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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I guess you might call the 06Z temperature ensembles 'so-so' . . . maybe yes, maybe no!🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    12z GFS coming out now with details of its breakdown. 

    At day 4 we see a dead cold front moving through bringing cool air. 

    GFSOPEU12_96_4.png

    At day 6 we see the second low move through with low pressure in full control from this point.

    GFSOPEU12_144_4.png

    By day 10 most heat lovers are on the valium as the 12z does its best 07/12 impression. 

    GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    12z GFS coming out now with details of its breakdown. 

    At day 4 we see a dead cold front moving through bringing cool air. 

    GFSOPEU12_96_4.png

    At day 6 we see the second low move through with low pressure in full control from this point.

    GFSOPEU12_144_4.png

    By day 10 most heat lovers are on the valium as the 12z does its best 07/12 impression. 

    GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

     

    Luckily, not to get too technical, I’m a green snot fan 😉..that bottom Gfs 12z op chart would generally speaking translate to warm sunny spells (because the sun is warm in June)..DUH!.. 🤔  and heavy, perhaps thundery showers..nae bad 👍 ⛈ ☀️ 😉 

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Luckily, not to get too technical, I’m a green snot fan 😉..that bottom Gfs 12z op chart would translate to warm sunny spells and heavy, perhaps thundery showers..nae bad 👍 ⛈ ☀️ 😉 

    Not bad?? Its utter P💩💩P for this point in summer time and under that it will feel very like October!  Once again, every inch of Europe swelters in the FOURTH consecutive hot summer in a row we once again get sandwiched and glued between two high pressures one east and one west.  Not bad ayy? .   Really do hate living in this country. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Luckily, not to get too technical, I’m a green snot fan 😉..that bottom Gfs 12z op chart would generally speaking translate to warm sunny spells (because the sun is warm in June)..DUH!.. 🤔  and heavy, perhaps thundery showers..nae bad 👍 ⛈ ☀️ 😉 

    Will feel pretty grim in all that cloud, and not all that summery. Guess June sun will burn off most of the cloud by, say, 8pm....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Luckily, not to get too technical, I’m a green snot fan 😉..that bottom Gfs 12z op chart would generally speaking translate to warm sunny spells (because the sun is warm in June)..DUH!.. 🤔  and heavy, perhaps thundery showers..nae bad 👍 ⛈ ☀️ 😉 

    I like your posts nomally, but this one is just plain misleading.

    It's one of the worst runs you can get for summer.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Not bad?? Its utter P💩💩P for this point in summer time and under that it will feel very like October!  Once again, every inch of Europe swelters in the FOURTH consecutive hot summer in a row we once again get sandwiched and glued between two high pressures one east and one west.  Not bad ayy? .   Really do hate living in this country. 

    Yes my sentiments exactly. One good thing though is that all those people who have moved to Cornwall during the June stamp duty holiday will be in for a shock! 

    July is where are hopes should be focused now, might scrape something very backend of June.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, DCee said:

    Yes my sentiments exactly. One good thing though is that all those people who have moved to Cornwall during the June stamp duty holiday will be in for a shock! 

    July is where are hopes should be focused now, might scrape something very backend of June.

    Not with that pattern you won't.

    However, it's so bad, it won't turn out like that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS 12Z at least delays things enough to squeeze out a warmish Tuesday in the south, after that it starts going downhill pretty quickly, troughing anchored near or over the UK for the rest of the run. GFS being annoyingly consistent with this trend. 

    Wow, look at me being all level-headed.....

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    25 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Luckily, not to get too technical, I’m a green snot fan 😉..that bottom Gfs 12z op chart would generally speaking translate to warm sunny spells (because the sun is warm in June)..DUH!.. 🤔  and heavy, perhaps thundery showers..nae bad 👍 ⛈ ☀️ 😉 

    Not sure I’d call a deep low pinned over the uk in mid June ‘nae bad’! It’s about as bad as it gets in mid summer.

    ECM 00z day 10 below is what you’d call not bad. Not high pressure, but a westerly flow and average. Low pressure stuck over the top of the uk in summer just leads to washouts. Like a fair few summer months 04-12 accomplished.

    image.thumb.png.60e8ac86103ae080b27d46ab6b7508ef.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Not with that pattern you won't.

    However, it's so bad, it won't turn out like that.

    Fingers and toes crossed...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Stunning GEM at T240, high pressure to east, west and some weak northerly blocking starting to show. Low pressure again pinned to UK. Would expect the ensembles to start showing an extended spell of below to notably 850s......

    GEMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.77be1217b4f3d812ba90b3d937f4a85c.png 

    Mmm yummy

    GEMOPEU12_240_4.thumb.png.214e09946986d8919e86921883404ba3.png

    What an absolute disaster!

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    You do have to say though - nowhere else in the world is as unlucky as we are with weather. Literally everything that can go wrong has gone wrong to get from our current pattern to what the GFS is showing. This is why I don't think it will be as bad as that - the odds must be so small.

    Sadly, the anomalies look like they were way off the mark this time, which is a shame as they are usually pretty good - if it turns out like GFS is showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Just now, Alderc said:

    Stunning GEM at T240, high pressure to east, west and some weak northerly blocking starting to show. Low pressure again pinned to UK. Would expect the ensembles to start showing an extended spell of below to notably 850s......

    GEMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.77be1217b4f3d812ba90b3d937f4a85c.png 

    Beat me to it. GFS blows up a lot of northern blocking too.

    image.thumb.png.638f071681fda89f0a0ee1eb1d21be38.png

     Long way back to anything warm and settled from a chart like that. See what ECM holds later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    Stunning GEM at T240, high pressure to east, west and some weak northerly blocking starting to show. Low pressure again pinned to UK. Would expect the ensembles to start showing an extended spell of below to notably 850s......

    GEMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.77be1217b4f3d812ba90b3d937f4a85c.png 

    I can put a positive spin on this though. It's a D10 chart and lots of high pressure around. Any corrections will be favourable!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Wow, at least I’ve sparked some model conversation..it worked! 😉...in the meantime, enjoy the sunny surge of June heat ☀️ 🥵🤓

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    I can put a positive spin on this though. It's a D10 chart and lots of high pressure around. Any corrections will be favourable!

    True - the problem with a lot of bad UK summers is that there is loads of high pressure around.....surrounding the UK while we get pinned under a trough. I’m hopeful the second half of June will just be 2-3 weeks of not so good weather before it improves again into July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    21 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I like your posts nomally, but this one is just plain misleading.

    It's one of the worst runs you can get for summer.

    Hi DJ, thanks for that, but I was only talking about one chart at day 10 that someone else posted....not the run generally as I haven’t even looked at it yet! 😉..I may not bother now... 🤔 🙃

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    You do have to say though - nowhere else in the world is as unlucky as we are with weather. Literally everything that can go wrong has gone wrong to get from our current pattern to what the GFS is showing. This is why I don't think it will be as bad as that - the odds must be so small.

    Sadly, the anomalies look like they were way off the mark this time, which is a shame as they are usually pretty good - if it turns out like GFS is showing.

    My eldest daughter is still only 3, that means I likely have at least 15years until I can emigrate somewhere warmer, thats assuming we are not in the midst of COVID-34 the Alpha Centauri strain. I love the UK, its my home but the climate absolutely sucks beyond belief. 

    The anomalies only indicated a slight regression of high pressure however credit where credit is due GFS has again picked the pattern and pretty much stuck with now for 3 or 4 days. Yes the pattern can change but it needs to showing now as from the charts for Monday/Tuesday its very difficult to see how we dont get boxed in under a trough. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Being a little more positive after a maybe cooler than expected Saturday (Manchester mid to high teens for example) Arpege does crank up the warmth in the south Sunday and Monday with potentially up to 31C

    2mtemp_20210610_12_052.thumb.jpg.917ebe184f3d81c243c264a14bf684f9.jpg

    2mtemp_20210610_12_075.thumb.jpg.c3f8ddc5661f37839ab9ab073de902a3.jpg

    2mtemp_20210610_12_099.thumb.jpg.d8c4f57345c2b4f1d69f48dfb7b13608.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Day 5, according to the GFS 12Z, is horrendous!🤣

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Day 10 is, especially should you loathe sunshine and showers, even worse!😲

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And Day 15? How could it possibly be worse!😱

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Sorry folks, but I don't control the GFS any more than the GFS controls the weather!👍🏻

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
    5 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

    Tbh with all the warmth we have had in the south east and the heat to come before mid next week I wouldn’t mind a week or so of unsettled weather, garden could do with it 

    Once the green snot of death kicks in often the whole summer is a write off.  OG members on here remember 07-12 with months of April showers and cold temperatures in mid Summer.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    As expected, a pretty universal opinion from the GFS ensembles beyond the middle of next week, hardly any scatter. 

    275157286_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n(22).thumb.jpeg.4e6d203438167aed28b820242b1aa862.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Hi DJ, thanks for that, but I was only talking about one chart at day 10 that someone else posted....not the run generally as I haven’t even looked at it yet! 😉..I may not bother now... 🤔 🙃

    I think it was your comment that it "wasn't a bad chart" that raised a few eyebrows. I love your positivity, but that was stretching it!

    Anyway, let's not fall out over it - nothing wrong with a bit of lively discussion eh! 😊

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    • Thundery breakdown underway but still some last minute sunshine and warmth this weekend

      The heatwave is over, with the breakdown getting underway in southern England first this weekend. Further north and west there'll still be plenty of very warm sunshine on offer, before the weather becomes much less settled countrywide next week. Read the full update here

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