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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
    25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    The only day in June where the daily temp record is below 30c...

    There's a run of over 100 days between late May and mid September, with 30c recorded at least once. Except June 13th. It's a fascinating anomaly, but could definitely be at risk. 

    The 6z GFS is similar to the 0z. Azores ridging in after the low lifts out towards Iceland this weekend. Jet to the north. A very pleasant week of summer weather. There's the potential for heat to build in week 2, as a cut off low forms around Portugal.

     

     

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    Boa tarde🙂 Its a synoptically intriguing Spring-time situation with the atmospheric circulation, 'c/o tropical and extra tropical wind-flow cycles, still clearly 'remembering' the patterns of mid

    Bom dia - saudação feliz do ensolarado Portugal🌞🙂 Timing of such change for the better proved highly concordant with the official curtain raiser to summer, and just as I was preparing to leave th

    It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectab

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    What a chart!  h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png    🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    HP looking to be with us for the foreseeable with the next 10 days showing plenty of fine, warm summer weather on offer.☀👍

    GFS.thumb.PNG.fbfce8e6f396319a4daf23225ac52b76.PNGECM.thumb.PNG.710047d19ad5f9e4821561be7b2ab56c.PNGGEM.thumb.PNG.228bdabe885f5f3e6eb0563421e0dee8.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Great looking ECM 0z ensemble mean, not only in the short / medium term...but especially further ahead, even better than yesterday, stronger anticyclonic signal from the Azores!.... ☀️ 🥵 😉...let’s hope June makes up for that dismal May! 🤞

    741FF673-8BBB-4B8B-B76D-922CC2DF85BE.thumb.gif.6a203e7ee34eaf3a1d19bcfe8a25e0ac.gif19303D32-5F69-4D06-828F-4F529FA5CDBB.thumb.gif.7c5bd186fbbbe78c16016ad983cdd54a.gif196FF2C7-1C69-412A-8AA2-78FD6DFF6C1D.thumb.gif.5c7f800222a01ebf7cc83af55b1cf37b.gif9935B4EE-B44C-499A-9CA8-547B1C41CE8A.thumb.gif.c0b9d172724281b883ce82949b742fb5.gif 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    The only issue I have this morning from an IMBY perspective is the positioning of the high as it moves in after the weekend. This time it's more of an extension of the Azores High which can mean a fair bit of cloud (and sometimes drizzle) for areas from the Midlands north as it moves in- I hope this won't be the case this time.

    It's certainly looking great for southern areas and probably for all of us eventually.

    It looks like the setup next week will be more favourable to eastern areas than the one we have currently- at first anyway.

    June is a really good month of course for HP to be slap bang over the UK - maximum daylight and sun strength - we can create our own heatwaves without needing an injection from the south. I recall many years ago an innocuous high moving in from the west, at this time of year, producing 30C with no plume whatsoever.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    The only issue I have this morning from an IMBY perspective is the positioning of the high as it moves in after the weekend. This time it's more of an extension of the Azores High which can mean a fair bit of cloud (and sometimes drizzle) for areas from the Midlands north as it moves in- I hope this won't be the case this time.

    It's certainly looking great for southern areas and probably for all of us eventually.

    It looks like the setup next week will be more favourable to eastern areas than the one we have currently- at first anyway.

    The worst for here is, if it is positioned to the NE, or anywhere to the NW or W, dragging filth in from the north sea

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    The worst for here is, if it is positioned to the NE, or anywhere to the NW or W, dragging filth in from the north sea

    From a purely selfish point of view I'm not hoping for a hot June, not just becasue it would scupper my CET prediction, but frustratingly I have not used the past few months to lose the few stone I could do with losing, and, as a result, I know the heat would be uncomfortable!

    I must admit however the models aren't holding out a lot of hope for me at present.  However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of days 😃

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

    June is a really good month of course for HP to be slap bang over the UK - maximum daylight and sun strength - we can create our own heatwaves without needing an injection from the south. I recall many years ago an innocuous high moving in from the west, at this time of year, producing 30C with no plume whatsoever.

    June equivalent to December in this respect, coldest weather normally comes courtesy of highs overhead and homegrown cold... easterly and northerly feeds less likely.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    @DiagonalRedLine

    Is this where you get youre name from? 🤔 .... i must say, im liking it!

     

    Capture.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    On not one single day does the GEFS T850 mean go below 5C: t850Bedfordshire.png  t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    @DiagonalRedLine

    Is this where you get youre name from? 🤔 .... i must say, im liking it!

     

    Capture.JPG

    Aw no, my secret has been revealed 😂 You will be rewarded with some very nice weather for making that interesting discovery! Didn’t think anyone would ever figure it out 😲

    Certainly is a really interesting sort of setup; that diagonal red line of hot temperatures cutting through the middle and it being cooler on either side. In fact, that chart was only made possible because of that line...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    23F7882A-D3F9-4BD3-A01F-7454C91FBA0C.thumb.png.c36a5869b9089c4c51291f63356255d9.png

    Now this is the sort of NH profile I love to see in June! No damned Greenland high to be seen!

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.  

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    4 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.  

    Yes the high is further west

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)
    31 minutes ago, Howie said:

    Yes the high is further west

    When?  Looks good to me in the reliable, T192:

    61508579-A994-469E-985C-5C430CBF4364.thumb.png.70e74ce54d711da07daff8be1acc91bc.png

    GEM has the more positive late evolution:

    animcvs9.gif

    Heat just keeps on coming.  I honestly don’t see any reason in the outlook at all as to why the first two thirds of June won’t be hot and summery, with the odd thundery outbreak thrown in…after that is more uncertainty…but I still think the heat will prevail…we will see…

    Edit, the key for me on the GEM, and you can see it from the animation, is ridge from the Azores and ‘pieces’ of high pressure break off and drift east.  This is the classic UK (good) summer pattern…

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T120, nice pattern with the jet stream well north, blue, and a train of highs gracing our shores, what’s not to like?

    1A82B2FE-4A5C-4814-991A-173C885BA560.thumb.jpeg.8b2f1516547049f47faf7b98c1f46c1b.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    BETTY SWOLLOCKS!   h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png 

    Talking of which it sure was very warm out there in the gardens today. How was it in the polytunnel ES ?

    Anyhow it looks like the heat express is on its way from the Azores on Gfs 12z.....😚

    image.thumb.png.2f0580fb85a3a43f0139beb2731ab58f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

    GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.  

    It's just the start....

    5 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of days 😃

    <evil laugh>  😃

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)

    Whoooah!  ECM T240:

    AC66BF4E-38C2-482E-9B26-23A85B90FE9A.thumb.gif.11ca95ab9d8f7986d98688fccfdae4e0.gifFD3EBA78-8397-4ACC-9F96-E021A61C6DFC.thumb.gif.f4b7123d3c858d2b9e3f27bcb93baa5d.gif

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    If this is a Gfs downgrade?...what can I say...I love this downgrade! 😯 😉 ☀️ 🥵 🐿 ❤️ ...those are noon temps, you can add several degrees to that! 😸

    7C50FC01-CC14-4BDA-9FFC-4B6F0D5B9902.thumb.png.6f76d39e1228c0c0cb83eb251b3e604f.png8BEE9580-948D-47C5-8D6F-50A03E219319.thumb.png.bb23b02567747747284d8c63fe13ea5b.png5FA4C56F-C301-4655-ABB3-EF7D556941DA.jpeg.fd58deb2bd88f65130aef6f5f49bd32c.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    ECM 12z at 240 and GFS 12z at 240

    image.thumb.png.7e8aa8497367cf712b5028ef783b357a.pngimage.thumb.png.50aa9618bcb40e3e0263599f4cac3a3f.png

    Any similarities?....

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Whoooah!  ECM T240:

    AC66BF4E-38C2-482E-9B26-23A85B90FE9A.thumb.gif.11ca95ab9d8f7986d98688fccfdae4e0.gifFD3EBA78-8397-4ACC-9F96-E021A61C6DFC.thumb.gif.f4b7123d3c858d2b9e3f27bcb93baa5d.gif

    That’s really not the warmest chart.....need the high further east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    That’s really not the warmest chart.....need the high further east.

    It's clear that that is what would happen though if the run went on further.

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