Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T240 heat fest incoming:

    A4CE2DC6-EA08-4F9A-9067-443721964324.thumb.gif.35e4b9bcee0360c526b9e4954fce901d.gif448D6C5A-0DFD-478F-B530-08ADE69FD8A9.thumb.gif.3ead17c55af3a6c065588e0bf5f7b134.gif

    That red porpoise of heat is poised 🌞

    Incidentally, my iPad has determined that given any empty text box, my most likely 3 words I’m likely to enter are: ‘I’ ‘Yes’ and ‘ECM’.  That is a bit worrying!

    That high pressure slips a little east and the blow torch floodgates will be opened. Could be not to dissimilar to the late June 2019 plume. 

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Evening all Latest EC 46. (Just posting charts for the next two weeks) 500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies.  28/06 to 05/07 - North/West UK and Ireland looks the place to be for

    Bom dia - saudação feliz do ensolarado Portugal🌞🙂 Timing of such change for the better proved highly concordant with the official curtain raiser to summer, and just as I was preparing to leave th

    Boa tarde🙂 Its a synoptically intriguing Spring-time situation with the atmospheric circulation, 'c/o tropical and extra tropical wind-flow cycles, still clearly 'remembering' the patterns of mid

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Posted (edited)
    15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    That high pressure slips a little east and the blow torch floodgates will be opened. Could be not to dissimilar to the late June 2019 plume. 

    Hopefully without the North Sea drift which gave surface temperatures of 18C with 24C uppers!

    Edited by Djdazzle
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)

    Nothing too 'traumatic' hidden within the latest GEFS ensembles, usual GFS 2m underestimates notwithstanding::drunk-emoji:

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models showing a predominantly warm dry sunny outlook, I use the word 'warm' nothing overly hot on the immediate horizon, but consistently high teens to mid 20s is very good for early June.

    Our summer base state tends to bed in around the solstice, need to give it another 2 weeks I say before can say likely trend for the summer. We've had good starts to summers go poor by the solstice last year a good example, some where the good weather has held sway right through to late July but not sustained into August think 2018, some where things changed late June to goo weather such as 95 and 2013.

    I'm reminded back to 96 which produced very warm locally hot weather end May and into June, the following summer was very decent not overly hot but consistently warm, sunny and often dry with some rain at times, I'd take that! 

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Models showing a predominantly warm dry sunny outlook, I use the word 'warm' nothing overly hot on the immediate horizon, but consistently high teens to mid 20s is very good for early June.

    Our summer base state tends to bed in around the solstice, need to give it another 2 weeks I say before can say likely trend for the summer. We've had good starts to summers go poor by the solstice last year a good example, some where the good weather has held sway right through to late July but not sustained into August think 2018, some where things changed late June to goo weather such as 95 and 2013.

    I'm reminded back to 96 which produced very warm locally hot weather end May and into June, the following summer was very decent not overly hot but consistently warm, sunny and often dry with some rain at times, I'd take that! 

    2004 and 2007 had good starts to June, and went downhill fairly quickly. So I am always quite wary!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM ensembles, here’s the mean, and where’s the jet stream going? T240:

    1526E240-07E8-460B-8BC4-A9651F95C03E.thumb.jpeg.fdf2de0195eb6f28e324e0194e85f4b3.jpeg

    Spread:

    0EBEC9AD-5B6D-4FA5-B5D4-99114C93C534.thumb.gif.4af080f80089da6afeb1ea185f84d62b.gif

    It is all going north, and will be for a while, which leaves us in the UK to enjoy nice settled summer weather.  

    A chance that all the first 10 days of June will see 25C exceeded somewhere.

    Such warmth is common in the second half of June, but not often such a prolonged warm period in the first half.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    Nothing too 'traumatic' hidden within the latest GEFS ensembles, usual GFS 2m underestimates notwithstanding::drunk-emoji:

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    A noticeable improvement from last night in the mean- it's looking very promising indeed.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    Posted (edited)

    All 👀's on the GFS 18z and its looking very stonking ☀️ next week.  I think our first 30C will easily come before Solstice if these model runs come to life. 

    850.png

    850.png

    heat.png

    hot.png

    ukmaxtemp (1).png

    ukmaxtemp (2).png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Edited by 38.7°C
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    GFS 18z you beauty!🤩

    1735534756_GFS18z.thumb.PNG.3aa0fa2fe785a6ee4e21047a094ad198.PNG624908636_GFS18z2.thumb.PNG.af6227409a47c64deb1914e42ba8a23d.PNG

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Bit scared to look at the models, 8am and no posts 😂

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The only issue I have this morning from an IMBY perspective is the positioning of the high as it moves in after the weekend. This time it's more of an extension of the Azores High which can mean a fair bit of cloud (and sometimes drizzle) for areas from the Midlands north as it moves in- I hope this won't be the case this time.

    It's certainly looking great for southern areas and probably for all of us eventually.

    It looks like the setup next week will be more favourable to eastern areas than the one we have currently- at first anyway.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Looking good for an above average June 🌞☀️🌩

    92FEB6A0-AB56-4099-B62C-FC6F630BAB78.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
    13 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    You missed the post about the foehn effect on Liverpool when theres a Southeasterly then.... 

    Ive never noticed airports being warmer, and certainly not enough to warm a whole area, im sure the scientists would have worked that one out.

    Isn't there a station at Formby as well? That's been the highest in the country a few times, especially in spring.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    Got to be very happy with the. ECM 0Z mean going forward. We deserve this after that grotty May. Nothing but warm air building.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Not a great run for imported thunderstorms but would be if those storms could come up from Benelux as they have done on previous runs, between Friday and Sunday. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
    10 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

    All 👀's on the GFS 18z and its looking very stonking ☀️ next week.  I think our first 30C will easily come before Solstice if these model runs come to life. 

    850.png

    850.png

    heat.png

    hot.png

    ukmaxtemp (1).png

    ukmaxtemp (2).png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    The 13th June chart has caught my eye. I think the date record is 28.7C from memory. There must be at least a slim chance of that falling this year. 

    Otherwise the models generally painting a picture of a June most will be happy with. Warm without being outrageously hot. Mostly settled but not completely dry.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    35 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

    The 13th June chart has caught my eye. I think the date record is 28.7C from memory. There must be at least a slim chance of that falling this year. 

    Otherwise the models generally painting a picture of a June most will be happy with. Warm without being outrageously hot. Mostly settled but not completely dry.

    The only day in June where the daily temp record is below 30c...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Not a great run for imported thunderstorms but would be if those storms could come up from Benelux as they have done on previous runs, between Friday and Sunday. 

    is this all you think about ?

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z looking like another stonker: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png   🌞

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    is this all you think about ?

    Maybe... 

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-07-24 07:44:05 Valid: 24/07/2021 0600 - 25/07/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 24TH JULY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-07-23 07:27:43 Valid: 23/07/2021 0600 - 24/07/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 23 JULY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1

      Heatwave fading, unsettled conditions moving in across the south this weekend

      Heat loses its grip into the weekend, with low pressure bringing heavy thundery downpours to the south, northern areas drier, sunnier and warm. All areas unsettled next week, with spells of rain or showers. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...