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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Wow!!!hot ecm up to 192 hours so far!ukmo and ecm best of the bunch this morning!!gfs still keen on making it more plumey and breaks the heat down next wednesday!

    ECM has 26c+ every day from Saturday onwards this run. Locations of warmest spots will very much depend on where the high ends up. Here's a look at Monday for example, which shows a very marked temperature contrast! Very cold in Scotland to hot in the SE:

    2mtemp_20210607_00_180.jpg2mtemp_20210607_00_180.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Decent output this morning but I suspect this week could be a bit of struggle getting the sun across quite a few places but as mentioned by others there really could be a marked contract from the northwest to southeast through the weekend with potentially a 15-20C difference. GEM going for a warm 31C next Monday in the southeast but just 11C in the northwest Highlands. 

    Also I'm fancying the date record for the 13th June to fall, but can we sneak in a 30C and eradicate the most annoying weather stat in the UK, could be a close run thing.

    GEMOPUK00_180_38.thumb.png.756fc810b73d0e15e2ed8f6511b1ca90.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    While the GFS ensembles do bring in a marked change through the middle of next week some of the extended GEM ensembles are extremely hot with several not breaking down the heat leading to multiple days probably hitting 35C. 

    Anyone able to get the 2m temps for UK from the GEM ensembles? 

    347613897_gem-bournemouth-gb-505n(4).thumb.jpeg.a6042d34cc8bc852c8bad358a4e60dbf.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Gfs 6z blows up a 992mb dartboard low to come and sit over the UK in around two weeks time. 

     

    db2.png

    db.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Interesting modelling this morning from the 0z runs.

    So in comparison to last night all models do agree on the pattern breaking down at day 8 but it happens quite differently in a more cyclonic manner.

    Both the Euro and GFS essentially have the first low shift the high away but then have a second low pushing the heat away slowly and messily (GFS has this slow enough to plume). The GEM has the first low complete the job because the second low never properly develops. The 6z GFS backs the GEM.

    So indications of a probable breakdown but still more or less 50/50 as to how quickly it occurs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    The GEFS 6z mean indicates the Azores high will soon become the dominant feature again bringing a return to very summery conditions (especially further south) following a more mixed period initially, although it must be said the current conditions are pleasant enough, compared to the unseasonably cold / unsettled dross last month!...the signal for the second half / last third of June is more mixed, I think anyone who looks at the mean will agree with that!...but this certainly doesn’t preclude further high pressure / warmth..maybe even heat long term?, however, it should be noted that some of the longer term ensembles are very poor, but here’s a few good ones..glass half full!! 😉 ☀️ 🥵 👍 🍒 😯 

    0C736D51-B87C-47A4-829E-EA822244E630.thumb.png.2ec2f820c0943e5f5204391afa623122.pngE4E55FD2-DBD1-4B69-8C65-66E78311F9F7.thumb.png.355feae5841a094ade6604ba5c1ec7b3.png189D6914-84D0-40FB-AA94-9E552C9B3B54.thumb.png.889df321b673a3216d99b693183bc05c.pngE953D692-BDF3-4213-9D9E-1A06CC4CB979.thumb.png.867c01c007d7671fbabfd8c52b06132b.png20FE4599-66A6-45F2-A391-188FEABA1EA4.thumb.png.3256668dc86322b484422d217a297e71.png7024F78B-335B-4C0C-8EA4-C1914BAF412C.thumb.png.2283753317de3b7aab1dd013e2294f14.png34A07236-E140-4FC6-8995-D22574ED4D7F.thumb.png.c0be26ea471fc985e56c36c9549ac4b5.png808262BD-4B77-48C0-B3E6-36C1806AAC4D.thumb.png.97b5cecca2b00f1798276911acb19665.png2572EBED-321F-4E45-8974-629DF4DFF962.thumb.png.4cdcf929aa24ace4c009778590a00d63.png116330C8-2961-455B-8B77-1F2499000E5D.thumb.png.df7927f3490b202c22e82569d93f05f0.pngF5F3D5C9-9904-4FA8-8E87-A8855AA4E83D.thumb.png.57ad73390fa55610b03ae13b18060789.png2A98F19A-E9EE-4C12-BB32-E0262C65A76C.thumb.png.cbe4b0805873415e127fe9ee0a6aa7bd.pngBB5043E4-7D85-4A58-8C09-3466F5905FF5.thumb.jpeg.727a4e97370534a15f349780bd440161.jpeg

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    35 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

     

    So in comparison to last night all models do agree on the pattern breaking down at day 8

     

    The anomalies dont.

    But the 8-14 dayer doesnt have such a robust ridge as the 6-10 day chart, but despite a moderate upper westerly flow still has a slight +ive pressure anomaly. Given that the 8-14 day chart isnt as accurate as the 6-10 day chart, then it wouldnt surprise me to see that chart upgrade.

    From my pov, the ops are over progressive with the breakdown, which according to my interpretation of the anomalies isnt likely to be a pattern change, just a weakening . A short wet spell is possible though.

    Personally, im not seeing much of a change with high pressure having the upper edge over low, and whilst it may not be completely settled for long, its still imho, above average temps, below average rain (unless we get a thunderstorm).

    610day.03.gif

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    39 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    The anomalies dont.

    But the 8-14 dayer doesnt have such a robust ridge as the 6-10 day chart, but despite a moderate upper westerly flow still has a slight +ive pressure anomaly. Given that the 8-14 day chart isnt as accurate as the 6-10 day chart, then it wouldnt surprise me to see that chart upgrade.

    From my pov, the ops are over progressive with the breakdown, which according to my interpretation of the anomalies isnt likely to be a pattern change, just a weakening . A short wet spell is possible though.

    Personally, im not seeing much of a change with high pressure having the upper edge over low, and whilst it may not be completely settled for long, its still imho, above average temps, below average rain (unless we get a thunderstorm).

    610day.03.gif

    814day.03.gif

    Indeed, there should clarify that when I assess the models I am only assessing the operationals. There is a healthy dose of risk associated at those timeframes but one must provide balance to some of the endless hope here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well then, should the GFS 06Z be close to right, Sunday's 'enigma' could be under threat?🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    And Days 10 &15 look fair:  🌞

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    And, with T850s falling to between +2 and +5C, temps ought to stay comfortable enough:

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)
    8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Massive improvement on 12z ukmo compared to yesterdays 12z!!high not as in control as this mornings 00z but more importantly a ridge gets thrown to the east of us at 144 hours which will probbaly mean more hot weather than warm!!gfs looks same as last run up to 144 hours so far🔥🔥🌡☀️

    image.thumb.gif.2ae9f8e6ff053cfb94ac7a65d735e56c.gif

    image.thumb.gif.1b59e286277649ab115ad551a47a684f.gif

    UKMO 144 looks good to finally rid the UK of the only day not to reach 30c in the summer on Sunday. 850s up to 13c should be sufficient to get the job done in the SE!

    GFS doesn’t quite get there at 28c predicted, but these are often undercooked anyway, and 30c could happen here:

    image.thumb.png.a500bfc1b69301685b2681273e2efdfc.png

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the Gfs 12z operational I would say 30c 86f is within reach?, even at the weekend..indeed it is reached next Monday in the SE!...and could even reach 32c 90f when you consider how the Gfs underestimates maxima in summer by a good few degrees sometimes! 😉 ☀️ 🥵 🐿 😎 🍻 

    841B91B1-3FC0-4DF6-8A08-A8A9D2440FDC.thumb.png.bdf3d0794ac513f15633e97d80eb121f.png536094D2-1453-4F6F-B22E-6375067567F7.thumb.png.d5f11044dafc5bcd3f725eddf887d75a.png4EFC7281-A7BF-4F47-90BC-A44CC2B3D49E.thumb.png.0025e35115d4cd2156419312ecd0a5a5.png020EE87C-742D-48EF-BFE6-526CFD7BFD95.thumb.png.d08bb82a16ea67cf6d4118e46c8fc1c8.png207EC0A5-727B-465A-8093-9BD479E0D533.thumb.png.130b215c8ffcfb94cd491aeadab022c1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    While a long way out it looks any warm spell will go out with a whimper, none of the models hinting at anything remotely convective. Decent storms have been hard to find in recent years and there looks like no change anytime soon.

    Also I dont like the look of the GFS/GEM once we get into 8-9day time frame, looks like the Jet stream will be heading south and probably back over the UK, just a little concerning as sometimes its feel like the main pattern for summer can bed in around the middle of June, don't really want to see this too often....

    GFSOPEU12_222_21.thumb.png.c4eee4cee1985a122edb7067c4b91a07.png

    still before then hopefully 4-6 days of fine and increasing warm weather where we should get to 30C so will be absolutely making the most of any warm weather and have lots of golf booked!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    22 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    While a long way out it looks any warm spell will go out with a whimper, none of the models hinting at anything remotely convective. Decent storms have been hard to find in recent years and there looks like no change anytime soon.

    Also I dont like the look of the GFS/GEM once we get into 8-9day time frame, looks like the Jet stream will be heading south and probably back over the UK, just a little concerning as sometimes its feel like the main pattern for summer can bed in around the middle of June, don't really want to see this too often....

    GFSOPEU12_222_21.thumb.png.c4eee4cee1985a122edb7067c4b91a07.png

    still before then hopefully 4-6 days of fine and increasing warm weather where we should get to 30C so will be absolutely making the most of any warm weather and have lots of golf booked!!

    F654B2F1-6A1A-4B9C-AA3C-64C0D16919FC.thumb.jpeg.dbf0a5ffeb5d076bc682bb29495c5ba9.jpeg

    This looks promising into July. We can’t expect 12 weeks of settled weather, but if any unsettled interludes can be fairly brief, then July could hold some very fine weather. No La Niña to suppress things like last summer. I expect overall summer will be better than average - first 2 weeks of June have been great so it’s already miles head of last years debacle!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    F654B2F1-6A1A-4B9C-AA3C-64C0D16919FC.thumb.jpeg.dbf0a5ffeb5d076bc682bb29495c5ba9.jpeg

    This looks promising into July. We can’t expect 12 weeks of settled weather, but if any unsettled interludes can be fairly brief, then July could hold some very fine weather. No La Niña to suppress things like last summer. I expect overall summer will be better than average - first 2 weeks of June have been great so it’s already miles head of last years debacle!

    The AAM were positive through most of may on the chart you just posted and it still didn't give us warmth and high pressure dominated weather, just a greenland high so it can go both ways.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

    The AAM were positive through most of may on the chart you just posted and it still didn't give us warmth and high pressure dominated weather, just a greenland high so it can go both ways.

    A9AF9E96-36C4-4862-98C9-7C63F8959F6B.thumb.jpeg.715f1fa26de794ff5a009b491e1eed08.jpeg

    AAM fell away in late April before climbing to positive around the middle of May. It’s not an instant response - the lag time varies and it took until the end of May for an improvement after a couple of cycles, of which the first didn’t quite manage. 
    The April/May/June weather patterns in our neck of the woods have followed the changes in global momentum pretty well (ie dry settled April, unsettled and cool May before turning warmer and drier for June).

    924419D1-49DD-44D9-854B-D2EF2BC6937F.thumb.jpeg.e488ded278cfc6df6a0ca6ab9d91addf.jpeg

    AAM clearly isn’t a silver bullet otherwise forecasting would be a doddle. It can be a useful tool though, even with my quite limited understanding!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted (edited)

    It’s hard to see how you wouldn’t see some fairly widespread 30s in the south Sat-Monday on this evenings ECM
     

    Although again before that ECM along with the others suggest a really cloudy week, could be quite miserable in western areas and big temperature contrasts. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    It’s hard to see how you wouldn’t see some fairly widespread 30s in the south Sat-Monday on this evenings ECM
     

    Although again before that ECM along with the others suggest a really cloudy week, could be quite miserable in western areas and big temperature contrasts. 

    C4B3A6DF-2CCB-4B18-AA6D-887BFE7579E7.thumb.png.1b6f9ad343771efc0fe0697592c55f5f.png

    I agree - though when you look at the airmass, it’s tropical maritime, so not too surprising. When the heat arrives by the weekend it could feel quite sultry with warm nights and fairly humid days. Dew points on the GFS for example get up to 20c....with a 30c temp that gives 55% humidity, which won’t feel great.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Posted (edited)

    Models can change quickly. Only a few days ago, there was little if any sign of anything hot.

    Really hoping we can get 30C on Sunday to expunge that ridiculous temperature anomaly!

    Edited by Djdazzle
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