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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted (edited)

    GFS ensembles quickly become poor in the south beyond the 17th, many members 3-5C below average. 

    2145878029_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n19.thumb.jpeg.6de17f66c864299d9ab6a3f8ce65e64b.jpeg

    The next couple of days have been watered down, the heat turned down at weekend and washed away by Tuesday and the longer term outlook starting to sketchy, not been a great trend in the last 24hrs IMO. 
     

    Just noticed ECM has maxes of just 22-23C for Saturday what happened to the 28-29s for Friday and Saturday. Just goes to shown even 5-6daysout how wrong things can still be forecast.

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Fair to say, all models have been really poor at even short range.

    But I still expect temps to be modelled upwards at the weekend as it gets nearer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Fair to say, all models have been really poor at even short range.

    But I still expect temps to be modelled upwards at the weekend as it gets nearer.

    Hope so as currently even Saturday looks cloudy according to them 🙃

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 00Z ensembles don't look too nasty:  t850Bedfordshire.png     prmslBedfordshire.png

                                                                                 t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    Things could be an awful lot worse, IMO:       h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

                                                                                    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Hope so as currently even Saturday looks cloudy according to them 🙃

    image.thumb.png.3abd9bf227e722509e7ac0a110296ca3.png

    Decaying front heading south could be suppressing temps on some models. Depends how much it fragments and breaks I guess.

    ARPEGE 27c - cloud breaking up as the day progresses
    image.thumb.png.9cc0cbe26470d1bc9ad9b38026ea1dc4.pngimage.thumb.png.ea1e18e1daf924b5f197a803f3ce8eee.pngimage.thumb.png.2a12de810160250d2f0948d371ab30f4.pngimage.thumb.png.b533b308ffd34d8d01013772478dfa9e.png

    UKV 25/26c - not too much cloud either
    image.thumb.png.bdbdc1d5518744556804736543deead4.pngimage.thumb.png.d782e89ffb2ca374a1e0481d05de1d83.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

    24 - 27c is really really disappointing?? We live in the UK not the med. To illustrate, Rome is forecast 27c for the next 2 days. The models might have trended away from what they were showing but 24 - 27 is still well above average for the UK.

    Given 24-36hrs ago it was widespread 27-30's opposed to more isolated, lower peaks I think it is disappointing especially for those outside the south east who will back down below average by Monday. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GEM ensembles nowhere near as pessimistic as GFS's. 

    859801479_gem-bournemouth-gb-505n(5).thumb.jpeg.892e16c62b6d507a11539cc2f9051934.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Still a lot to iron out as to where things will be going past the weekend. I wouldn’t look much further beyond Sunday. Still a fair bit of chopping and changing going on as to how far away the warmth will be pushed, if at all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    44 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Given 24-36hrs ago it was widespread 27-30's opposed to more isolated, lower peaks I think it is disappointing especially for those outside the south east who will back down below average by Monday. 

    I'm a cold fan personally (although I enjoy warm weather in summer). I was disappointed by the easterly in February which was watered down and not that cold imo based on what the models had been showing prior to the event. Part of living in the UK i suppose! At least it's warm and sunny and not raining 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    From what I’ve seen it’s still a very warm / hot weekend coming up, the Gfs 0z op shows mid / upper 20’s c and I wouldn’t rule out somewhere across the SE seeing 30c or thereabouts. The ECM 0z op shows the 564 dam line never really leaving the south until beyond T+168 hours which is far better than last evenings 12z...hmmmmmm! 😉...all in all, it’s not bad for early June...unless you don’t like summery weather that is!!!! 😛 ☀️ 🥵 🐿 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    19 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Morning all

    You can see the ECM mean absolutely tank up here from Monday!  
    850hPa temp then ends up at +1 by 18/06 - rubbish stuff for mid June!

    Glasgow:

    E9D5C920-04AD-4FA7-BC8C-46631DD5E502.thumb.png.e423ee9e44d6a88dcd41c6040bd9d4ec.png


    Further South it’s not that bad…until 18/06 - 850hPa temp of +4 on that day.

    Sheffield:

    D6FB1D29-6189-4113-B019-6571D5555955.thumb.png.f65f790f9fef3152a6ec3f86a950088e.png
     

    London a wee bit better for 18/06 with 850hPa temp of +6…this dropping to +5 by 19/06.

    3B23B12E-CB1D-4BC5-B96F-C99EC500E883.thumb.png.bc3e58120306f5d2442eb113d35ed3d7.png

    So a pretty uninspiring week of weather for here next week - temperatures below to near average at times with one or two spells of rain/drizzle and lots of cloud for the most part. 
     You just have to laugh really. 😄

    Further South a return to more widespread average temperatures overall by next Thursday/Friday?

    Plenty of proper Summer weather before any of that - plus at this range no-one really has a clue what will arrive next week!
    All we can do though is discuss what seems more probable from current models/charts/outlooks.

    Sunday/Monday favoured for the highest maximum temperatures! 
    Sunday the best chance of hitting the 30C and putting that old weather enigma to bed once and for all! (Heathrow/Northolt looking good)
    Don’t want to hear anything about dodgy weather stations in those locations if it does happen! 🤣
    Every Summer it’s guaranteed once or twice - give us a break! 😄

    All the best to everyone and enjoy the warmth/heat/sunshine for the most part through the rest of this week and into early next week. (At least)

    Make the most of it for me at least! Some of us don’t have that luxury of Summer weather currently or for the foreseeable.  🤣

    97952C5E-766B-40E6-B1A3-F7F6B2ACC817.thumb.jpeg.72646103748bd38470b28722a2fd8953.jpeg
     

    Cheers! 🍻

    I was up in the Highlands in 1993, Mr. Frost. And that was shee-it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS for Sunday looks okay. To me, at least:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  :drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Tuesday and Wednesday just about seeing a ridge hang on for dear life:

    image.thumb.png.47fcea68e0567c92034abdbb705243b9.pngimage.thumb.png.bd1c9bfe6dd8ddb950be1b5e942d361d.png

    By Thursday some troughing close by looks likely. Impacts/rainfall etc not yet decided:

    image.thumb.png.6b188cb9813fcd288323ff686cdb000a.png

    Anything beyond this well up in the air at the moment.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z at T+ 240 . . . and it's hardly Sheetmageddon!?:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    GFS 06Z at T+ 240 . . . and it's hardly Sheetmageddon!?:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Looks pretty awful to me, low pressure about swing in, cloudy with fronts around.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    LOL Some things never change even in summer...

    Let's talk up all the negatives like temps being 3 or 4 degrees lower than anticipated at the weekend( still very warm but let's not dwell on that).  and how  it looks more unsettled at day 10.

    Does raise a chuckle.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Looks pretty awful to me, low pressure about swing in, cloudy with fronts around.

    Doesn't everything look 'pretty awful' to you?😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    2 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

    I'm a cold fan personally (although I enjoy warm weather in summer). I was disappointed by the easterly in February which was watered down and not that cold imo based on what the models had been showing prior to the event. Part of living in the UK i suppose! At least it's warm and sunny and not raining 🙂

    Apologies mods as it’s not current weather chat but have to disagree with that “Severe winter weather and storm Darcy, February 2021
    The UK experienced a week of severe winter weather from 7 to 13 February, with easterly winds drawing a bitterly cold airflow from eastern Europe. Storm Darcy brought some strong winds and heavy snow to parts of south-east England on 7th, while persistent snow showers resulted in significant accumulations across eastern England and Scotland. Daytime temperatures struggled to rise above freezing, and, combined with the wind, resulted in severe wind-chill, particularly on the exposed east coast. Much of eastern Scotland experienced deep lying snow with depths in some places of 20 to 30cm or more. 11th/12th February was a bitterly cold night with temperatures of -10 to -15°C across eastern Scotland, and three stations falling below -20°C. At Braemar, -23.0°C made this the UK’s lowest temperature since December 1995.” https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2021/2021_02_low_temperatures.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted (edited)
    20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Doesn't everything look 'pretty awful' to you?😁

    Well at T252 - ie I’d call low teen maxes, even lower than that across large parts of the country not awful but absolutely dire! Anyone disagree? 
     

    507951FF-FB79-4EAC-9C66-33CD30649C7C.thumb.png.9160066532116fe68e7edd8ea1a48536.png

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    Agree. Pretty poor second half of June is likely. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    absolutely dire! Anyone disagree? 
    507951FF-FB79-4EAC-9C66-33CD30649C7C.thumb.png.9160066532116fe68e7edd8ea1a48536.png

    I find your constant moaning quite endearing.. 😃...keep it up!!!...anyone agree? 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Much as I speculated on tomorrow's eclipse having the effect of a butterfly wing on sustained warm and dry weather that was previously being modelled, I'm inclined to think it could equally have an uplifting effect on the weather currently being modelled for next week, whether that is viewed as reasonable or worse than before sliced bread was invented!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I find your constant moaning quite endearing.. 😃...keep it up!!!...anyone agree? 😉 

    Is classing model output in the second half of June as dire with supporting charts showing low teen maxes moaning? I think thats a pretty accurate assessment to be honest. 

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