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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Posted (edited)
    17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Let's have a heat watch for this mornings runs:

    GFS Saturday - 29c
    image.thumb.png.f8283904598c5131544e472789a6099e.png

    GFS Sunday - 27c
    image.thumb.png.92ff24d7e420d98a48a9a485fdaf5df9.png

    GFS Monday - 29c
    image.thumb.png.053d7c829475c01ed638181d7f8cd5b0.png

    GEM Saturday - 29c
    image.thumb.png.4cd114cf5cd24a01c868439a0a148649.png

    GEM Sunday - 29c
    image.thumb.png.49a31ea25eb86694885e48dba00b8d3e.png

    GEM Monday - 30c
    image.thumb.png.6e5debfcf23496ed2fa0bae5fa3de3b4.png

    A very warm or even hot few days coming up....I haven't even included Friday here, which could reach 27-28c in places.
     

    Whats the models saying mate?!!gfs kinda dissapointing for hot temps more widely for monday?!!ecm looked much better yesterday!!

    Edited by sheikhy
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM this morning more in line with @mb018538's post above - suggests scratching the 30C line from below, rather than exceeding it. So, not as hot as yesterday's 12Z run, probably closer to the middle ground, but hot for many nonetheless.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Whats the models saying mate?!!gfs kinda dissapointing for hot temps more widely for monday?!!ecm looked much better yesterday!!

    ECM is probably the worst of the models this morning for temps. Quite an odd temperature profile too, which indicates a colder undercut:

    image.thumb.png.dbcdb1707651658f527a35ae33d2fbc3.pngimage.thumb.png.daaee240cdceae8b93fcdf1b143e4ade.png

    We scrape an odd 27/28c, but no 30s on any of the charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Good morning all, as somebody with limited experience using the various models, is there one which is best at guessing daytime maxes during warm spells?

    Or is it a case of guessing from the T850s?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    Good morning all, as somebody with limited experience using the various models, is there one which is best at guessing daytime maxes during warm spells?

    Or is it a case of guessing from the T850s?!

    Using 850s to guess isn't wise as the chart above shows! The SE could have the highest 850s and be 10c cooler than other areas.
     

    1_rain_rate.png
    WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

    UKV is a high resolution numerical weather prediction model run by the UK Met Office

    TheWeatherOutlook have recently made the UKV model free to view, which goes out to 120 hours. I find this to be absolutely brilliant for predicted maxes. Run by UKMO at a very high resolution, and often very accurate. Going out past 5 days is guesswork anyway, so stick with this and you won't go far wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)

    Hints of something a little more unsettled coming through in the second half of June. Rainfall spikes starting to appear, and MSLP dropping slightly:

    image.thumb.png.93ef548d03ceed6e6b46cacfe5b1425b.pngimage.thumb.png.1606f8f8a5bf1cadfc053c6d85769418.png


    This could tie in with a bit more mobility as shown by the ECM regime ensemble yesterday. A period of +NAO (which can also be no bad thing in summer) is set to follow the current blocking regime (red squares), but blocking is strongly favoured to return as we move into July.
    image.thumb.png.6d7ede1e90cd96623db2065c49a48fdf.png

    As Simon Lee mentioned over on twitter, the latest ECM seasonal run at the beginning of June had a strong signal for Scandi blocking when compared to the May forecast (see diagram below). It also continued to forecast low Greenland/Iceland heights. It's good to see the 7th June update yesterday double down on this, and increases the chance of a warmer and drier July if this scenario plays out:

    image.thumb.png.4dc600cda88dcf45afe21f091957b932.png

    We will come back to this in 3 weeks time and see how the ECM mystical powers have done!
     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The ECM temperature forecast for the weekend match up well with the forecast cloud cover (Sunday for example has large amounts of cloud over SE England and the nearby continent whilst further north and west there are clear skies).

    Feeling a tad dubious about this, or at the very least the amounts predicted, not to mention forecasting at that time frame accurately would be very difficult so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the next run remove this completely.

    Week 2 looks a little more mixed with weather systems getting a little closer, but how much progress any rain makes is still up for debate, the south and east could easily stay dry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted (edited)

    Could be a month of two halves, both the GEM and GFS ensembles take a serious nose-dive around the 16th and GFS especially brings in some pretty cold weather for late June and 850s potential 4-7C below average. Payback weather in the offing so defo need to make the most of the next week. Hopefully a blip and not a return to an extended unsettled spell.

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Morning all

    As you may well have seen the 13 June is looking like it might break 30 but I reckon after the 13th, the 14th could also be hot however a much more noticeable north/south split on this one.

    image.thumb.png.d2ea243b4f11aabf48289af09a3c04b3.png

    The GEFS ensemble takes a noticeable dive around the 16-18th of this month, we seem to be having another possible month split in half.

    image.thumb.png.cc8625c67ef79fe1715713f37ef09a72.png

    This dive probably has a lot to do with this low around the 15/16th approaching.

    image.thumb.png.6daf9ac0bcc8dbfea270eaff77971c39.pngimage.thumb.png.801b98ff73536fd57b598e2f879fbb03.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Well the Anomalies have shifted a bit, and now suggest a pretty average moderate upper westerly sourced flow with slight troughing to our near West. Looking like a pretty normal summer pattern from the West, so unsettled but theres no strong trough nearby nor a strong negative pressure anomaly....so no washout, just average temps in an average pattern .

    But as this has changed, its inconsistent, so further runs will be needed to increase confidence, i agree with the post above - im not yet sold on a complete change of pattern and this possible return to average may not last. But that last bit is speculation..

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    There will be a partial solar eclipse for much of the Northern hemisphere this Thursday. (I think much of the UK will be impacted from about lunchtime for two or three hours, though to no significant degree).

    I wonder what impact, if any, this would have on the max temps for a day on which occurs, especially when it happens at peak heat time!

    Moreover, could there be any 'butterfly wing' impact upon the atmosphere as a result of the partial blocking of the sun which could give rise to a whole different set of modeled outcomes for our weather post Thursday? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM clusters this morning. 

    T168: You can see the subtle difference between cluster 1 (more southerly upper flow) and 2/3 (more WSW upper flow). The more southerly the flow (and for longer), the more the heat

    image.thumb.png.6eba34ab9f3ebb700512c1861148b34d.png

    I'm also interested in T240 (i.e. end of next week). The upper ridge is less secure, so less settled overall, but again those lines back south on all clusters. There's the chance of a quick plume there if the Atlantic doesn't rush in too quickly

    image.thumb.png.02cc4472a7a0fcb71b95198e23865c29.png

    @mb018538 - thanks for the link on UKV, very helpful 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS seems bullish now with the breakdown with any warmth pushed through by the end of Tuesday, both GEM & ECM have a slower breakdown and still a good chuck of the ECM ensembles hint on bringing in some sort of plume, all eyes on the 12Z's! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    On phone so can't really link but in comparison to the 12z runs the 0z GFS/GEM do broadly show the same westerly pattern at days 8-10 (GEM a tad less agressive, GFS more) however the Euro has moved somewhat to them with initial breakdown while interestingly still rejecting the easy shift through in favour of a low developing to our south west (plume or a lot of rain depending where it swings).

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester
    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Nothing much changes..I see some are already looking for the breakdown before the fine spell even starts! I thought that was only a winter mentality 🤣

    Let's remember where we have just come from,only a couple weeks back it was unseasonably cool!! So try not to get to dissatisfied if 30c is not breached in the next week.

    UKMO looking peachy for the next 6 days..we can't grumble,conditions are glorious for many out there today.

    Be Sun aware and safe folks..dont smother yourself in carrot oil like me,its a major wasp attractor 🤣

    UW96-21.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    UW120-7.gif

    4560293.jpg

    No this is model output discussion not a positive thinking self help forum - we discuss the output. All to play for as the breakdown is quite a way away - from the models/current scenario it looks to me like we might well get a riding Azores that gets pinched off as a transient hp over us with increasing temps then rinse and repeat - 1995 style... 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Nothing much changes..I see some are already looking for the breakdown before the fine spell even starts! I thought that was only a winter mentality 🤣

     

    So what do we do?... ignore all model output until the day before the breakdown?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    So what do we do?... ignore all model output until the day before the breakdown?

    Exactly - it’s been fine all month anyway. That’s just what is showing in the output. We’re just discussing what’s showing in the models. Are we not allowed to discuss if something slightly less settled shows up in the summer? 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, what do you think, folks? Will it or won't it?😁

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    It'll be close, IMO. Very close! But will the June 13th 'enigma' hold steady?!💦

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Still looking good at T+297. Anyone hoping for a SSE wind? Some of those T850s look quite toasty!💦

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Still looking good at T+297. Anyone hoping for a SSE wind? Some of those T850s look quite toasty!💦

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Looks more mobile and back down closer to average, but certainly no depressing washout. Low pressure staying just enough out of the way, and about where it should be during the summer months.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Using 850s to guess isn't wise as the chart above shows! The SE could have the highest 850s and be 10c cooler than other areas.
     

    1_rain_rate.png
    WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

    UKV is a high resolution numerical weather prediction model run by the UK Met Office

    TheWeatherOutlook have recently made the UKV model free to view, which goes out to 120 hours. I find this to be absolutely brilliant for predicted maxes. Run by UKMO at a very high resolution, and often very accurate. Going out past 5 days is guesswork anyway, so stick with this and you won't go far wrong.

    Thank you very much for signposting this @mb018538, you can see how much more detailed urban areas are rather than just blobs!

    As we all know, things can be going very well temp wise only for some unexpected cloud to roll in or a keen breeze to pick up! I for one will definitely be watching on Sunday given the talk of 13th June being the only summer day never to have reached the 30c mark. 

    Thanks you again and best regards!

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    Posted (edited)
    2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    Well, what do you think, folks? Will it or won't it?😁

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    It'll be close, IMO. Very close! But will the June 13th 'enigma' hold steady?!💦

    I think it will fall! 😄

    UKV snapshot for Sunday 15:00 - surely a 30C in the bag. (Would be cruel if it maxed out at 29C. 😁)

    6ED250AF-D971-4893-813A-088F07741154.thumb.png.5aeac3b9eb187072e5df9ff64b63bb6a.png
     

    Also of interest the latest UKMO charts.

    144: 850hPa temperatures (Monday 12:00)

    9BC4E626-4788-4B4E-AC43-A47CA1C07A4B.thumb.png.b10baf0d68aef5e4b1e573dff0a5c22b.png

     

    Rain risk for quite a few of us. (Risk of thunderstorms in East Anglia!?)

    83346BF5-BABB-4750-AA23-17D130C63278.thumb.png.ee6c36ce6f1b0864f145dbefb837e24b.png
     

    168: 850hPa temperatures (Tuesday 12:00) - big drop in daytime maxima compared to twenty four hours earlier.

    17624A51-4775-4A95-8AC0-DA5F3D59F4FF.thumb.png.3ed317d4465d834677f163997c97a583.png1E88E628-4E38-4257-AC22-4DC28D46BC6D.thumb.png.1e84add0f8e851b440148c96e5f2f82e.png
     

    All subject to change this far out! 😀

    Edited by Mr Frost
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