Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[rwtwm]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The only day in June where the daily temp record is below 30c...

There's a run of over 100 days between late May and mid September, with 30c recorded at least once. Except June 13th. It's a fascinating anomaly, but could definitely be at risk. 

The 6z GFS is similar to the 0z. Azores ridging in after the low lifts out towards Iceland this weekend. Jet to the north. A very pleasant week of summer weather. There's the potential for heat to build in week 2, as a cut off low forms around Portugal.

 

 

[Methuselah]

What a chart!           

[Uncertainty]

One of those odd situations where locally the day 8-10 period has more confidence than the days preceding it.

The high building north at day 8 has been unusually well forecast by the models and anomaly charts and remains consistent.

ECM day 8

GEFS mean for same timeframe

GEM

NOAA

As many experienced forecasters on this forum have noted, 2-3 days of consistent modelling by the means and anomalies increases confidence significantly. Marry this info to the background signals (higher AAM being maintained for now - Nino-like atmospheric tendencies) and confidence increases further.

Before then though, as we lose our present Scandi high and await the AH rebuilding process, there is the possibility of a brief flattening of the pattern, exemplified by the 0z GFS

A SW flow bringing cloud and rain to the NW, driest further SE.

Should this flattening be even stronger than presently progged, it could take us to a day 8 position where the ridging AH is weaker and further east

Maintaining the SW flow in the far NW but continuing the warm pattern elsewhere. 
 

On the other hand, and more likely, the high never loses control and rebuilds quickly and strongly over the U.K. exemplified here but the Day 7 GEM

 

Beyond this towards mid June, 5 options on the EPS clusters and all of them featuring high pressure. Nothing extreme temperature wise but a continuation of the dry theme is evident.

 

And what of the summer as a whole? Too early for the European seasonals but notable that both the CFS and Cansips have jumped significantly towards a warm and blocked affair for NW Europe.

CFS JJA mean

Cansips June

July

August

 

Large Caveat = Skill level of seasonals in Summer for U.K.  = not great 
 

So far so good for summer lovers then in both the short, medium and longer term. 2018 it ain’t but it’s hard to avoid the signal for high pressure going forward at multiple time scales. 

[Iceman2606]

HP looking to be with us for the foreseeable with the next 10 days showing plenty of fine, warm summer weather on offer.☀

[Frosty.]

Great looking ECM 0z ensemble mean, not only in the short / medium term...but especially further ahead, even better than yesterday, stronger anticyclonic signal from the Azores!.... ...let’s hope June makes up for that dismal May!

 

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

The only issue I have this morning from an IMBY perspective is the positioning of the high as it moves in after the weekend. This time it's more of an extension of the Azores High which can mean a fair bit of cloud (and sometimes drizzle) for areas from the Midlands north as it moves in- I hope this won't be the case this time.

It's certainly looking great for southern areas and probably for all of us eventually.

It looks like the setup next week will be more favourable to eastern areas than the one we have currently- at first anyway.

June is a really good month of course for HP to be slap bang over the UK - maximum daylight and sun strength - we can create our own heatwaves without needing an injection from the south. I recall many years ago an innocuous high moving in from the west, at this time of year, producing 30C with no plume whatsoever.

[Methuselah]

BETTY SWOLLOCKS!         

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

The only issue I have this morning from an IMBY perspective is the positioning of the high as it moves in after the weekend. This time it's more of an extension of the Azores High which can mean a fair bit of cloud (and sometimes drizzle) for areas from the Midlands north as it moves in- I hope this won't be the case this time.

It's certainly looking great for southern areas and probably for all of us eventually.

It looks like the setup next week will be more favourable to eastern areas than the one we have currently- at first anyway.

The worst for here is, if it is positioned to the NE, or anywhere to the NW or W, dragging filth in from the north sea

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

The worst for here is, if it is positioned to the NE, or anywhere to the NW or W, dragging filth in from the north sea

From a purely selfish point of view I'm not hoping for a hot June, not just becasue it would scupper my CET prediction, but frustratingly I have not used the past few months to lose the few stone I could do with losing, and, as a result, I know the heat would be uncomfortable!

I must admit however the models aren't holding out a lot of hope for me at present.  However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of days 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

June is a really good month of course for HP to be slap bang over the UK - maximum daylight and sun strength - we can create our own heatwaves without needing an injection from the south. I recall many years ago an innocuous high moving in from the west, at this time of year, producing 30C with no plume whatsoever.

June equivalent to December in this respect, coldest weather normally comes courtesy of highs overhead and homegrown cold... easterly and northerly feeds less likely.. 

[mushymanrob]

@DiagonalRedLine

Is this where you get youre name from? .... i must say, im liking it!

 

[Methuselah]

On not one single day does the GEFS T850 mean go below 5C:   

[BlueHedgehog074]

28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

@DiagonalRedLine

Is this where you get youre name from? .... i must say, im liking it!

 

Aw no, my secret has been revealed  You will be rewarded with some very nice weather for making that interesting discovery! Didn’t think anyone would ever figure it out

Certainly is a really interesting sort of setup; that diagonal red line of hot temperatures cutting through the middle and it being cooler on either side. In fact, that chart was only made possible because of that line...

[mb018538]

Now this is the sort of NH profile I love to see in June! No damned Greenland high to be seen!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.  

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.  

Yes the high is further west

[Mike Poole]

31 minutes ago, Howie said:

Yes the high is further west

When?  Looks good to me in the reliable, T192:

GEM has the more positive late evolution:

Heat just keeps on coming.  I honestly don’t see any reason in the outlook at all as to why the first two thirds of June won’t be hot and summery, with the odd thundery outbreak thrown in…after that is more uncertainty…but I still think the heat will prevail…we will see…

Edit, the key for me on the GEM, and you can see it from the animation, is ridge from the Azores and ‘pieces’ of high pressure break off and drift east.  This is the classic UK (good) summer pattern…

Edited June 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, nice pattern with the jet stream well north, blue, and a train of highs gracing our shores, what’s not to like?

[minus10]

7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

BETTY SWOLLOCKS!         

Talking of which it sure was very warm out there in the gardens today. How was it in the polytunnel ES ?

Anyhow it looks like the heat express is on its way from the Azores on Gfs 12z.....

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.  

It's just the start....

5 hours ago, Timmytour said:

However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of days 

<evil laugh>  

[Mike Poole]

Whoooah!  ECM T240:

Edited June 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

If this is a Gfs downgrade?...what can I say...I love this downgrade! ? ...those are noon temps, you can add several degrees to that! 

 

[minus10]

ECM 12z at 240 and GFS 12z at 240

Any similarities?....

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Whoooah!  ECM T240:

That’s really not the warmest chart.....need the high further east.

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

That’s really not the warmest chart.....need the high further east.

It's clear that that is what would happen though if the run went on further.