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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    In the short term ecm has heavy showers/storms across the midlands tomorrow!!!any other models agree with ecm?!!

     

    Midlands is a pretty big place so i doubt everywhere will see them but reading forecasts from as early as this morning would have told you what the expected weather would be

     

    Netweather - it'll be a trough which will serve to trigger some hefty downpours. Not just in central parts, but some will also potentially develop either side of it as well

    Metcheck - A mid level low pressure system will move Northeast across England and Wales on Sunday. Some decent instability for mid to upper levels with the risk of thunderstorms developing initially across high ground of Wales on Sunday afternoon and these moving Northeast into the Midlands and later East and Northeastern areas in the evening and overnight.

    and last but not least the Met Office - Cloudy for much of England and Wales with patchy rain followed by afternoon showers, some heavy and thundery. Mostly dry with sunny spells across Northern Ireland and other western parts

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    42 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    In plain old boring English...this from the ECM 12z op would be a bit warm..Ja..Ja..Ja...oops, could not resist! 😉 🥵 

    58B583D6-D1A6-407D-AA42-DEEDA5B6F59E.thumb.png.87db799c01302014dc8f53be05306b88.png1B0ACAD1-84D1-4ED6-9630-028E29065EF3.thumb.png.a2be6e7d32bc4a22e90313499a15b896.png0BE5049D-DC0B-489D-8628-C9708C8C2119.thumb.png.b160e5ea6ffabd039fb57a31bf8f867c.png

    Never seen uppers like that on a westerly. Looks a bit suspect. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Never seen uppers like that on a westerly. Looks a bit suspect. 

    On Meteociel it was there a bit of a heat bubble from the south/southwest caught in the flow, T192:

    011B7315-DD2D-45ED-8141-E89791142D2E.thumb.gif.492a1609d6631ae5381d215ea951d388.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

    Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean indicates Azores high / ridge dominance?..just my opinion! ☀️ 😉...bring it on..make it so!!! 😸

    C7047812-DB5B-4F17-B6BD-384A3B4269F7.thumb.gif.782944af886bbe1c27c8f341b33823c8.gif538F9408-F465-4508-BCCC-556F4E9A2F13.thumb.gif.00b451960844def3976899ad8da470bb.gifC269D39A-C972-41CA-81A6-D62BF106545C.thumb.gif.6f93a88e5cf443dfc5fb843e4264b16b.gif2F8B7651-3546-4E43-9F5E-939214286EB7.thumb.gif.70c970322359184b7c83fd9189ddb120.gif9DCB86CA-1E3E-4685-A2CD-8D7F19585AA5.thumb.gif.d595bc5a4bd8c1f48186c0d521e06ebc.gif

    Yes, Karl, and the spread at T240 gives a lot of hope to the south (of Scotland!) - very settled:

    3CC30B50-78D3-4EFD-96EF-F76A9E986D7D.thumb.gif.778eb3808b64486e537444f79907d380.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    52 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Never seen uppers like that on a westerly. Looks a bit suspect. 

    Cloudy, humid and damp. Look at the temp profile on ECM.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    And it’s day 10 - so zero chance of verifying! However, some of that cloud would likely break, where it would become hot and oppressive.

    As I said earlier, retrogression seems far less likely going by today’s output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Cloudy, humid and damp. Look at the temp profile on ECM.

    Looks more like something out of the tropics! Looks dubious to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    To be honest can't really see anything really settled in the ops models....yes some very warm at times for southern Britain but some unsettled weather crushed in between areas of high pressure 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    To be honest can't really see anything really settled in the ops models....yes some very warm at times for southern Britain but some unsettled weather crushed in between areas of high pressure 

    Bit disappointing to have fronts intermingled with the high in the next few days, but that's always the risk being in the westerly flow of a high.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    NAO is forecasting positive/neutral which is itself a positive for Summer lovers

    nao.sprd2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    We could be in for some perfect summer weather: reasonable temperatures, reasonable amounts of sunshine and reasonable amounts of rain:🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    The GEFS ensembles:

    image.thumb.png.dbd8a7cc774cfee1affa9ac25c919770.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-120.png   npsh500mean-240.png   npsh500mean-360.png

    A bit of something for everyone?👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Pretty good from 3 of the main models!ecm looks fantastic with heat and humidity throughout!!gfs looks same till well into fi!and ukmo looks better than 00z yesterday!!for me ukmo is still playing catch up!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Pretty good from 3 of the main models!ecm looks fantastic with heat and humidity throughout!!gfs looks same till well into fi!and ukmo looks better than 00z yesterday!!for me ukmo is still playing catch up!!

    9F8E8CE2-47F8-4C01-9920-F2FBD89CD483.thumb.jpeg.83714ddc91a659c0d689a7113018131e.jpeg

    Peak of the heat on this ecm run is Sunday, with around 28/29c forecast. The models are starting to firm up on a more W/E or NW/SE split, which you’d expect in a very warm tropical maritime flow. Cloudier in the NW and W with a little bit of rain....driest, brightest and warmest in eastern/southeastern areas closer to high pressure and as the air dries out across the country.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The week 2 modelling continues to offer a decent outlook but with less settled incursions- at the moment that looks to be either via an Azores ridges repeatedly pushing ne (allowing shallow upper troughs to break se in between the pulses) or a cut off biscay low dropping through the upper ridging that pumps a short lived plume and then escapes ne. 
     

    not a call worth trying to make at the moment but typical British summer weather (3 fine days etc etc) and a general broad nw/se split although the nw not doing too badly. 
     

    I note references to the ec seasonal above ....... early dec ramp sees high slp anomoly to our nw and higher than average precip across the central med area  ......

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    Posted (edited)

    Quite typical early summer charts on offer at the moment. Azore high beginning to flex its muscles but not strong enough to prevent fairly weak atlantic incursions at times. End product generally warm, driest in the south and east, some rain or showers at times as frontal features move west-east, most potent in the north and west, but nothing especially excessive. SE parts may draw in something significantly warmer by the end of the coming week as the azores high ridges in more concertedly. 

    Longer term - no major change signalled, bit of a tug between the upper ridge and the atlantic, longer term models suggest the latter will eventually, but may take a bit of time. Until then plenty of very good early summer fayre if you like warm weather, perhaps trending more unsettled than settled further north, staying fairly settled in the south. 

    I've said a few times the summer base state tends to settle in around or just after the solstice, so we have a couple of weeks yet to go, indeed I'd say how the charts are shaping up right now is almost textbook summer synoptics in this respect, either the atlantic will gain the upper hand or the azores / upper ridge, the next 2 weeks will see both do battle, lets see how things pan out..

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    anomalies support high pressure dominating over the period they cover. that does allow for transitory lows to skirt through but dont suggest troughing domination.

    to me, these charts look drier than average, warmer than average, but with a degree of mobility so no lengthy settled spell, unsettled but not strongly so.

     

    610day.03.gif

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Models compared to yesterday morning are broadly as you were in the day 7-10 range. A broad westerly Azores build but compared to yesterday both the GFS and Euro do strengthen the low moving through.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Just looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, the renewed strong Azores high signal is undeniable!...very summery weather to return soon following a more mixed but still pretty warm blip?...yes indeed! 🥵  😉 ☀️ 

    596EDE30-14E9-4E99-B812-8138FA0F4A02.thumb.gif.aae23ef85212b7fa1c14abf53d4989ec.gif8A7F78C4-4012-435A-B610-91F5BBE26093.thumb.gif.2d0fb5eae08078edf2cd5875c8b8bc20.gif639D19FE-34F7-4A18-A94A-DCA91E4D2896.thumb.gif.9cbf460469b21fc05b77a1aada400c6c.gifB4DF119D-4388-4269-A1A3-44943F3F8DD3.thumb.gif.8ca06c7192b6d38e508ab0f49c7b9af2.gifE6A2AF00-C721-4F79-9350-974B9C015B78.thumb.gif.dfd2f48d89ff8561ad6a36018b23e9b0.gifC4EA1AB1-9AD6-4B95-A88D-46A4D4772EC3.thumb.gif.cf404c949240bf1559501284bcb3d642.gif

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    anomalies support high pressure dominating over the period they cover. that does allow for transitory lows to skirt through but dont suggest troughing domination.

    to me, these charts look drier than average, warmer than average, but with a degree of mobility so no lengthy settled spell, unsettled but not strongly so.

     

    610day.03.gif

    814day.03.gif

    Would largely agree mushy. A NW-SE split as well looks likely, especially the 6-10 chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Once again my ability to spot rain not coming up from the CAPE in France and just being showers ahead of frontal rain is spot on if I do say so myself. 

    797505828_gfseuw-11-204(2).thumb.png.4afc23429d604c62e01b82c476ad4b6c.png

    gfseuw-2-204.thumb.png.6c4234cdb97fbb4a0b519e65fda7fe70.pnggfseuw-2-210.thumb.png.636b2764e69a75191ef0027fcd905151.png 

    I think I'm going to become French at this rate. 

    Mon nom est Xander

    je suis Français 

    🤣

    Anyway still looking good in semi-reliable time frames but still that threat from the North. 

    gfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.4c923e4a8d035de1a5856f9ee47b42d4.png

    gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.3fd8bc5208c69caeeefd9118c94e7f5b.png

    Eagle Eye

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Great post as always from Tamara..wish we were having some of what she’s having in Portugal!!..but actually, looking at the GEFS 6z mean, we will soon see a return to our own type of very summery weather!!, at least until around mid month? 🤔 ..beyond that, the mean weakens the Azores high signal but that doesn’t preclude further summery weather during the second half of June?!...as ever, my glass is half full rather than half empty!!!! 😛 ☀️ 🐿 😉 
    D8E24DEB-3EA6-4807-A3FD-8837C18C7414.thumb.png.f1bfd7bbce84167d8c626432c24b3540.png0C7B2D53-AC70-4DA5-BAE3-6D3C198BFCB6.thumb.png.982b0ba57620d371888cfde52224e99a.png83C42141-9994-40AF-902E-4138FD0A2231.thumb.png.6d1f6e42558c17eaf67b6ae835f2745f.png743B1567-8403-4661-BC75-F1F8D3408765.thumb.png.b5bf6c59da7a74b489e80cc5292132d5.png418B0C56-5494-4689-A3B0-500C63676F7D.thumb.png.053f14d812ab6b6ed832ffe9dce80ae9.png77C41A5D-E691-4D31-BF29-7204BBBD1A4D.thumb.png.ddfddcb8d6407274280c41ab799517ed.png593C78EC-2276-461C-8744-0F903C0F3904.thumb.png.08d9b608daeb6a3154320a8e53ccd43e.png9025ED68-F8D3-4534-8664-89075548B196.thumb.png.e45f9c0f0f1bccaf36907b46a0385100.pngB2019442-F57C-4305-8301-699069FCEDAE.thumb.png.64dd8a0e37207f3e1eb32d50102164b1.png03360E32-9B67-461B-9407-B87040B31E1B.thumb.png.2225d18eda45edf4194a53f7c0a01644.png22B34C3D-0E61-49CF-B502-62993BAD0C5A.thumb.jpeg.c27a2de345f537fb190e2f2abc4aee9b.jpeg

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well there’s now doubting what the GFS 06z ensembles think beyond mid-month 😫 that’s a big old Plunge. Hopefully better from the midday suite.

     

    2099148214_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n18.thumb.jpeg.0c059f3492166129acbf47e061a33563.jpeg

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