Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I think it will fall! 

UKV snapshot for Sunday 15:00 - surely a 30C in the bag. (Would be cruel if it maxed out at 29C. )

 

Also of interest the latest UKMO charts.

144: 850hPa temperatures (Monday 12:00)

 

Rain risk for quite a few of us.

 

168: 850hPa temperatures (Tuesday 12:00) - big drop in daytime maxima compared to twenty four hours earlier.

 

All subject to change this far out! 

ECM also has a patch of 28c showing for Sunday afternoon. Allowing your usual 1-2c upwards adjustment and it could be very close!

When you bear in mind the 12z run had this showing for this afternoon:

It actually reached 25c in London. So 30c certainly not out of the question.

[sheikhy]

Last hot day sunday according to ecm!!!the ecm is the most progressive of the top 3 models in shunting away the heat!!!if we go according to this 12z run then make the most of the heat from now till sunday!!dont look to wet after that anyway but temps look a lot cooler!!

[Daniel*]

Talk about from one extreme to other I’ve never seen such cold air to our north for mid June, evidently more runs needed with next week. GFS has been one hinting in last few days on a fairly quick breakdown while ECM has had none of it, now ECM is most aggressive with it...

[Paul]

The UKV is in fact showing 30c for Sunday.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

The UKV is in fact showing 30c for Sunday.

Just a 23 degree temp difference from the NW - SE

[Man With Beard]

Definite shift away from heat next week on the op runs. Unlikely to be the final word on the matter.

However, my sense is we'd be lucky to get a full week of heat after Sunday/Monday.

Still thinking there may be a mini push back of heat towards the end of next week in line with some recent ensemble guidance.

 

[Mr Frost]

7 minutes ago, Paul said:

The UKV is in fact showing 30c for Sunday.

Confusing business this - who’s version of the UKV do I believe then for the same timeframe? TheWeatherOutlook or Netweather!? 

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Confusing business this - who’s version of the UKV do I believe then for the same timeframe? TheWeatherOutlook or Netweather!? 

It's simply down to how it's displayed - the Netweather one is showing more of the data as the numbers are closer together.

[Djdazzle]

The ECM has been woeful after 144 with how much it’s been changing from run to run. Upgrade? Really . . .

I don’t believe the anomalies support anything overly unsettled next week.  So maybe a slightly cool down, but nothing like ECM is suggesting.

 

[Guest]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

The ECM has been woeful after 144 with how much it’s been changing from run to run. Upgrade? Really . . .

I don’t believe the anomalies support anything overly unsettled next week.  So maybe a slightly cool down, but nothing like ECM is suggesting.

 

Yep, it’s not performing well, GFS seems the most reliable recently and has been consistently breaking down the warmth from Tuesday onwards so inclined to go with the solution. Afterwards looks boring, average temps, weak fronts, probably lots of infill just hope nothing too troughy gets stuck over us...

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The ECM has been woeful after 144 with how much it’s been changing from run to run. Upgrade? Really . . .

I don’t believe the anomalies support anything overly unsettled next week.  So maybe a slightly cool down, but nothing like ECM is suggesting.

 

Not sure I’d believe any individual operational run post T144, there’s a lot of uncertainty.  I’ll stick to the clusters for the longer range!  Due out soon.  But I am a little sceptical of some models propensity to bring in more than a glancing low amid otherwise high pressure at the T144-T240 timeframe.  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, you couldn’t really ask for a better weekend in June could you??, really great charts for summer fans!...hot and sunny with temperatures close to 30c 86f in places! ... ? 

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T240:

And a look at the clusters T192-T240:

So either the low is going to impact us, or fall just short and promote a plume…(scenarios 1 and 2) time will tell, too much uncertainty for me at the moment.  The spread suggests pressure remaining reasonably high over the UK whatever though…

[summer blizzard]

Ever interesting though the models are we have I dare say consensus out to day 10 bar very small differences.

At day 7 the Atlantic sends its front, at day 8 and 9 the low move through, at day 10 a weak ridge (looks transitory) is thrown up.

[Mr Frost]

It is not looking great up here from a warmth perspective…14/06 onwards on the old ECM 850hPa temperatures. (Mean plummeting)

Glasgow: 

Further South…OP goes off on a much cooler outlier journey from 15/16th onwards. (Mean dropping a fair bit though on 18/06)

London: 

 

That is all in the distant future of course!

Plenty of sunny/warm/hot weather for many throughout this week and into next Monday. (At the very least!)   
Just make the most of that and worry/not worry about any breakdown/temporary breakdown next week. 

Plus the mention of a thundery breakdown should get one or two a little excited at least. 

 

Risk of 30C (plenty of warm/sunny days already in the bag and more for the week ahead) and thunderstorms/thundery rain within the first two/three weeks of Meteorological Summer isn’t too bad! Still July and August to come!
Very early doors in the season - loads of lovely/fine/warm/hot Summer days/nights ahead for us all hopefully. 

Then we can skip Autumn and head straight into a freezing/frosty/snowmageddon Winter 2021/22. )

All the best to everyone! 

Edited June 8, 2021 by Mr Frost

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

 Afterwards looks boring, average temps, weak fronts, probably lots of infill just hope nothing too troughy gets stuck over us...

Average temps for June are very pleasant, Weak fronts means little rain...... that sounds a lot better then a lot of summers over the past 15 odd years! We dont *need* heat for a good Summer, although it helps.

[TQWX]

UKV has a warm night next saturday with 14c here and parts of London not falling below 20c. Love warm days but not so keen on the warm nights.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2021 by TQWX
.

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

We dont *need* heat for a good Summer, although it helps.

*we* …speak for yourself mate! 

Enjoy reading all the posts you make…but can’t agree here.

You keep telling us we don’t need heat. (You sound like my 69 year old Grandad)
I’ve had average June temperatures today with drizzle, average June temperatures tomorrow with heavy rain! If I had a whole Summer of this I certainly wouldn’t call It a good Summer.

If it’s average June temperatures alongside sunshine galore then great…but it won’t be. (That’s @Alderc point on the output he mentioned) 

I don’t want stuff like this (charts below) to become reality. 

EC46: 21/06 to 28/06 - average temperatures alongside this rubbish.

 
Heat is what makes a Summer special - hence the excitement over local/regional/national records during the season. 
Nine times out of ten heat brings the top tier thunderstorms (or it used to in the SE ) Other areas seem to benefit more nowadays!

I know we all want different types of Summer weather but for me personally…average temperatures can sod off unless it’s going to be prolonged sunshine.

I am on here in Summer solely looking for heat/heatwaves, decent convective weather and any extreme weather type in general.

Some of the lads on this forum (reading different threads) don’t go out the house if temperatures are over 25C for fear of melting - it’s bonkers!    
Totally respect that though…we are all different. 

We register 30C+ up here in most Summer’s nowadays - maybe my bar has been set too high.  

Anyways…bring on the heat. (At some point/stage up here!   

Fair play to @Tamara - living the perfect Summer dream.

All the best!

Edited June 8, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Guest]

Not sure what to make of the models thiS morning (while trying to ignore the disappointing start here again) although I’m also trying to ignore GFS after about day 9 which gets into a dreadful mess with the UK being the troughy filling between two of big areas of high pressure, unfortunately this ties in with what @Mr Frost posted above from ECM so it appears a rapid downward trend through middle of next week, hopefully transitional but as we all know a pattern that can easily get locked in for a while. GEM however offers a little more hope and doesn’t really let the pressure fall too much, well not until beyond day 10 so certainly a more positive look to things there!! 

[mb018538]

UKV a fair way short of 30c on Sunday on this morning's run...

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKV a fair way short of 30c on Sunday on this morning's run...

It’s not the only one. GFS temps really, really disappointing for the entire weekend, its max temps. 
 

Sat - 24C

Sun - 27C

Mon - 27C only extreme south eastern parts. Birmingham only has a max of 19C for Monday. 

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

*we* …speak for yourself mate! 

Enjoy reading all the posts you make…but can’t agree here.

You keep telling us we don’t need heat. (You sound like my 69 year old Grandad)
I’ve had average June temperatures today with drizzle, average June temperatures tomorrow with heavy rain! If I had a whole Summer of this I certainly wouldn’t call It a good Summer.

If it’s average June temperatures alongside sunshine galore then great…but it won’t be. (That’s @Alderc point on the output he mentioned) 

I don’t want stuff like this (charts below) to become reality. 

EC46: 21/06 to 28/06 - average temperatures alongside this rubbish.

 
Heat is what makes a Summer special - hence the excitement over local/regional/national records during the season. 
Nine times out of ten heat brings the top tier thunderstorms (or it used to in the SE ) Other areas seem to benefit more nowadays!

I know we all want different types of Summer weather but for me personally…average temperatures can sod off unless it’s going to be prolonged sunshine.

I am on here in Summer solely looking for heat/heatwaves, decent convective weather and any extreme weather type in general.

Some of the lads on this forum (reading different threads) don’t go out the house if temperatures are over 25C for fear of melting - it’s bonkers!    
Totally respect that though…we are all different. 

We register 30C+ up here in most Summer’s nowadays - maybe my bar has been set too high.  

Anyways…bring on the heat. (At some point/stage up here!   

Fair play to @Tamara - living the perfect Summer dream.

All the best!

I AM a 64 year old granddad! lol

Sunny warm and mainly dry will suit me, put it like this, id welcome heat - im a heat lover, but theres nothing wrong with dry (or dry-ish) and average - its not a disaster.

[mb018538]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s not the only one. GFS temps really, really disappointing for the entire weekend, its max temps. 
 

Sat - 24C

Sun - 27C

Mon - 27C only extreme south eastern parts. Birmingham only has a max of 19C for Monday. 

ECM is slightly better and has a few 28c patches showing.

By Monday it's concentrated in the SE corner as some cooler air from the west approaches:



The ECM run as a whole isn't too bad though. Quite a deep low approaching by Tuesday, but it steers more or less out of the way:



It's that much out of the way that many areas don't even see any rain (barring the poor folk in NW Scotland):


Dropping down closer to normal, but certainly no summer washout. Just average, useable conditions. Sounds alright to me.

Edited June 9, 2021 by mb018538

[northwestsnow]

Looking at the 850s on EC we see quite a drop but pressure looks ok,I wonder if the time of year and attendant strong sun will help prevent the daytime temps being as low as they might look if using the 850s as a guide ...

 

[Man With Beard]

So temperatures moderating all round. Up until Saturday, mid 20s look like being the maximums, until Sunday when 30C is still a possibility.

Next week I would describe now as "iffy". Northern parts look certain to be less settled, and southern parts may enjoy better weather for a while but where the cut-off between Atlantic weather and settled weather lies may vary day to day.

Currently, the ECM shows a raw 25/26C on Tuesday for central southern areas up to the Midlands, which may mean 28C is achievable 

and Wednesday could still be hot in the SE corner (28/29C possible?)

before returning to average conditions for all by Thursday.

However, predictions for next week still look tentative and, with the Atlantic looking a bit hungrier again, I'd say the ECM is probably the top end of expectations now, and I wouldn't rule out an entirely average week with occasional rain for all.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2021 by Man Without Beard