.1 (diff +3.6) _ fell out of final list on 30th

1899 ______ 11.6 ___________ 13.2 __________ 12.8 (18 May) (+1.2) __ (10.9) __ (11.7) __ (13.2) _ went from 3rd on 30th to t5 at end.

1815 ______ 13.8 ___________ 15.1 __________ 15.1 (28 May) (+1.3) __ (14.4) __ (13.4) __ (13.9) _ went from 5th on 28th to 3rd at end.

2021 ______ 14.3 ___________ 14.0 (to 28th) _ 13.2 (28 May) (-1.1) __15.7 (+1.4) _ (13.9) _ (13.9)_fell from 1st on 28th to 4th on 29th

(rest of the previous table from previous post as no warm days near end of May impacted on the results, except 1899 which is also in the table above now)

(rankings mentioned here refer to end of May differentials)

 

Third place in this odd contest goes to 1815 (13.8 on 31 Mar) which was eventually beaten by 1.3 C by 15.1 C on 28 May. This one lasted to 11 May when it was 14.6. 

Fourth place belongs to 1923 at 1.5 C  -- 13.5 on 27 March followed by 15.0 on 3rd and 4th May. 

Fifth is a tie between 1899 and 1938 at 1.6 C. -- 1899 was running 1.2 from only 11.6 in March until 31 May raised it to 1.6; and 1938 rode the warmth of 30 Mar (13.1) through a cool April to the warmest spring day, 14.7 C on 14 May.

Seventh is more recent -- 2004 at 1.7 C. -- 13.2 on 16 Mar, 14.9 on 19 May. Unlike most this one also had a warmer day in April (13.7 25th).

Eighth was 1819 at 2.1 C. -- 12.0 on the 31st Mar was eventually topped by 14.1 on 3 May. 

(the all-data average for this stat was 6.1 C, in other words, on average April or May improves on the March daily max mean by 6.1 deg. 

 

======================================================================

so there were two sudden late May warmups hiding two other years (1805, 1813) that stayed in the hunt to 28 May to 29 May, and other years had slight changes in their rankings, but the table otherwise is the same as the one I derived from all data in May.  

Edited June 1, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Speculation where we might end up

27th 9.8 degrees

28th 9.9 degrees

30th 10.0 degrees

31st 10.1 degrees

Might see a 0.2 degree rise on 31st, so absolute top finish 10.2 degrees. Then a question of any downward corrections, perhaps safest to say 50/50 chance of a finish of 9.9 degrees or 10.0 degrees. There is a chance with a marked correction we could drop to 9.8 degrees, and may be even 9.7 degrees. A cold May.

[LetItSnow!]

without wanting to go off topic; at least the first week to ten days of June are looking warm, so it makes me wonder what the largest increases in temperature from May to June is in the C.E.T. would be interesting to see. can't imagine there have been many sub-10 Mays preceding 15+ Junes etc.

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

At the moment the 14.3 C on 31 March is still 1.5 higher than any daily mean in April-May. As Relativistic was pointing out, this is unusual and I found that only one year (1957) had managed to preserve its March max as the spring max, but 1777 (second place currently at "within 1.1") preserved its mark to the 28th of May, so even if we don't match 1957, I thought possibly this might be the second longest run for any March max as spring max. However, I checked that out by changing my program filter to determine 1 Mar to 28 May maxima and found this more precise comparison: 

 

YEARS WITH SMALLEST GAINS IN SPRING CET MAX from MARCH to 28, 29, 30 and 31 MAY

(table in the order of gains to 28 May) 

(values in brackets for 29-31 May do not exceed a previous max)

 

YEAR _____ March max ___ Apr-May max __ 1 Apr -28 May max __ -29 May _ -30 May _ (31 May)

1957 ______ 13.4 ___________ 12.8 __________ 12.8 (4 Apr, 11 May) _ (10.7) __ (10.8) ____ (12.5)

1777 ______ 14.8 ___________ 15.9 __________ 15.4 (24 May) (+0.6) __ (14.0 ) _ 15.9 (diff +1.1) _ 31st (15.1) 2nd at end.

1813 ______ 13.4 ___________ 17.2 ___________14.5 (7 May) (+1.1) __ (16.5) __ 17.0 (diff +3.6) _ fell out of final list on 29th

1805 ______ 11.5 ___________ 15.1 __________ 12.7 (22 May) (+1.2) __ (12.2) __ 15.1 (diff +3.6) _ fell out of final list on 30th

1899 ______ 11.6 ___________ 13.2 __________ 12.8 (18 May) (+1.2) __ ( 8.5) __ (10.9) __ (11.7) __ (13.2) _ went from 3rd on 30th to t5 at end.

1815 ______ 13.8 ___________ 15.1 __________ 15.1 (28 May) (+1.3) __ (14.4) __ (13.4) __ (13.9) _ went from 5th on 28th to 3rd at end.

(rest of the previous table from previous post as no warm days near end of May impacted on the results, except 1899 which is also in the table above now)

(rankings mentioned here refer to end of May differentials)

 

Third place in this odd contest goes to 1815 (13.8 on 31 Mar) which was eventually beaten by 1.3 C by 15.1 C on 28 May. This one lasted to 11 May when it was 14.6. 

__ (note 1815 in second place on 27 May)

Fourth place belongs to 1923 at 1.5 C  -- 13.5 on 27 March followed by 15.0 on 3rd and 4th May. 

Fifth is a tie between 1899 and 1938 at 1.6 C. -- 1899 was running 1.2 from only 11.6 in March until 31 May raised it to 1.6; and 1938 rode the warmth of 30 Mar (13.1) through a cool April to the warmest spring day, 14.7 C on 14 May.

Seventh is more recent -- 2004 at 1.7 C. -- 13.2 on 16 Mar, 14.9 on 19 May. Unlike most this one also had a warmer day in April (13.7 25th).

Eighth was 1819 at 2.1 C. -- 12.0 on the 31st Mar was eventually topped by 14.1 on 3 May. 

(the all-data average for this stat was 6.1 C, in other words, on average April or May improves on the March daily max mean by 6.1 deg. 

 

======================================================================

so there were two sudden late May warmups hiding two other years (1805, 1813) that stayed in the hunt to 28 May to 29 May, and other years had slight changes in their rankings, but the table otherwise is the same as the one I derived from all data in May.  

 

[damianslaw]

Probably not many sub 10 degree May's followed by 15 plus degree June's. 1996 brought a 5 degree plus difference, 14.4 June, a big difference. Suspect 2005 and 2007 also near 5 degree differences.

Edited May 27, 2021 by damianslaw

[LetItSnow!]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Probably not many sub 10 degree May's followed by 15 plus degree June's. 1996 brought a 5 degree plus difference, 14.4 June, a big difference. Suspect 2005 and 2007 also near 5 degree differences.

2005 11.4 - 15.5 +4.1

2007 11.9 - 15.1 +3.2

AVG  11.9 - 14.7 +2.8

 

2007 wasn't a pronounced increase compared to what you'd expect, but 2005 def. was. If you meant 2006 then the increase was +3.6 which is a little higher than average.

Compare that to 2008 which was just a +0.5 difference!

Edited May 27, 2021 by LetItSnow!

[Roger J Smith]

Part of the answer is in my post on 21st in this thread detailing what happened after 20 wettest Mays (by the way already closing in on 9th with a bit more to be added, possibly finishing in the range of 3rd to 6th wettest. Almost all of those were cool Mays and none of them (except 2006 which wasn't cool in May) reached 15.0 although 1782, a very cold and wet May, did get to 14.9 which given the date seems close enough to 15. 

But in considering all the other Mays that weren't as wet as the list, the largest increases May to June are as follows: 

YEAR __ MAY __ JUNE __ incr

1676 ___10.5 ___18.0 ___ 7.5

1817 ___ 8.7 ___ 15.1 ___ 6.4

1755 ___ 9.4 ___ 15.7 ___ 6.3

1826 ___11.2 ___17.3 ___ 6.1

1877 ___ 9.1 ___ 15.2 ___ 6.1

1772 ___10.1 ___16.1 ___ 6.0

1858 ___10.8 ___16.8 ___ 6.0

1741 ___ 9.3 ___ 15.2 ___ 5.9

1782 ___ 9.0 ___ 14.9 ___ 5.9

1846 ___12.3 ___18.2 ___ 5.9

1887 ___ 9.4 ___ 15.3 ___ 5.9

1899 ___ 9.9 ___ 15.7 ___ 5.8

1941 ___ 9.4 ___ 15.1 ___ 5.7

1751 ___ 9.3 ___ 14.9 ___ 5.6

1837 ___ 9.9 ___ 15.5 ___ 5.6 

1693 ___ 9.0 ___ 14.5 ___ 5.5

1866 ___10.0 ___15.5 ___ 5.5

1810 ___ 9.2 ___ 14.6 ___ 5.4

1845 ___ 9.5 ___ 14.9 ___ 5.4

1850 ___10.1 ___15.4 ___ 5.3

1996 ___ 9.1 ___ 14.4 ___ 5.3

1891 ___ 9.5 ___ 14.7 ___ 5.2

1935 ___ 9.9 ___ 15.1 ___ 5.2

1736 ___10.6 ___15.7 ___ 5.1

1818 ___11.3 ___16.4 ___ 5.1

1897 ___10.0 ___15.1 ___ 5.1

1667 ___10.0 ___ 15.0___ 5.0

1707 ___11.0 ___16.0 ___ 5.0

1885 ___ 8.9 ___ 13.9 ___ 5.0

1902 ___ 8.9 ___ 13.9 ___ 5.0

1968 ___ 9.8 ___ 14.8 ___ 5.0

==========================================

Since almost all of these are way back, I could add that a few relatively recent cases were near misses such as 1976 (12.1 to 17.0). Since 1996 the largest increase May to June has been only 4.5 (2010, 10.7 to 15.2). 

Edited May 28, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Not many Junes have been colder than preceding Mays, this is the entire list (two!) so small in fact that I added some cases of the smallest increases to make this the "top 17" of smallest increases May to June: 

YEAR __ MAY __ JUN __ diff 

1833 __ 15.1 __ 14.6 __ --0.5

1749 __ 12.3 __ 11.9 __ --0.4

1823 __ 12.2 __ 12.3 __ +0.1 

1784 __ 13.5 __ 13.7 __ +0.2 

1841 __ 12.7 __ 12.9 __ +0.2

1916 __ 11.6 __ 11.8 __ +0.2

1918 __ 13.0 __ 13.3 __ +0.3

1862 __ 12.3 __ 12.7 __ +0.4

1964 __ 13.3 __ 13.8 __ +0.5

2008 __ 13.4 __ 13.9 __ +0.5

1809 __ 13.1 __ 13.7 __ +0.6

1848 __ 13.9 __ 14.5 __ +0.6

1830 __ 12.0 __ 12.7 __ +0.7

1860 __ 11.5 __ 12.3 __ +0.8

1909 __ 11.0 __ 11.8 __ +0.8

1919 __ 13.5 __ 14.3 __ +0.8

1971 __ 11.8 __ 12.6 __ +0.8

=====================================

Probably not much chance of seeing 2021 in this list, if so we would have the coldest June on record. 

[Weather-history]

Differences in rainfall between two consecutive months

April 2021: 13.8mm

May 2021: ~121mm  about 107mm difference

In 2007, April/May difference was about 108mm 

 

The difference between September and October 1865 was an incredible 158.9mm

September 1865: 9.5mm

October 1865: 168.4mm

and September 1865 followed an August that recorded 126.0mm

That's pretty remarkable, an extremely dry month sandwiched between two very months.

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.4C -2.2C below average, Rainfall unchanged.

Using the latest local forecast puts on 10.1C as a final figure.  -1.9C below average. The coldest since 1996.  Rainfall the wettest since 2014. The 3rd wettest on record. Following on from the 2nd driest , April on record.

Spring is now at 112.8% of average rainfall.

Edited May 28, 2021 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

EWP almost done now, 121 mm to 26th, rather small amounts around the country on 27th probably won't add much (maybe 1 mm) then left over small amounts from what has been a 10-20 mm soaker in Ireland just reaching a few parts of Wales and Cumbria to add perhaps 3 mm by end of the month. 

June EWP clues are coming in, 30-40 mm advertised in first week and days 11-16 also looking unsettled. Driers beware. 

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 27th

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
1.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 27th
Current low this month 6.6c on the 1st

[Scorcher]

I think some may be surprised by how warm these last few days of the month end up being.

I heard talk about cool nights in here- last night was warm here with the cloud cover which should boost the CET somewhat- I imagine today will be easily the warmest 24 hours of the month so far.

[DAVID SNOW]

A notably cool may is certain, in fact the coolest for 25 years!

Some may be surprise at that fact.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.5C -2.2C below average, Rainfall 129.1mm 216.6% of the monthly average.

It's not been that warm the running five day average is 10.6C here and the average for the period is around 11.5C.

Using the local forecast temperatures the final value looks now to be 10C. -2C below average.

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 28th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.9c on the 28th
Current low this month 6.6c on the 1st

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

A notably cool may is certain, in fact the coolest for 25 years!

Some may be surprise at that fact.

*surprised

Why would that be a surprise to anyone? We've only had 30 odd days to get used to it.

[Roger J Smith]

Just edited in the provisional data showing that 2021 now holds second place as of 28 May in that "March max domination of spring max" contest, while yesterday was set at 14.0, 31 March was 14.3 and therefore we still have not (provisionally) set a new spring max yet. Only 1957 (which lasted to 1st of June) had a larger deficit (0.6 from 13.4 in March vs 12.8 in Apr and May). If no day exceeds 15.3 we will hold on to this second place outcome to the end. 1777 is currently second with a surplus of only 1.1 C by end of month (28th value for 1777 was -0.3, they had just seen on 24th May the first day warmer than 27 March which had hit 14.8, formerly the all-time March record before 30 March 2017 went higher). So whatever happens now, this is the second longest run ever for the March max as spring max (and would be so even if this provisional becomes higher, since 1777 dropped out on 24th). 

(update _ final value of 13.2 on 28th meant that 2021 was still in first place on 28th, and final value of 15.7 on 29th means that 2021 dropped to fourth place just behind 1815 in third place, with a surplus of only 1.4 C over the March max). 

Edited June 1, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Thundery wintry showers]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I think some may be surprised by how warm these last few days of the month end up being.

I heard talk about cool nights in here- last night was warm here with the cloud cover which should boost the CET somewhat- I imagine today will be easily the warmest 24 hours of the month so far.

Yes I was thinking that, the University of Lincoln weather station had it at 12C min last night and 21C so far today, which suggests an outcome of around 17C (and Lincoln tends to be quite similar to the CET zone in the summer half-year).  The GFS in particular often underestimates the temperatures.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a final provisional result of 10.3-10.4C, falling to 10.1-10.2C after corrections.

[Don]

Very much on a knife edge whether we just about scrape sub 10C.

[reef]

5 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Yes I was thinking that, the University of Lincoln weather station had it at 12C min last night and 21C so far today, which suggests an outcome of around 17C (and Lincoln tends to be quite similar to the CET zone in the summer half-year).  The GFS in particular often underestimates the temperatures.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a final provisional result of 10.3-10.4C, falling to 10.1-10.2C after corrections.

I'm surprised at that, it's quite a bit warmer than here, we're less than 50 miles away and had a min temp of 6.8C!

[Roger J Smith]

This is a re-do of an earlier post which was in reverse chronological order, now it's by rank, to place

2021 in context for April-May outcomes. 2021 outcomes that tie are shown for any values 9.6 to 10.4.

If that column has a value in brackets, 2021 would need to finish a lot colder than it appears possible to tie.

Values above 10.4 are also in brackets for now.

The most likely outcomes are probably 9.9 to 10.2. 

(update _ final value was 10.1 _ table now reflects this fact)

 

Coldest April-May combined CET values

 

rank __ YEAR ____ APR _ MAY __ avg ___ 2021 needed this to tie

_ 1 ___ 1782 ____ 5.2 __ 9.0 ___ 7.10 ______ (7.8)

_ 2 ___ 1695 ____ 5.5 __ 9.0 ___ 7.25 ______ (8.1)

_t3 ___ 1837 ____ 4.7 __ 9.9 ___ 7.30 ______ (8.2)

_t3 ___ 1879 ____ 5.7 __ 8.9 ___ 7.30 ______ (8.2)

_t5 ___ 1740 ____ 6.4 __ 8.6 ___ 7.50 ______ (8.6)

_t5 ___ 1799 ____ 5.4 __ 9.6 ___ 7.50 ______ (8.6)

_ 7 ___ 1770 ____ 5.4 __10.0___ 7.70 ______ (9.0)

_ 8 ___ 1693 ____ 6.5 __ 9.0 ___ 7.75 ______ (9.1)

_t9 ___ 1701 ____ 4.7 __10.9___ 7.80 ______ (9.2)

_t9 ___ 1887 ____ 6.2 __ 9.4 ___ 7.80 ______ (9.2) 

_11 __ 1891 ____ 6.2 __ 9.5 ___ 7.85 ______ (9.3)

_t12 __1756 ____ 6.7 __ 9.1 ___ 7.90 _______(9.4)

_t12 __1941 ____ 6.4 __ 9.4 ___ 7.90 ______ (9.4)

 

_ 14 __ 1855 ____ 7.1 __ 8.8 __ 7.95 ______ (9.5) 

_t15 __1688 ____ 5.5 __10.5___ 8.00 ______ 9.6

_t15 __1696 ____ 5.5 __10.5___ 8.00 ______ 9.6

 

_t15 __1698 ____ 7.5 __ 8.5 ___ 8.00 ______ 9.6

_t15 __1713 ____ 5.5 __10.5___8.00 _______ 9.6

_19 __ 1877 ____ 7.0 __ 9.1 ___ 8.05 _______ 9.7

_____ __ __ (no years to tie if 2021 finished 9.8)

_20 __ 1817 ____ 7.6 __ 8.7 ___ 8.15 _______ 9.9

_t21__ 1699 ____ 6.4 __10.0___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1702 ____ 5.8 __10.6___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1741 ____ 7.1 __ 9.3 ___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1751 ____ 7.1 __ 9.3 ___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1812 ____ 5.5 __10.9___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1902 ____ 7.5 __ 8.9 ___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t27 __1691 ____ 6.5 __10.0___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1692 ____ 7.5 __ 9.0 ___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1694 ____ 7.5 __ 9.0 ___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1772 ____ 6.4 __10.1___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1816 ____ 6.6 __ 9.9 ___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

-- 2021 _________ 6.4 __ 10.1 __ 8.25 _____

(all entries below now add one to rank shown)

_t32 __1838 ____ 6.1 __10.5___ 8.30 _____ 10.2 (now t33)

_t32 __1839 ____ 6.4 __10.2___ 8.30 _____ 10.2 (now t33)

_t32 __1885 ____ 7.7 ___ 8.9 __ 8.30 _____ 10.2 (now t33)

_35 __ 1748 ____ 6.3 __10.4___ 8.35 _____ 10.3 (now 36th)

_36 __ 1923 ____ 7.6 ___ 9.2 __ 8.40 _____ 10.4 (now 37th)

_t37 __1888 ____ 6.2 __10.7 __ 8.45 _____(10.5) (now t38th)

_t37 __1951 ____ 6.8 __10.1___ 8.45 _____(10.5)

_t37 __1986 ____ 5.8 __11.1___ 8.45 _____(10.5)

_ t 40 __1665, 1667 _ 7.0 __10.0 ___8.50 ____ (10.6) (now t41st)

_t40 __1680 ____ 6.5 __10.5 ___8.50 ____ (10.6)

_t43 __1983 ____ 6.8 __10.3 ___8.55 ____ (10.7) (now t44th)

(these are unranked recent cases, 2021 moved past them)

1996 _____8.5 ___ 9.1 __ 8.80 ___ ---- _______(11.2)

2013 ____ 7.5 __ 10.4 __ 8.95 ___ ---- ________(11.5)

1984 ____ 8.1 ___ 9.9 __ 9.00 ___ ---- ________(11.6)

======================================================

Anything colder than 10.0 will place 2021 second coldest (to 1941) in the period 1891 to present,

10.0 will tie with 1902 as second coldest since 1891

10.1 to 10.4 will rank third coldest since 1891 (it would be tied third with 1923 at 10.4).

Edited June 1, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

This is a re-do of an earlier post which was in reverse chronological order, now it's by rank, to place

2021 in context for April-May outcomes. 2021 outcomes that tie are shown for any values 9.6 to 10.4.

If that column has a value in brackets, 2021 would need to finish a lot colder than it appears possible to tie.

Values above 10.4 are also in brackets for now.

The most likely outcomes are probably 9.9 to 10.2. 

 

Coldest April-May combined CET values

 

rank __ YEAR ____ APR _ MAY __ avg ___ 2021 ties with

_ 1 ___ 1782 ____ 5.2 __ 9.0 ___ 7.10 ______ (7.8)

_ 2 ___ 1695 ____ 5.5 __ 9.0 ___ 7.25 ______ (8.1)

_t3 ___ 1837 ____ 4.7 __ 9.9 ___ 7.30 ______ (8.2)

_t3 ___ 1879 ____ 5.7 __ 8.9 ___ 7.30 ______ (8.2)

_t5 ___ 1740 ____ 6.4 __ 8.6 ___ 7.50 ______ (8.6)

_t5 ___ 1799 ____ 5.4 __ 9.6 ___ 7.50 ______ (8.6)

_ 7 ___ 1770 ____ 5.4 __10.0___ 7.70 ______ (9.0)

_ 8 ___ 1693 ____ 6.5 __ 9.0 ___ 7.75 ______ (9.1)

_t9 ___ 1701 ____ 4.7 __10.9___ 7.80 ______ (9.2)

_t9 ___ 1887 ____ 6.2 __ 9.4 ___ 7.80 ______ (9.2) 

_11 __ 1891 ____ 6.2 __ 9.5 ___ 7.85 ______ (9.3)

_t12 __1756 ____ 6.7 __ 9.1 ___ 7.90 _______(9.4)

_t12 __1941 ____ 6.4 __ 9.4 ___ 7.90 ______ (9.4)

 

_ 14 __ 1855 ____ 7.1 __ 8.8 __ 7.95 ______ (9.5) 

_t15 __1688 ____ 5.5 __10.5___ 8.00 ______ 9.6

_t15 __1696 ____ 5.5 __10.5___ 8.00 ______ 9.6

 

_t15 __1698 ____ 7.5 __ 8.5 ___ 8.00 ______ 9.6

_t15 __1713 ____ 5.5 __10.5___8.00 _______ 9.6

_19 __ 1877 ____ 7.0 __ 9.1 ___ 8.05 _______ 9.7

_____ __ __ (no years to tie if 2021 finishes 9.8)

_20 __ 1817 ____ 7.6 __ 8.7 ___ 8.15 _______ 9.9

_t21__ 1699 ____ 6.4 __10.0___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1702 ____ 5.8 __10.6___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1741 ____ 7.1 __ 9.3 ___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1751 ____ 7.1 __ 9.3 ___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1812 ____ 5.5 __10.9___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t21__ 1902 ____ 7.5 __ 8.9 ___ 8.20 _____ 10.0

_t27 __1691 ____ 6.5 __10.0___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1692 ____ 7.5 __ 9.0 ___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1694 ____ 7.5 __ 9.0 ___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1772 ____ 6.4 __10.1___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t27 __1816 ____ 6.6 __ 9.9 ___ 8.25 _____ 10.1

_t32 __1838 ____ 6.1 __10.5___ 8.30 _____ 10.2

_t32 __1839 ____ 6.4 __10.2___ 8.30 _____ 10.2

_t32 __1885 ____ 7.7 ___ 8.9 __ 8.30 _____ 10.2

_35 __ 1748 ____ 6.3 __10.4___ 8.35 _____ 10.3

_36 __ 1923 ____ 7.6 ___ 9.2 __ 8.40 _____ 10.4

_t37 __1888 ____ 6.2 __10.7 __ 8.45 _____(10.5)

_t37 __1951 ____ 6.8 __10.1___ 8.45 _____(10.5)

_t37 __1986 ____ 5.8 __11.1___ 8.45 _____(10.5)

_ t 40 __1665, 1667 _ 7.0 __10.0 ___8.50 ____ (10.6)

_t40 __1680 ____ 6.5 __10.5 ___8.50 ____ (10.6)

_t43 __1983 ____ 6.8 __10.3 ___8.55 ____ (10.7)

(these are unranked recent cases, 2021 should move past them)

1996 _____8.5 ___ 9.1 __ 8.80 ___ ---- _______(11.2)

2013 ____ 7.5 __ 10.4 __ 8.95 ___ ---- ________(11.5)

1984 ____ 8.1 ___ 9.9 __ 9.00 ___ ---- ________(11.6)

======================================================

Anything colder than 10.0 will place 2021 second coldest (to 1941) in the period 1891 to present,

10.0 will tie with 1902 as second coldest since 1891

10.1 to 10.4 will rank third coldest since 1891 (it would be tied third with 1923 at 10.4).

Thanks good chance may beat 1983 cold April-May combo but not 1986. 

 

[Scorcher]

15 hours ago, reef said:

I'm surprised at that, it's quite a bit warmer than here, we're less than 50 miles away and had a min temp of 6.8C!

Stonyhurst (one of the CET stations) had a min around 12C I believe - the west was cloudier on Friday night I think which kept the temps higher- perhaps the far east of the country was clearer with cloud just a few miles inland.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP edged up to 122 mm and that is likely the end of the climb as nothing much reported yesterday, and zero predicted for the grid next 36h (from 12z).

No report here yet on CET but I see it went up to 10.1 after 29 days with a 16.1 provisionally for 29th. Will add a full report in Summer Sun style later if he doesn't post it by midnight. 

As a result of that, 2021 fell from 2nd to 8th in the "least increase in spring max" table and I edited that post to show the new data.