Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    And ukmo 12z finally smells the coffee!!told u so lol🤣😈🤷‍♂️!high building in much stronger!!!🔥🌡☀️

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Bom dia - saudação feliz do ensolarado Portugal🌞🙂 Timing of such change for the better proved highly concordant with the official curtain raiser to summer, and just as I was preparing to leave th

    Boa tarde🙂 Its a synoptically intriguing Spring-time situation with the atmospheric circulation, 'c/o tropical and extra tropical wind-flow cycles, still clearly 'remembering' the patterns of mid

    It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectab

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    And ukmo 12z finally smells the coffee!!told u so lol🤣😈🤷‍♂️!high building in much stronger!!!🔥🌡☀️

    Aye looks good! bit iffy potentially away from the SE, any SE shift of the high then Midlands will be damp/grey under the SW'lys

    more like the setup expected for August with 25 degrees plus for London/SE, 14 degrees for far NW

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Much better Ukmo 12h longer term compared to yesterday, the Azoren hoch 🤔...looks primed to bring back nationwide summery weather!...actually, before day 6 doesn’t look too shabby either, especially further south..compared to May, it’s awesome..Ja Ja Ja!!!! 😉 ☀️ 
    C4D46741-2722-4D39-93A6-C2FFEF81F1FF.thumb.gif.2e51a695941bd66e91993bb366ad757b.gif3BE113A9-984B-4F18-B801-39ECB9CA0D6B.thumb.jpeg.a4d84c55dde6e1de749ad35953ff39de.jpeg

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    Posted (edited)

    Not a showstopper but some very solid temperatures during this week.

    image.thumb.png.ff695009ba299e137c368ff29c95e331.png

    image.png

    image.png
     

    Winds generally from the west or south west, so eastern parts will see the sunniest and warmest conditions with the risk of more cloud and a little rain towards the north west. Week 2 still suggests another push of heights towards the U.K. If we can draw a continental flow or see surface heights settle through the U.K. we could see very warm or potentially hot conditions develop (close to 30c).

    GEM looks good at day 7

    image.png

    A pretty close match to the UKMO at day 6.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    Well there’s now doubting what the GFS 06z ensembles think beyond mid-month 😫 that’s a big old Plunge. Hopefully better from the midday suite.

     

    2099148214_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n18.thumb.jpeg.0c059f3492166129acbf47e061a33563.jpeg

    Miles better

    manchester.png

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n.jpeg

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Still waiting on the Euro tonight but the GFS essentially goes for a slow, warm and probably wet breakdown in the day 8-10 range as pressure breaks down but the Atlantic lacks the strength to fully clear residual warmth. 

    GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

    The GEM tonight essentially has a more conventional n/s split in the day 8-10 range as the Atlantic energy progresses east but gets pushed north (perhaps more likely than the GFS). The Atlantic will still probably win, but it may take a few goes with the Atlantic coming in slower.

    GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

    In the longer term the outlook for tropical convection at the moment moves the wave away from the West Pacific as has recently been the case as easterlies in the Pacific become the more dominant feature. Potentially suggest a more meaningful pattern change away from warmth for the final third.

    image.thumb.png.2cb446092d16e842174f3dddae52319a.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    Posted (edited)

    ECM day 6

    image.thumb.gif.90d9ac2034d2ec4936ed6f10ffd4fb7b.gifimage.thumb.gif.f25ec1fefbec126a75b9ca4cc49aacc2.gif

    High pressure pretty much slap bang over the U.K. Very warm and sunny for most as any fronts get pushed away from the north and west of the U.K.

    Day 7

    image.thumb.gif.69520e485df020ad2bcc3e8192f56f11.gif
     

    The position of the high doesn’t get much better than this for countrywide summer weather.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 12Z ens. are nae bad:   t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png  🌞

    But some of those 2m temps look laughable?😁

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    While getting to 30C on the 13th will be tricky it’s hard not to see the pitiful date record at least nudged upwards a touch given the output this evening. It’s all really strong to at least 168/192. 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    While getting to 30C on the 13th will be tricky it’s hard not to see the pitiful date record at least nudged upwards a touch given the output this evening. It’s all really strong to at least 168/192. 

    That blot on our summer copybook has to go at some point!

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 hour ago, Singularity said:

    image.thumb.png.cb44e1366783e62d7ccb95159ade87a3.png

    UKMO 168 is a stonker.

    Far greater ridge coverage compared to GFS at this point. That model seemingly obsessed with trying to redirect the polar jet through the UK by a week Tuesday.

    Encouraging update from Tamara for those seeking further fine weather beyond Sunday 13th. Suggests UKMO & GEM may be the models to follow over GFS, which is probably dropping AAM too fast and far as usual. Other models have it drifting down toward neutral which is not enough to make a big, long-lived pattern shift more than a low probability for third week of June.

    So, the mysterious UKMO T168 chart makes a reappearance after ages.  I’ve never been entirely convinced whether it exists or doesn’t!   

    ECM good to T168 but then looks messy to me.  

    GEM good and has high pressure to the east with a bit of a breakdown T240.

    GFS a bit more messy.  

    But, if we are now agreed on an Azores ridging scenario where highs break off and get cut off then there will be periods of fine weather punctuated with more unsettled spells, and this is what I think we are seeing on the models, and it is fine by me, decent summer weather, and probably a few thunderstorms in there too, I like the output at the moment.  

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Great set of 12z runs for the next 7-10 days. Bit open to question beyond mid month, but still very good. The lowest forecast max here until the 15th is 23c, which is very nice indeed!

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    So, the mysterious UKMO T168 chart makes a reappearance after ages.  I’ve never been entirely convinced whether it exists or doesn’t!   

    ECM good to T168 but then looks messy to me.  

    GEM good and has high pressure to the east with a bit of a breakdown T240.

    GFS a bit more messy.  

    But, if we are now agreed on an Azores ridging scenario where highs break off and get cut off then there will be periods of fine weather punctuated with more unsettled spells, and this is what I think we are seeing on the models, and it is fine by me, decent summer weather, and probably a few thunderstorms in there too, I like the output at the moment.  

    Looks good to 168 across most models - I’ll take that, as anything after that is fantasy land.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Looks good to 168 across most models - I’ll take that, as anything after that is fantasy land.

    Certainly is, especially in summer!

    With SSTs now warming from a cool base along the track from the Azores to UK, and AAM forecast to remain in positive territory, I favour a rinse and repeat of high pressure ridges from the Azores, breaking off and punctuated by lower pressure for a few weeks.

    5A104D56-7279-4419-AB87-53BFA5D9C535.thumb.png.bf669f09aa865e70313e3576113c464a.pngD3FB0EBC-5512-416C-9A6A-7E0C476C13B2.thumb.png.2a6faaef71ca4c4e326433d5e12ef9b3.png

     

     

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Certainly is, especially in summer!

    With SSTs now warming from a cool base along the track from the Azores to UK, and AAM forecast to remain in positive territory, I favour a rinse and repeat of high pressure ridges from the Azores, breaking off and punctuated by lower pressure for a few weeks.

    5A104D56-7279-4419-AB87-53BFA5D9C535.thumb.png.bf669f09aa865e70313e3576113c464a.pngD3FB0EBC-5512-416C-9A6A-7E0C476C13B2.thumb.png.2a6faaef71ca4c4e326433d5e12ef9b3.png

     

     

    Hopefully one will break off and lead to a decent plume!

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

    186FF864-8FDC-4F23-8C16-031F614E66C1.thumb.png.23bf2696240d0797c27d29f7897d8c2c.png

    Clusters 1 and 2 look most plausible to me given the 12z output we’ve seen, 1 settled, 2 potential plume.  3 is the dodgy one for the north anyway, 4 again with plume potential but hot.

    No point in posting the T264+ one, just one cluster - doesn’t tell us anything useful.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    image.thumb.png.8bddea78c5338a32c6754b4687ed73f1.png

    UKMO 144 😍😍

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    gemeuw-2-180.thumb.png.f80d60798f2b31057e4874520d5303dc.png

    gemeuw-11-180.thumb.png.a0876d4afe0ab24a89965371270663e8.png

    1562528853_gemeuw-2-186(1).thumb.png.81f64bb1c6d4c8bd4e497cb45271171b.pnggemeuw-11-186.thumb.png.5cba7b6e4755eb3a7bdd5a320ac1b271.pnggemeuw-2-192.thumb.png.200f526405b07f5fab54cbb656786c0c.png

    The 14th June

    Reverse D-day landings

    The French sens their Troops in the shape of a Thunderstorm that rapidly develops in the region of Normandy from 2pm to 8pm and hits the South East and East London. 

    Sorry got caught up in my own world there. 

    Looks like typical showers across especially London with some lightning in it possibly followed by, although it might just be a bit cluster of showers, I hope a French Import as looks possible. 

    So if that's true then I would like to order one GEM please. 

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Wow!!!hot ecm up to 192 hours so far!ukmo and ecm best of the bunch this morning!!gfs still keen on making it more plumey and breaks the heat down next wednesday!

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...