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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    9 minutes ago, rory o gorman said:

    Once the green snot of death kicks in often the whole summer is a write off.  OG members on here remember 07-12 with months of April showers and cold temperatures in mid Summer.  

    This summer won’t be as bad as last year. I’m almost certain. Background signals are miles better. There’s no reason for a washout summer. Equally no signal for a heatwave summer. Something average IMO, with periods of both. 

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    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    GEM is showing something turning up next week that could potentially be an imported thunderstorm.

    image.thumb.png.6b840aabaf7d073cf76f0f751cde31c5.png

    image.thumb.png.c6538d29182c5740df647d4af3600200.png

    image.thumb.png.b1ef7266ca660675219fce6577b621fa.png

    image.thumb.png.768c0db10936268a01c1fa1af56779f2.png

    image.thumb.png.d62fb05b2fe029c8898ec8a0d8767fac.png

    GFS showing something similar but a bit earlier.

    image.thumb.png.f180283ff716e22ec74f297b89d3ba4f.png

    image.thumb.png.53f38f64639ca252d824d0e9314de1f3.png

    image.thumb.png.cb722d270f4e0e4342261c64650e9306.png

    image.thumb.png.e2a286f0efa8aa5d868d57c28ff26178.png

    Still a while out but closer than opportunities have been as of lately and within 150 hours.

    BBC Weather hinting at something as well so we can safely say it won't be happening lol.

    image.thumb.png.09ea910999b2aa2409f1ae2e5e494738.pngimage.thumb.png.42bf70fc0920775ee53bf48ae7901c62.pngimage.thumb.png.30f128a69b84167112f7094b77571698.png

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Leiston
  • Location: Leiston
    14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    GEM is showing something turning up next week that could potentially be an imported thunderstorm.

    image.thumb.png.6b840aabaf7d073cf76f0f751cde31c5.png

    image.thumb.png.c6538d29182c5740df647d4af3600200.png

    image.thumb.png.b1ef7266ca660675219fce6577b621fa.png

    image.thumb.png.768c0db10936268a01c1fa1af56779f2.png

    image.thumb.png.d62fb05b2fe029c8898ec8a0d8767fac.png

    GFS showing something similar but a bit earlier.

    image.thumb.png.f180283ff716e22ec74f297b89d3ba4f.png

    image.thumb.png.53f38f64639ca252d824d0e9314de1f3.png

    image.thumb.png.cb722d270f4e0e4342261c64650e9306.png

    image.thumb.png.e2a286f0efa8aa5d868d57c28ff26178.png

    Still a while out but closer than opportunities have been as of lately and within 150 hours.

    BBC Weather hinting at something as well so we can safely say it won't be happening lol.

    image.thumb.png.09ea910999b2aa2409f1ae2e5e494738.pngimage.thumb.png.42bf70fc0920775ee53bf48ae7901c62.pngimage.thumb.png.30f128a69b84167112f7094b77571698.png

    Those CAPE and LI charts as always look strikingly similar to recent times with it all staying over France.

    I do hope as things draw closer we get in on the game, several days of very warm/hot temps and high humidity going out with nothing has become an unwelcome pattern over recent years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    It might be fair to say that our current warm and sunny spell is about to end? But how cool will it be? I still don't trust those 2m temps; they always seem to end up being underestimates, by a degree or so?🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png     prcpBedfordshire.png

     

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The ECM, although becoming unsettled, is nowhere near the GFS horror show.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    The ECM, although becoming unsettled, is nowhere near the GFS horror show.

    Agreed, there’s plenty of summery weather further s / se well into the ECM 12z op run and Sunday is a peach nationwide in terms of 850’s (uppers)..not often will you see a chart like this! 😉 ☀️ 🥵 😯...I’m gonna frame this chart and hang it on the wall.... 🤔...not really! 😉 

    4F65E92C-EDB8-4F59-8E33-AE40B4E92040.thumb.png.264f869b5ca9f792b06dc9a67826e14c.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    12z GFS was disturbing but then again 1st July to 15th July 2003 

    AVN_1_2003071500_1.png

    AVN_1_2003070800_1.png

    1 july 2003.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    I've moved to 'moany' posts with no model discussion over to the moans thread. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Ouch, and the two posts following the above were exactly the same. and have gone the same way..

    If it's not about the models, then please don't use this thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking 👀 at tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean, the short term looks very summery, especially further south by southeast which continues into early next week whereas the NW becomes cooler and more unsettled...and eventually temperatures fall back closer to average for everyone although I’m sensing something of a typical n / s - nw / se split? 🤔...broad brushstrokes.

    C1E07494-CC3D-422E-B021-76B661C14211.thumb.gif.31f7cebc0fa927ea134afebe45b23ba8.gifA7C05325-1252-4156-8287-3947B2F1FAB5.thumb.gif.307479b99b9502033a3984213bb2cff9.gifBA8E2477-9811-4F4D-8747-A665437CFE47.thumb.gif.298a72ab9be34ef42d678987b56d86c6.gifB3356170-1AD0-458F-B145-26DA700A79B7.thumb.gif.7aff93d3f3fa33c45240589c428e6e66.gif1A0A73A7-15CA-4E31-8DFE-C5C7A66A8A99.thumb.gif.9a6400cc683469db5b6892a8a04af4b9.gifF8511027-A11A-47D4-895B-6208E32E439E.thumb.gif.c9101bcd29bd72637924079ee8135f20.gifE89E4DA7-2187-4EAE-A3DA-0ADCA6157850.thumb.gif.9d271bb193c4a2413ec83698d952966f.gif

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 hours ago, Alderc said:

    Being a little more positive after a maybe cooler than expected Saturday (Manchester mid to high teens for example) Arpege does crank up the warmth in the south Sunday and Monday with potentially up to 31C

    2mtemp_20210610_12_052.thumb.jpg.917ebe184f3d81c243c264a14bf684f9.jpg

    2mtemp_20210610_12_075.thumb.jpg.c3f8ddc5661f37839ab9ab073de902a3.jpg

    2mtemp_20210610_12_099.thumb.jpg.d8c4f57345c2b4f1d69f48dfb7b13608.jpg

    People talking about green **** look where the only patch of green is on the map for Sunday - here in the Lake District, want to see a NW-SE divide in its full glory see the above maps!

    Anyhow, certainly a warm up in the immediate, the core of warmth reserved for the SE quarter of the UK where a few spots might reach the magic 30 degree mark as we see warm uppers invade. 

    Into the new week a cooling and more unsettled trend as we lose the ridge and replace with more of an atlantic trough pattern, but its not certain whether the trough will linger to the west keeping more eastern parts in warmer air, and allowing the azores high to ridge back NE again as it lifts in situ, or it exerts more influence encroaching further eastwards, bringing a showery and cloudy westerly airmass. All very typical summer UK fayre!

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    Week 2 1/2 Ec46

    image.thumb.png.c517644d2baae7ffc1bfa58f9e156f8c.png
     

    Week 3 1/2

    image.thumb.png.a796f97d09337ff09ea56ac6b374e203.png

    Every EC46 run since the 24th of May has progged high U.K. heights for this period so it’s been a really consistent forecast. Plenty of hurdles to cross in the meantime but a settled early July looks really promising...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS18z continues its recent trend of developing a low over England around day 10.

    GFSOPEU18_240_4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    GFS18z continues its recent trend of developing a low over England around day 10.

    GFSOPEU18_240_4.png

    .....and here it is again on the 00z:

    image.thumb.png.768896f6f1349ebe76463f3991e6da74.png

    and also the GEM in a slightly different form:

    image.thumb.png.c6b258962668b00139555b6ab8905678.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The gem nuance reminds us that we can’t take the behaviour of next weeks upper trough for granted. still much to play for re how far east and south the upper trough digs and hence if we drive a plume ahead of the unsettled spell (which could be just a day or two or sig longer).   It’s a very fluid outlook on the nwp 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    9 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    GFS joins the UKMO in pushing the heat back across much of England next Wednesday. Will the ECM follow?

    Well pointed out. Another hot day possible in many areas.

    UKMO 850s - hot in the SE:
    image.thumb.png.fb00c6138e61c21c183ab9b4f82ae844.png

    GEM temps for Wednesday:

     image.thumb.png.726971f3bdddec73b41d5b9ef187d1ca.png 

    GFS temps for Wednesday:

    image.thumb.png.e4d70bae2b14b7e4b9c682b787a681a2.png

    Colour schemes slightly different, but both showing 29c.

    GEM even has heat for Thursday in the SE corner:

    image.thumb.png.33a5db97c6d5ccde6d6e9b259867221d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Well pointed out. Another hot day possible in many areas.

    UKMO 850s - hot in the SE:
    image.thumb.png.fb00c6138e61c21c183ab9b4f82ae844.png

    GEM temps for Wednesday:

     image.thumb.png.726971f3bdddec73b41d5b9ef187d1ca.png 

    GFS temps for Wednesday:

    image.thumb.png.e4d70bae2b14b7e4b9c682b787a681a2.png

    Colour schemes slightly different, but both showing 29c.

    GEM even has heat for Thursday in the SE corner:

    image.thumb.png.33a5db97c6d5ccde6d6e9b259867221d.png

    even those high temps on Wednesday of 29c are really only the for the more SE quadrant not that the picture for the rest of England is cool by any means , well until you get into NW parts that is

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    37 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    GFS joins the UKMO in pushing the heat back across much of England next Wednesday. Will the ECM follow?

    Yep.

    ECM0_120igc0.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Yep.

    ECM0_120igc0.GIF

    image.thumb.png.d1f13b10ceb51777a2890d2d8a9467b6.png

    Predicted maxes around 26-27c, so a couple of degrees down on GFS and GEM. As things are becoming more mobile by then, timings of how long the warmer air holds on will be key for how much warmth can build.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.d1f13b10ceb51777a2890d2d8a9467b6.png

    Predicted maxes around 26-27c, so a couple of degrees down on GFS and GEM. As things are becoming more mobile by then, timings of how long the warmer air holds on will be key for how much warmth can build.

    That looks poor given the upper air profile in the early hours of the day, even when adding on the usual 2-3 degrees that models are often too low by at this time of year. It must have a lot of cloud cover. A cold front pushing south east through the day and bringing cloud and (of course) colder air, I guess.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Apart from one or two heavy, thundery downpours, I can't see much to moan about; we are in the UK, and sunshine & showers are pretty-much par-for-the-course. That said, I guess I'm biased, I enjoy the verdant growth associated with such weather. So long as it's not cold!🤔

    GFS 00Z:    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                        h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                        h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And those T850s don't look cold to me. But, as for those predicted 2m temps:😁

                        t850Bedfordshire.png  t2mBedfordshire.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    1661890262_ukprec(57).thumb.png.d41e75334b2ebbfdfe35f33b079c21dc.png2089557746_ukprec(56).thumb.png.ba5f3362a15885dddbc588005e81c3aa.png853309811_ukcapeli(27).thumb.png.e7b9487d59b19210938b820bbe978d70.png983234763_ukprec(58).thumb.png.bb02548ef0fc4e133f61f2ca2a857b36.png466766433_ukprec(59).thumb.png.f897eb56b6d5bd678b30430245e18ddd.png

    Netweather GFS backing a possible Kent Clipper lightning probably won't survive the channel and most of it'll probably be further south than Kent and on the near continent however recent runs have pushed it further forward so if that can continue then I would start to get pretty excited if it stays on the Models till the day. 

    108349017_gfseuw-2-126(3).thumb.png.36c29d1f35b19a463ec40c5fc09593a8.png1449854049_gfseuw-2-132(3).thumb.png.61f76bd5dbed5e9f98c5bd0edb387ac4.png1619191526_gfseuw-11-132(2).thumb.png.0250a4126fdc99f26334baad1eec5ef6.png

    416891756_gfseuw-2-138(4).thumb.png.2f80a467a6b27f87ece4c51f3b1e8d83.png

    1468540857_gfseuw-11-138(6).thumb.png.2eb60c7398e84f2ca96980b593d36832.png

    1727629879_gfseuw-2-144(3).thumb.png.ee09a2a91cd178ab23aee427760b6a26.png

    Annoying that the CAPE doesn't seem to be in the right places I suppose you could say but certainly had a typical import movement for those in the SE great but still nothing for places that are sometimes hit in London not so great, a combination of the Netweather CAPE and the Meteociel movement would be the best out of the Models that I've looked at so far. 

    gemeuw-2-126.thumb.png.0f6035ad345935fc18e00725cbad00e2.png

    gemeuw-2-132.thumb.png.db8df69e196f552fa209d8ea16c0a529.pnggemeuw-11-132.thumb.png.0b12f52cf3c39887800de5c7d606863a.pnggemeuw-2-138.thumb.png.8cb750f64cd1aa7f561c43c2e12ca158.pnggemeuw-11-138.thumb.png.f4576685285e8b5451a838b348a7e9c3.pnggemeuw-2-144.thumb.png.f77bc7a15da0dd54b9d5ddf90a607faf.png

    Gem is much messier and unpredictable so here's my short breakdown of it, showers breaking ahead of the front of rain across the channel and in France moving NE with one strong one breaking out in France with the higher CAPE and pushing up through the channel into London and the SE. 

    GEM then goes out on its own giving two bands of rain to hit England, one spinning from Eastern France, the lowland countries and Germany and the other coming up from central France into central and Western England around the 20th/21st but I don't trust the GEM at this point. 

    gemeuw-11-204.thumb.png.6376fb072447ae379e31fea7384a2197.png

    gemeuw-11-228.thumb.png.bb2975a270d29820422bcb02eae3f167.png

    Sorry I didn't write more lost some of it with 2 minutes left till school so this is as much as I could do

     

    gfseuw-11-138 (6).png

    gfseuw-11-138 (6).png

    gemeuw-11-162.png

    gemeuw-2-150.png

    gemeuw-11-162.png

    Edit sorry about all the extra models at the end can't do anything about them. 

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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