May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[NeilN]

12.3c and 66mm please. 

[sundog]

11.1 and 90 mm for me please. 

[Derecho]

I'll go for 10.6C, I think the first week is likely to come in -2.5C to -3.0C below the 1961-90 average so it may struggle to recover.

[Timmytour]

I expect May will finish a few points above 10C, but its remarkable how - in the 20th century - a May with a mean CET of less than 10C used to come along once every decade, but no more than once every decade! Normally these infrequent occurences usually turn up - when they do -  with some clustering associated with them.
 

1902   8.9C

1923   9.2C

1935  9.9C

1941  9.4C

1955  9.7C

1968  9.8C

1975  9.9C

1984  9.9C

1996  9.1C

Only  the "onesies"  missed out last century as they did again this century.  But the "noughties" also missed out this year giving us the longest wait for a sub-10C May we've had since the start of the 20th Century.  That said we did have a wait of 22 years near the start of the 20th, so perhaps we are due one this year to end a 25 year drought?

I'll be gutted I didn't change my guess if that's what happens!!!  And though before 1900 they came along on a far more regular basis, it's worth remembering that exactly 300 years ago we got a sub 10C May which was the first one of the 18th century.......

 

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Timmytour
removed unintended graphic!

[Mr Maunder]

After the total disaster that was my April forecast.......

For May I will go for 11.3c and 82 mm.

 

MM

 

[Frigid]

Changing my forecast to 10.8c and 95mm rain. 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Frigid

[Norrance]

I will go for 11.5C and 75 mms.

[damianslaw]

A mixed month, a cold start, possibly notably so, a gradual warm up, then alternating warmer and cooler spells, nothing long lasting or exceptional warmth wise. A near average 11.1 degrees. 

[Kentish Man]

10.3C thanksd

[snowray]

On 27/04/2021 at 19:23, snowray said:

10.9c and 64mm please.

Can I up my rainfall to 86mm please. Thanks.

[Daniel*]

10.3C and 96mm think cold and wet at least first half.

[seaside 60]

I will have a competition with myself to see if I can get further away from last months figures. 

Lets go for bust...

12.4c
79mm

[noname_weather]

10.7C and 84mm.

April went truly terrible for me. Hard to believe we can obtain a 35 years cold month record.

 

[mulzy]

11.2C and 83mm please

[Man With Beard]

12.3. Got a feeling a sudden warm up is on the cards.

[Derecho]

An interesting side note is that all time UK temperature record for May is -9.4C, there is a chance that somewhere in Scotland could beat that this week.

Think anyone going above average is taking a risk given how cold this first week is looking!

Edited April 30, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

An interesting side note is that all time UK temperature record for May is -9.4C, there is a chance that somewhere in Scotland could beat that this week.

Think anyone going above average is taking a risk given how cold this first week is looking!

Definitely a risk.

[Godber 1]

9.6c and 87mm please.

[February1978]

11.2c & 81mm, thanks.

Despite April, still can't commit to a significantly cold month!

[Thundery wintry showers]

10.8C and 87.4mm.

[Midlands Ice Age]

11.5C and a very needed 79mms of rain please!.

MIA

 

[davehsug]

10.9C & 109mm please.

[J10]

12.0c and 75mm

Can't do any worse than April (famous last words)

[Don]

After recent months, I haven't a scooby!  However, I need to go for something, so lets say 11.4C and 101mm please.  A rather cold/wet first half, followed by a warmer second half albeit possibly unsettled.

Edited April 30, 2021 by Don

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, February1978 said:

11.2c & 81mm, thanks.

Despite April, still can't commit to a significantly cold month!

I have similar feeling, been caught out many a time in past going below..  but I think the odds of a below average May are quite high this year unfortunately. I love May, my favourite month, but I'm not feeling the goods this year... all has shades of 2012 and 2013.. general cooler period of 2008-2013.. 2012 produced a wonderful 10 day spellend of month after a dire first two thirds, indeed best spell of the year for sustained warmth and dry sunny weather.. not saying a summer 2012 is on the cards. Much rather have a May 2013 if exchanged for a July 2013.

Edited April 30, 2021 by damianslaw