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Spring and Summer: any relationships?


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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Hello all,

    So it's that time of year where people start to wonder what the summer will bring, will it be the 'BBQ Summer' the tabloids promise every year, or will it be that cool and dreary summer people lament for months after!

    I've always found the discussion around Spring weather and it's relationship with Summer an interesting one. No matter what you say there will be years which back up a theory and ones which don't. For example, after the years 2007, 2008 and 2011 in particular, I used to think 'warm Spring weather = poor Summer'. However since then the likes of 2014, 2017 and 2018 have blown that theory out of the water so I no longer know what to think!

    Given the cause and effect nature of our planet though, I do think there is one. And I'd love to hear what fellow weather enthusiasts think about this topic.

    Is it impossible for warm weather producing synoptics to stay for more than a few weeks? Or does Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover have some sort of bearing?

    All in all, we deserve at least an 'average' Summer!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Spring isn't really a 'season' in my opinion, its just the motion of two main seasons Summer and Winter blended together as they slaughter it out with each day passing losing a little of Winter and gaining a little of Summer. 

    I have a feeling this summer is going to be either one of worst ones or best ones on record, somehow it wont fall average. Also I hope there is no hot spell in late May or early June as hot spells during this period always seem to be cursed and a poor summer will follow.

    Edited by 38.7°C
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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

    Probably nonsense. But i find warm Aprils tend ruin summers.. I like how its been cold and clear so far this spring.. Hopefully if the Jet stream does start up. its more active but is not aimed at us but further north than  we have seen in last 2 summers. 

    So meaning we are on the right side for good weather. Not expecting a great summer they are rare. But i decent summer would be nice. 

    Anyhow Winter did feel cold,, and so far spring has followed suit. only means it can only get warmer?  fingers crossed 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The anecdotal recent sampling for April especially somewhat supports your claim but across the records as a whole and taking March and May into account there is almost no statistical basis to support the idea.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    A selection of years with warm springs at Heathrow. There doesn't seem to be any correlation there. 1995 and 2003 both had great summers, 2007 and 2011 had awful summers. 2014 and 2019 had decent summers, 2017 and 2020 had their moments but were rather poor.

    134003325_Heathrow2014.thumb.png.b7e97e3cf66ca57187f40f96766f2276.png

    914493927_Heathrow2011.thumb.png.5ac90ec0bc941903b493c065427b0e51.png

    96210158_Heathrow2007.thumb.png.22feb7a193a81b3f7f841a055c039121.png

    558847982_Heathrow2003.thumb.png.7ef172039450e87611bf8577b2e4dcfe.png

    1022993495_Heathrow2020.thumb.png.a2f1b31d265228065c1e73aeb45bca6f.png

    790207899_Heathrow2019.thumb.png.e69cd1e71f418537c7874ab726df0d08.png

    Heathrow 1995.png

    Heathrow 2017.png

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    from memory 1983 was a poor wet spring followed by a glorious summer

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    Some years with poor springs and the resulting summer.

    1986: very poor, though acceptable June

    1989: excellent, 2nd only to 1976 in number of 25c+ days

    1991: incredibly terrible June, improving as the summer progressed

    1994: hot July

    1998: awful June and July, sunny August

    2001: decent summer with a sunny July

    2006: excellent summer, hottest July on record

    2012: awful June/July, average August

    2013: very sunny and hot July

    2016: see 1991

    2018: excellent summer, easily the best since 1995

    They all seem to have at least average or good 2nd halves, even if the early stages of the summer are terrible (excluding 1986).

     

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    • 1 month later...
    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Interesting stats and comments, a belated thank you! Since starting this topic we've of course had a cold and wet May and are now entering a warm week of weather as Meteorological summer begins.

    So it seems there isn't a real pattern probably because there are too many factors at play. One thing may determine how a season plays out, but there are also other things going on which can either override it or not.

    It may not be the most exciting finding to say 'we don't know' but seeing previous examples in a way makes me feel better as it means there's no need to write off a season before it begins. I imagine as the years tick by we may start to see faint patterns emerge, but even then it will not be certain. That's what I enjoy about weather in a way, the fact we don't know with nature always having a trick up her sleeve!

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    On 15/04/2021 at 16:06, B87 said:

    Some years with poor springs and the resulting summer.

    1986: very poor, though acceptable June

    1989: excellent, 2nd only to 1976 in number of 25c+ days

    1991: incredibly terrible June, improving as the summer progressed

    1994: hot July

    1998: awful June and July, sunny August

    2001: decent summer with a sunny July

    2006: excellent summer, hottest July on record

    2012: awful June/July, average August

    2013: very sunny and hot July

    2016: see 1991

    2018: excellent summer, easily the best since 1995

    They all seem to have at least average or good 2nd halves, even if the early stages of the summer are terrible (excluding 1986).

     

    I would class 1994 as a good summer, but started off cold with a poor May, and cool first half of June. Mid June until late July was either consistently warm or hot and sunny. A very good period for thunderstorms also in the London region. 
     

    2001 was poor from my memory. May was warm and sunny, and I think June was decent. It went downhill in July and august was damp and wet.

    Think we had a severe thunderstorm on a midweek day, maybe a Wednesday evening? Am I right?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    I would class 1994 as a good summer, but started off cold with a poor May, and cool first half of June. Mid June until late July was either consistently warm or hot and sunny. A very good period for thunderstorms also in the London region. 
     

    2001 was poor from my memory. May was warm and sunny, and I think June was decent. It went downhill in July and august was damp and wet.

    Think we had a severe thunderstorm on a midweek day, maybe a Wednesday evening? Am I right?

    Seem to remember a 10 day period of warm/hot sunny weather at the end of July / start of August 2001. Of course there was also the warm humid first week too with the notable 3rd-4th thunderstorms. The August Bank Holiday was also hot and sunny. 

    Overall I think a very episodic summer - just a shame the less good weather was well and truly poor. Mid July was borderline autumnal and there were some days around the 08th-12th August that were really shut in and wet.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, MP-R said:

    Seem to remember a 10 day period of warm/hot sunny weather at the end of July / start of August 2001. Of course there was also the warm humid first week too with the notable 3rd-4th thunderstorms. The August Bank Holiday was also hot and sunny. 

    Overall I think a very episodic summer - just a shame the less good weather was well and truly poor. Mid July was borderline autumnal and there were some days around the 08th-12th August that were really shut in and wet.

    I remember now, the warm late bank holiday, but the summer as a whole seem to feature lots of dull wet days. That’s always poor in my book.

    It was however, better when compared to summer 2002, which was consistently dull, following the lovely sunny and warm April. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    59 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    I remember now, the warm late bank holiday, but the summer as a whole seem to feature lots of dull wet days. That’s always poor in my book.

    It was however, better when compared to summer 2002, which was consistently dull, following the lovely sunny and warm April. 

    I think most summers have been better than 2002 lol, although August wasn’t too bad, here in the West Country at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    No synergies but perhaps a more blocked spring with northerlies and easterlies may portend to a less westerly summer.. 1995, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2018 all spring to mind in this regard. A sign atmosphere in a more abnormal state.

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