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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    It’s hard to see how you wouldn’t see some fairly widespread 30s in the south Sat-Monday on this evenings ECM
     

    Although again before that ECM along with the others suggest a really cloudy week, could be quite miserable in western areas and big temperature contrasts. 

    Aye, looking like end of 13th June enigma page

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)
    10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    What an ECM 12z operational!!!....Permission to say...BOOM??! 😯...if I was in the south you wouldn’t be able to stop me booming! 🤔 😉 🥵 🔥 ☀️😎 🍦 desert 🌵 🐫 🏝 🐿 🤯 🤯 💥 💥...ok that’s quite enough booming..for now..until I see the mean..then the 18z..then tomorrow’s runs..etc..etc..! 😉 

    AB7145F0-7E4B-46DB-8C18-68026D3AA48B.thumb.png.94dfb00b2088f8cd9a74b1ef5f1b48d5.png3C5585B1-0E5F-4AD3-9E80-7AD7824111DC.thumb.png.5a09b3b9a1c9874bb9f6296d107437b8.png515C5FC8-9240-47F6-8FF4-DF41B6B9592E.thumb.png.271134b8ac35f540ec90dcafb110fcbf.pngF2F427C7-4647-41BF-982E-D99708FADEAC.thumb.png.f70a5fdfc042835e50e110fb631872f3.png8743DF9C-4A17-4651-AE37-CAD8CDD14B69.thumb.png.3ce6a645a6dbb81870a76b09a84cb799.png6D205DE8-2A6A-407F-BCE3-E1649A1F7732.thumb.png.011daa5114627c85482cc33dbefdc6d0.png7174141E-097E-4CB4-98CA-462EB0C0F043.thumb.png.528debda6312bd14e5534afbdc8442e7.pngBC393691-FBEE-42E7-BCC3-ED97E685F57E.thumb.png.4f59a64457598d17a666eeffa4db562f.png7174141E-097E-4CB4-98CA-462EB0C0F043.thumb.png.528debda6312bd14e5534afbdc8442e7.pngD6658AE7-5862-4E47-ADAD-BAF6619A0CAE.thumb.png.3d811acd1977c240bf48d7de2c591683.png1CB4624C-CE6A-4A49-85C6-EAE7832C3B8D.thumb.png.7702f05e96ae5115fd4deebd7b6f184f.png66731564-B49C-4B9D-8D56-2E6C1C108849.thumb.jpeg.6a9b32f10e78fdb7a0349634896c4000.jpeg

    now all I want to know..is this a HOT 🥵 Topic!!! 😁

     

     

    30E82741-1B04-44A9-8A98-FB0FA823A4F1.png

    Yes JS. As Mr Frost stated the ecm12z keeps us (the south anyway) in the red right to the end of the run. 

     

    image.thumb.png.af9bf708c0b1a32e0a7405be1651b0ca.png

    Better than being in the black (or the green) this time. Today felt summary and yes,  this most definately is 'hot'

    🔥🔥

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    Posted (edited)
    2 hours ago, Alderc said:

    While a long way out it looks any warm spell will go out with a whimper, none of the models hinting at anything remotely convective. Decent storms have been hard to find in recent years and there looks like no change anytime soon.

     

    The way things are going, that could soon change. If we get an outcome anything like the ECM, there could be some very decent outbreaks, and they can often crop up at less than 3 days notice. With all that heat and stark temperature contrasts, to me would be a recipe for some crackers. When you add a bit of shear in the mix, storm windows of opportunity can be very fast paced, and the storms themselves can shift at quite some speed. Often makes chasing them very challenging. 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)

    According to ecm 12z,  Sunday must come mighty close to breaking that temp anomaly with 15 deg 850s being shown....to the far south at least

    image.thumb.png.0beff0f10493aaffe27a431f91da74e2.png

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean becomes pretty terrific, especially for the south with some very summery weather on the cards thanks to the Azores High, the mean being the average, with all the ensemble spread etc would never look as extreme as the op but even so, I think the chances of a noteworthy hot spell are increasing for the s /se...I wouldn’t be surprised if 32c 90f is reached, or even exceeded...my guess. Heathrow airport..for sure, both the Gfs and Ecm have hot potential..that can’t be denied! 😉... ☀️ 🥵 

    FB523D93-0A09-4702-B105-52484494DE05.thumb.gif.cd16348854a2356884383d2a3d64bf50.gif29E096ED-8642-48EF-A09A-4C66DDFF6829.thumb.gif.0823a978fe7f5be68fb26d719acecb90.gif8EEF8C26-89FB-4585-B8F0-03A539B5E03A.thumb.gif.811c38127bf203c5cf876e03084f4912.gifA94C121B-FD23-408D-8F40-EA3B374962C3.thumb.gif.06419c5f7adeea4703a36bba3d62d0e0.gif632B4251-73BE-45F4-8AA3-53AB26B9C2A6.thumb.gif.e89ed0ffe8758607ed47b648bdf5c690.gif7E9B16FB-6AF8-4AF3-9FC1-164EA507C083.thumb.gif.38dda73b4f42a0d8793b25663a9e54c6.gif0F40D76A-B0CD-42D5-93EB-54808D3B4F8F.thumb.gif.377d2cc567e0a3a4d95909b0d561377c.gifB5164C60-5308-4B51-8F21-D82F5F5E048C.thumb.gif.15ba875e9c427b88db7983cd2b839abd.gif

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Currently heading towards the week 2 solution where the trough drops to our west .....if that verifies, how Far East will it get ??? Could get steamy !

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    A warm and settled week coming up with high pressure staying largely in control.☀ Looks like things may be turning hot as we approach the weekend with 30°C becoming a distinct possibility especially for southern areas.📈🔥👍

    UKMO.thumb.PNG.57d88a5f6764c410976a5264c876f0e9.PNGGFS.thumb.PNG.95f7f8dba1cc9d0e0df1f45f39321911.PNGECM.thumb.PNG.6200c1215051d4efd48ef78a158aab20.PNGGEM.thumb.PNG.d2dc92a619c1a7b0d8c7553564b38903.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    As expected the ECM OP has gone off on one again in the final frames - warm outlier. 
    Again though…850hPa temperature still looking good!

    London:

    1F7D15AC-9EAD-4382-9F35-585C056F14A2.thumb.png.ca9caf4fbc86f62016ac482f8965099b.png
     

    I know it’s warm for many at the moment but the real heat arrives Saturday.

    UKV 15:00

    BDDD5AA4-6641-4695-A5DF-45DBDE53483A.thumb.png.de36f0270e17aa36093264ce0ccb9394.png
     

    Sunday 15:00

    842BF17D-F5AA-48BC-8BAC-548DB8CAD105.thumb.png.61cf3a28434e1d6490b007ffd35b34d1.png
     

    28C maximum on both days showing but you can see the potential for the first magical 30C of the year! 

    I love the weather in every season up here (especially Winter) but can honestly say I am totally jealous of you ladies and gents who live in the tropical SE England during Summer! Glorious at times. 😃

    We might have the tropical heat at times Mr Frost but we dont have the fantastic scenery and skyscrapes you have in Scotland. Even when it rains it still looks atmospheric. Then there is the snow.....😀

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    Posted (edited)

    EC46 broadly supports the expected AAM progression turning slightly but not particularly unsettled later in June after a possibly thundery breakdown with pressure rebounding into July.

    W2

    image.thumb.png.6a7fcc0fc41c30056eb330a5fd5d469f.png

    W3

    image.thumb.png.3fa682566db0093d9fa784e907f1dc7f.png

    W4

    image.thumb.png.37cfcd74213f28a87ec64fda7f2018aa.png

    W5

    image.thumb.png.6132c5e9657d5871987f8dfbf4e51aa3.png
    W6

    image.thumb.png.82da5c16d10beba96a886bc233232ab9.png

    Many would take that if offered. And fits with my overall summer expectation / current seasonal model delineation of HP waxing and waning  to the W and then E but hopefully not dominating too far to the NW or indeed SE.

     

     

    Edited by Uncertainy
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS and GEM vs Euro day 8-10.

    image.thumb.png.0abbebf023b4d1e6010628a90caa329b.png
     

    image.thumb.png.2aefe4ee96f292e7466caef1e8b5a7d4.png
     

    Vs

    image.thumb.png.0def59c067cfca5bfcfbf2b405bb9b62.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
    Posted (edited)

    Temperature forecasts from ARPEGE, GEM, ICON & ECM for the upcoming weekend. All models showing the high 20's widely and possible low 30's for some.🌡🔥

    340945946_ARPEGETemps.thumb.PNG.c3f5538fe1093bd51cbce3e7a1f81e07.PNG1401901067_GEMTemps.thumb.PNG.5c6b2a264ea0c49eb96560595e9fbc44.PNG1029114610_ICONTemps.thumb.PNG.afa7ad0f2079caedb7f5fec7286ae8a7.PNG937799988_UKVTemps.thumb.jpg.039a35b114c223db42187f65caee4d5b.jpg

    Edited by Iceman2606
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Lovely to see high temps coming into the reliable time frame.

    it seems that 30C is quite likely now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Temperatures rising , and it's all about to go bang....normal British weather...! 

    ecmt850.192-2.png

    h850t850eu-38.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Posted (edited)
    58 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Currently heading towards the week 2 solution where the trough drops to our west .....if that verifies, how Far East will it get ??? Could get steamy !

    Indeed.

    Most likely winners will be a swathe of mainland Europe, potential baking Iberia,Benelux,as far East as Poland/ Baltics. 

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean and spread at T240:

    9399FC54-BC3C-4A32-8C95-AB97891D9EF7.thumb.gif.1aa981e6e8d0cd724d9be74b7c119c16.gif16EDBF18-9945-4BD1-BF9D-34E615FA3132.thumb.gif.02f3774d62c7e23e20acd81a7605cb64.gif

    The spread chart shows there is a rump of high pressure over most of the south, uncertainty out west suggests potential for a plume is possible.  And this features on the first two clusters too:

    F2DAE1E7-9FC0-44AA-BB71-222294B579C3.thumb.png.2203e571607ef66f69916179dbd7cfc2.png

    Which is 40/51 members, so a good bet at the moment…

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    In terms of temperatures on ECM ensembles, quite a lot of scatter by D8, but the op run, whilst in the hotter "pack", is not the hottest. That said, quite a number of runs also dive back to normal-ish too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for my first installment for 2021 of "Guess the maximum"

    A reminder of my guiding principles!

    Inside T36: The AROME model rules

    T36-T72: The ARPEGE is the closest

    Beyond T72: No model is perfect, but the ECM "raw maxima" can be used with certain adjustments: Settled sunny conditions add 2 to 3C to the raw maximum (even 4C in a plume), thundery conditions add 0 to 2C, cloudy/rainy conditions, don't add anything. 

    We're almost certainly in the "settled sunny" category from this weekend onwards, so what's likely?

     Saturday: Raw maxes 26C = probably 28/29c in London

    Screenshot_20210607-212058.thumb.png.3f73e668823405229e680f0d9ab4f68e.png

    Sunday: Up to 30-31C in the Midlands 

    Screenshot_20210607-212231.thumb.png.c95f8421e27f956b15c2281a46b1128c.png

    Monday: Northolt or St James Park London have a shot at 31-32C

    Screenshot_20210607-212532.thumb.png.c750a140c4f4baba1cef99b1e3cf65b1.png

     

    Tuesday: (getting a bit more hypothetical now as bound to change) more cloud around so raw temps may be closer to the mark around the Solent, 27C ish 

    Screenshot_20210607-212721.thumb.png.fcced7052f22bf10ae8dabb414621ccd.png 

    Wednesday: The heat is back with a vengeance, and somewhere like Cambridge could record 33-34C *if* verified (unlikely in exactly this form) 

    Screenshot_20210607-212930.thumb.png.562a98248d1a31fece32411be3d0fb20.png

    Enjoy 🙂

     

     

    Love this MWB so often you were correct last year and it was notable when Navgem suddenly stopped over egging the temps too but I'm sure not many noticed that 😂.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    GFS 18z is pants with a touch of added 💩 for extra flavour, less heat at the weekend and a dartboard low just in time for solstice.  And to think of this base setting in around the summer solstice that sets the stone for the rest of summer, hmmmm toilet base perhaps?  

    pants.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    GFS 18z is pants with a touch of added 💩 for extra flavour, less heat at the weekend and a dartboard low just in time for solstice.  And to think of this base setting in around the summer solstice that sets the stone for the rest of summer, hmmmm toilet base perhaps?  

    pants.png

    Look at my post above^^ @38.7°C,the 18z doesn't fit in with the anomalies upto day ten so this one could be a cool outlier👍

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