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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    it has to be said that the anomalies are still sliding slowly towards a more unsettled spell.. sadly ...

     

    610day.03.gif

    Note the pattern change over the US to a +PNA. Just a few days ago this was a modest -PNA pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Reviewing the models tonight in comparison to the 0z runs, the 12z runs are generally in agreement and generally more unsettled with active lows. Low pressure pushes the high east at day 7 properly and is through at day 8.

    image.thumb.png.fda7f8c1f3d02d935122729c1170f2e4.png
     

    image.thumb.png.dfcdac75cc91b714f6f511be99f48371.png
     

    image.thumb.png.1fdd155b0d9f8a4109be450e30f3d9ad.png

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Looking like a trip back to June 2012 next weekend on GFS. Love how consistent it is with wanting to put a dartboard low right over the country. Wonder how much prec will be dumped. Could there be flooding issues?? 

    npsh500 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UKMO keeps it very warm out until Thursday in the south and east in particular. Colder air tucking into the north on Tuesday and Thursday. Some contrast there though, 850s at -2 in northern Scotland on Tuesday while being up at 13c in the south. By Thursday the colder air is rapidly advancing, which finally brings and end to this warmer spell:

    image.thumb.png.97bd7af02fdf173a468738c533ad9777.pngimage.thumb.png.f14e93548ea318e6aa30e4f213f68b2c.pngimage.thumb.png.15ca1163ac78c01df15b8926f5846755.png

    image.thumb.png.143376b8404d5b38dd4a83140ac473da.pngimage.thumb.png.35acee3824ef807821d57d292cdcae0f.pngimage.thumb.png.e7c69eadee329b46eb1a191eb6e1e0fb.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM keeps things toasty on Monday and Tuesday in the SE. By this point, folks in Scotland, the NW and Western areas may be wondering what the fuss is about as a big drop in temperatures has happened here:

    image.thumb.png.cd178d1720ee29ae3ce8df3833fed631.pngimage.thumb.png.ffa2b26f1555834d62477015c71dbcca.png

    image.thumb.png.b38b7e69359d059300c5c46b87bb5568.pngimage.thumb.png.838bc8007dd953d9bb85fdcc8d8f6324.png

    The last slithers of warmth on Wednesday:
    image.thumb.png.d806b7c839ae9ca514ad5750e1484c5f.png

    Cooler and fresher for all by Thursday:

    image.thumb.png.ac551987d3ceda7319093a9a78027292.png

    A weak ridge of high pressure means the end of the week isn't too bad, a few showers around before it turns more mobile by Sunday:

    image.thumb.png.7738dd1964662bad00f4c7961cefc557.pngimage.thumb.png.ee27f598855d2505dac8fc6fa87e16b2.pngimage.thumb.png.45d89585fcbe6056c32e5301cb7b78b0.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    3 former tropical storms or a system that has been or is close to sustained Tropcal Storm wind speed approach in quick time the 3rd one sparking instability especially in France, this is too far out for now but something to keep an eye on, the details aren't nailed in but if this is still in a good shape (hopefully the CAPE is better positioned on the 3rd one, maybe if the system was further west) by about 100 hours in or so then I would start to get excited. 

    gfs-14-150.thumb.png.3c447804c9e3a8be2a652cb833f2f47e.png

     

    750394258_gfs-14-204(1).thumb.png.df1762386dae21014fca6e18ba55219f.png

    gfs-2-282.thumb.png.99804a92acead0014c735f1a0721ee62.png

    gfseuw-2-306.thumb.png.6765701c49776b68dec552169ff44363.png

    gfseuw-11-306.thumb.png.2fd8754c0b2e7391e652ee1580e5ce7a.png

    gfseuw-2-312.thumb.png.5185ffaacfc353a6fbf1d18a64dd5674.pnggfseuw-2-318.thumb.png.68e6af7c56870f9446e36e5be06537ac.png

    gfseuw-2-324.thumb.png.418c89e345faf91bd326c0fbd278db1f.png

    gfseuw-2-330.thumb.png.6c8a956eb892b6ecb9d7f0d8bb1dfb19.png

    gfseuw-2-336.thumb.png.174ce843cd7b405ae04ead3cc0265b6b.png

    gfseuw-2-342.thumb.png.4660824d57ac76624483cb5923b7e4d2.png

    2003689983_gfseuw-11-348(2).thumb.png.5d212881fc051674e5d281ec7101b8b4.pnggfseuw-2-348.thumb.png.db8737f0f71c37cd0c1d00c5d1b21456.png

    gfseuw-2-354.thumb.png.aa3a64813baa4eb0aaa5cd466154cd20.pnggfseuw-2-360.thumb.png.43dd15070daea91bdd6f575818be8474.png

    Nothing too exciting yet but good to keep an eye on it. 

    Edit

    For some reason there's an extra model or two at the bottom which I don't remember attaching but can't find. 

    gfseuw-2-300.png

    gfseuw-11-330.png

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UKV showing 30-31c London area for Monday. At the same time it could be 9c in the NW of Scotland, which would be a crazy contrast!

    image.thumb.png.08802b89d2ccd2570cf01ffe7ce07485.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    UKV showing 30-31c London area for Monday. At the same time it could be 9c in the NW of Scotland, which would be a crazy contrast!

    image.thumb.png.08802b89d2ccd2570cf01ffe7ce07485.png
     

    Would have thought there would be some active weather around with that sort of contrast.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    30 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    3 former tropical storms or a system that has been or is close to sustained Tropcal Storm wind speed approach in quick time the 3rd one sparking instability especially in France, this is too far out for now but something to keep an eye on, the details aren't nailed in but if this is still in a good shape (hopefully the CAPE is better positioned on the 3rd one, maybe if the system was further west) by about 100 hours in or so then I would start to get excited. 

    gfs-14-150.thumb.png.3c447804c9e3a8be2a652cb833f2f47e.png

     

    750394258_gfs-14-204(1).thumb.png.df1762386dae21014fca6e18ba55219f.png

    gfs-2-282.thumb.png.99804a92acead0014c735f1a0721ee62.png

    gfseuw-2-306.thumb.png.6765701c49776b68dec552169ff44363.png

    gfseuw-11-306.thumb.png.2fd8754c0b2e7391e652ee1580e5ce7a.png

    gfseuw-2-312.thumb.png.5185ffaacfc353a6fbf1d18a64dd5674.pnggfseuw-2-318.thumb.png.68e6af7c56870f9446e36e5be06537ac.png

    gfseuw-2-324.thumb.png.418c89e345faf91bd326c0fbd278db1f.png

    gfseuw-2-330.thumb.png.6c8a956eb892b6ecb9d7f0d8bb1dfb19.png

    gfseuw-2-336.thumb.png.174ce843cd7b405ae04ead3cc0265b6b.png

    gfseuw-2-342.thumb.png.4660824d57ac76624483cb5923b7e4d2.png

    2003689983_gfseuw-11-348(2).thumb.png.5d212881fc051674e5d281ec7101b8b4.pnggfseuw-2-348.thumb.png.db8737f0f71c37cd0c1d00c5d1b21456.png

    gfseuw-2-354.thumb.png.aa3a64813baa4eb0aaa5cd466154cd20.pnggfseuw-2-360.thumb.png.43dd15070daea91bdd6f575818be8474.png

    Nothing too exciting yet but good to keep an eye on it. 

    Edit

    For some reason there's an extra model or two at the bottom which I don't remember attaching but can't find. 

    gfseuw-2-300.png

    gfseuw-11-330.png

    I quite like netweather's previous run 🤣

     1739386634_ukcapeli(24).thumb.png.3ceed0c5b3c4ce6459e10ff854db29d2.png709564170_ukprec(51).thumb.png.4336151b553173ee3125a0316f6eb740.png

    655356325_ukprec(52).thumb.png.7b89e88bf5c59a48ea1b57ad5df9c770.png562945496_ukcapeli(25).thumb.png.258f8393fad3e1499bb4db103aade766.png

    1165877530_ukprec(53).thumb.png.33aa1894e0453e37974ee2ada2e766a6.png646401611_ukprec(54).thumb.png.23429f8f8903a090c8583a71c87b2919.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Would have thought there would be some active weather around with that sort of contrast.....

    image.thumb.png.951b126151ffad4e0ba79e312b108fc2.pngimage.thumb.png.63125fb19114ceec98d268c3e500584e.pngimage.thumb.png.40cb4b7373db2f3a0e3899380ee72545.png

    Cold front going through early on Monday morning, and although by Monday afternoon there are just a few showers knocking around, with cooler air in place and winds gusting up at 40-55mph in this region, it'll probably feel quite unpleasant!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 00Z disnae look too bad:  h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png  🌞

                                                          h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

                                                          h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    And the ensembles likewise  t850Bedfordshire.png     prmslBedfordshire.png

                                                        t2mBedfordshire.png     prcpBedfordshire.png

    So, some good growing weather on the way? But, anywho: one drop of rain, on the window pane, doesn't mean to say there's a thunderstorm coming!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    July precipitation forecast by NOAA

    lead 1-6

    image.thumb.png.6a57cd8936b57ef3ab7fd35647e4209f.pngimage.thumb.png.7faa49abe37a25f8f02764596065a119.pngimage.thumb.png.9bba568033995e91d5b073f1420e1d4d.pngimage.thumb.png.331e28354da6ba9f73bfdcd86d7022c8.pngimage.thumb.png.ab17594ab594a72d6de3f5f2ada8e905.pngimage.thumb.png.e56d1afe2e72e98b40e51d09c1833d45.png

    2M temperature

    Lead 1-6

    image.thumb.png.513bb754a657122f837f49cd77d3881c.pngimage.thumb.png.63b31c404f90eb611f2eacb94f510ed6.pngimage.thumb.png.cb0f000c1e9d2e4452a6510ec82600e7.pngimage.thumb.png.9fc89e4ffeed9c25aedf7ca66cdbc823.pngimage.thumb.png.0ca7817984aef8373e58cd466fa58965.pngimage.thumb.png.d19ad1a13de94cce9d66869405406ac4.png

    Indication that it's going to be hot and dry for most of the year compared to usual good for a good summer but hopefully we see a colder Winter for those snow lovers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Anyone else having trouble with Wetterzentrale not loading all the entire Ensemble suites for GFS - I can only see them out too the 18th one both my PC and phone (although looking at what @Ed Stone has posted above I'm not sure I want to look at them)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.12df724547979553ff8f451acb42db1a.png

    This looks very interesting - though how it can forecast an Iberian low at 13-15 days time I'm not sure!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The way forward for next week is becoming clearer on the clusters

    Fine weather away from the NW until Tuesday. Wednesday is the "cross-over" day with less settled weather spreading to all during the day, though eastern areas could sneak out one more warm/hot day

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021061000_156.

    By Thursday/Friday, all areas loose the ridge and so less settled, although temperatures depend on the degree of disruption of the incoming trough. No clusters back far enough west to encourage a plume to hit the UK 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021061000_192.

    Into next weekend, average conditions in a westerly flow, likely to be within the jet stream, so occasional rain for some though nothing particularly severe.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021061000_240.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Looks similar to the GFS evolution around day 10 mb.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    UKMO keeps it very warm out until Thursday in the south and east in particular. Colder air tucking into the north on Tuesday and Thursday. Some contrast there though, 850s at -2 in northern Scotland on Tuesday while being up at 13c in the south. By Thursday the colder air is rapidly advancing, which finally brings and end to this warmer spell:

    image.thumb.png.97bd7af02fdf173a468738c533ad9777.pngimage.thumb.png.f14e93548ea318e6aa30e4f213f68b2c.pngimage.thumb.png.15ca1163ac78c01df15b8926f5846755.png

    image.thumb.png.143376b8404d5b38dd4a83140ac473da.pngimage.thumb.png.35acee3824ef807821d57d292cdcae0f.pngimage.thumb.png.e7c69eadee329b46eb1a191eb6e1e0fb.png
     

    Wow a big difference in upper air temps! Could fuel some heavy rain in the central part of the country with the conflicting air masses.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

    July precipitation forecast by NOAA

    lead 1-6

    image.thumb.png.6a57cd8936b57ef3ab7fd35647e4209f.pngimage.thumb.png.7faa49abe37a25f8f02764596065a119.pngimage.thumb.png.9bba568033995e91d5b073f1420e1d4d.pngimage.thumb.png.331e28354da6ba9f73bfdcd86d7022c8.pngimage.thumb.png.ab17594ab594a72d6de3f5f2ada8e905.pngimage.thumb.png.e56d1afe2e72e98b40e51d09c1833d45.png

    2M temperature

    Lead 1-6

    image.thumb.png.513bb754a657122f837f49cd77d3881c.pngimage.thumb.png.63b31c404f90eb611f2eacb94f510ed6.pngimage.thumb.png.cb0f000c1e9d2e4452a6510ec82600e7.pngimage.thumb.png.9fc89e4ffeed9c25aedf7ca66cdbc823.pngimage.thumb.png.0ca7817984aef8373e58cd466fa58965.pngimage.thumb.png.d19ad1a13de94cce9d66869405406ac4.png

    Indication that it's going to be hot and dry for most of the year compared to usual good for a good summer but hopefully we see a colder Winter for those snow lovers.

     I doubt very much we are going to have above average temperatures and below average rainfall for six months in a row. I think the model is off on a tangent to be honest.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM keeps things toasty on Monday and Tuesday in the SE. By this point, folks in Scotland, the NW and Western areas may be wondering what the fuss is about as a big drop in temperatures has happened here:

    image.thumb.png.cd178d1720ee29ae3ce8df3833fed631.pngimage.thumb.png.ffa2b26f1555834d62477015c71dbcca.png

    image.thumb.png.b38b7e69359d059300c5c46b87bb5568.pngimage.thumb.png.838bc8007dd953d9bb85fdcc8d8f6324.png

    The last slithers of warmth on Wednesday:
    image.thumb.png.d806b7c839ae9ca514ad5750e1484c5f.png

    Cooler and fresher for all by Thursday:

    image.thumb.png.ac551987d3ceda7319093a9a78027292.png

    A weak ridge of high pressure means the end of the week isn't too bad, a few showers around before it turns more mobile by Sunday:

    image.thumb.png.7738dd1964662bad00f4c7961cefc557.pngimage.thumb.png.ee27f598855d2505dac8fc6fa87e16b2.pngimage.thumb.png.45d89585fcbe6056c32e5301cb7b78b0.png

     

    Surely with my area being right in the middle of where hot air meeting the  cold air there should be some thunderstorms for here...

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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    26 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Surely with my area being right in the middle of where hot air meeting the  cold air there should be some thunderstorms for here...

    Hopefully though it could just be a washout instead.. hopefully not.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z looks okay to me; nae wall-to-wall blistering heat (in Bournemouth!😁) but by no means a washout either!🌞

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    GFS 06Z looks okay to me; nae wall-to-wall blistering heat (in Bournemouth!😁) but by no means a washout either!🌞

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I really don't mean to be disrespectful but do you just copy and paste the same 'GFS XXz looks nae bad' or the like for every run? 

    Again the GFS 06Z post the 19th is cool and pretty wet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I don't want to seem disrespectful either, Chris . . . but why do you always take Day 9/10  charts as gospel?

    So why do you always post them? and then whatever they show say it looks ok.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    So why do you always post them? and then whatever they show say it looks ok.

    Wow, anyway...moving swiftly on, there’s tons of summery weather ☀️ 🥵  right behind us... 🤔..and right in front of us..YAY 😃 .. even in Bournemouth! 😯..until possibly the middle of next week..for some of us ?....we must remember that we are not in the Mediterranean.. 🤔...sometimes the u k has Atlantic weather too..you know, because we are facing the Atlantic..DUH...anyway, the mean indicates more of a N / S ...NW / SE split beyond the current very summery conditions.....better than May at least init! 😉  

     

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