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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

2 rounds or so possible but low chance this run still positive that it's on the Models. 

gfseuw-2-12.png

gfseuw-2-30.png

gfseuw-11-30.png

gfseuw-2-102 (2).png

gfseuw-2-114 (3).png

gfseuw-2-114 (3).png

gfseuw-11-102 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad weekend in store, I feel? Maybe worth keeping an eye on just where that (to use the technical term) 'green snot' is headed, though: 

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

 

Green snot should get swallowed by the low exiting the eastern usa?.......with the high building over the uk....!!

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Netweather GFS backing this continued trend of a Storm System coming from Continental Europe and now possibly a second round so if the first round misses the South of the South East as it seems it might then they could get that second one possible but whether these Storms could survive the Journey. 

705201038_ukprec(31).thumb.png.cc6967c88628d1fcbb063d3f658e24ca.png

1489603300_ukcapeli(15).thumb.png.11f68796da5b19fb4b152d61789c11ef.png

1283285930_ukprec(32).thumb.png.410dadb05032a39aef7fe2c760218581.png

1489603300_ukcapeli(15).thumb.png.11f68796da5b19fb4b152d61789c11ef.png

1096175960_ukprec(33).thumb.png.e2d4b8d4a2ac4663c5c3a9b9d0a9d074.png

262109216_ukprec(34).thumb.png.c1ffe738e98f015822760646978a97d0.png

177634364_ukprec(35).thumb.png.17c19bb0690cdffd643476fa5968998d.png

568337443_ukprec(36).thumb.png.88f4275eb50289a7a0a355ae25bd2545.png

ukcapeli (16).png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is it so warm in Liverpool? Noticed the past few days its been a couple of degrees higher there than a lot of other areas in the NW of England. Very odd to see Liverpool nearly equal to London during hot weather I always thought Liverpool was a cool place

I'm convinced the Liverpool Airport station is compromised in some way- it's consistently considerably warmer than the stations close to it.

I would be interested to know if it's an official site and to see the exact location of the station as there is nothing geographically that would explain its higher readings- if anything you'd expect it to be lower than the surrounding area with its proximity to the Mersey estuary.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm convinced the Liverpool Airport station is compromised in some way- it's consistently considerably warmer than the stations close to it.

I would be interested to know if it's an official site and to see the exact location of the station as there is nothing geographically that would explain its higher readings- if anything you'd expect it to be lower than the surrounding area with its proximity to the Mersey estuary.

Makes a change for another airport’s readings to be questioned - poor Heathrow is bracing itself for the annual onslaught!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

AB7F0B4A-6CA7-4C09-A90B-A7CBF14C192B.thumb.jpeg.949ce9c10e0c62fac89e0c76f94ce43c.jpeg
 

Well the NW area around Liverpool does well in this E/SE set up due to a fohn effect as the winds come over the tops of the hills and warm up further on the leeward side. Could just be a peculiarity why it’s warmer, not too sure where the station is situated there. If it’s urban that could add a bit on. Trawsgoed is often the warmest in NW Wales though, and that’s a rural spot.

It makes more sense with Trawscoed as it has higher ground immediately to the east.

The Liverpool station is at the airport and it's very flat immediately to the east.

I want to see the station itself to see if there is anything potentially affecting the readings.

Manchester Airport has topped out at 24C this afternoon and it's also low-lying- I see no reason for the difference between there and Liverpool Airport (probably only 25 miles apart).

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It makes more sense with Trawscoed as it has higher ground immediately to the east.

The Liverpool station is at the airport and it's very flat immediately to the east.

I want to see the station itself to see if there is anything potentially affecting the readings.

Manchester Airport has topped out at 24C this afternoon and it's also low-lying- I see no reason for the difference between there and Liverpool Airport (probably only 25 miles apart).

Liverpool is by the side of the River Mersey, the state of the tide can have an effect. Having worked at both stations there is, at times, quite marked differences in weather, wind, temperature etc.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Today's GFS 12Z is an all-out stonker!  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  

                                                                                       image.thumb.png.7d65556e1d639dc3bba6475d7b09627f.pngimage.thumb.png.6125034866d22049917cf39aa201eac8.png    

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GFS 12Z is an all-out stonker!  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  

                                                                                       image.thumb.png.7d65556e1d639dc3bba6475d7b09627f.pngimage.thumb.png.6125034866d22049917cf39aa201eac8.png    

Not for the east on the above two charts - just for fun at that range though!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Djdazzle said:

Not for the east on the above two charts - just for fun at that range though!

Aye, looks like grey and 14 degrees here, but aye deep FI

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

With a HP sat slap, bang over the UK?

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
57 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm convinced the Liverpool Airport station is compromised in some way- it's consistently considerably warmer than the stations close to it.

I would be interested to know if it's an official site and to see the exact location of the station as there is nothing geographically that would explain its higher readings- if anything you'd expect it to be lower than the surrounding area with its proximity to the Mersey estuary.

You missed the post about the foehn effect on Liverpool when theres a Southeasterly then.... 

Ive never noticed airports being warmer, and certainly not enough to warm a whole area, im sure the scientists would have worked that one out.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

You missed the post about the foehn effect on Liverpool when theres a Southeasterly then.... 

Ive never noticed airports being warmer, and certainly not enough to warm a whole area, im sure the scientists would have worked that one out.

I see no reason why Liverpool is any different from the rest of the NW in terms of a foehn effect in a southeasterly- it would be more likely in a southwesterly in truth with Snowdonia and the Welsh Mountains to the west/south west.

I agree about airports, my point wasn't about it being an airport site but just that the readings are anomalously high at times compared to other local stations.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m liking the model output at the moment, since this was first hinted at about two weeks ago, it has stuttered and come into focus on more runs - and for me it looks like the summer heat lovers dream of a reloading pattern of a trough in the Atlantic, with Azores ridging, and break off of repeated mini-highs into scandi.  Rinse and repeat.  Last seen in 2018.

12z runs are variants on that theme, GFS looks textbook, T144, T192, T240:

D238DA82-0805-4AC4-A12B-C836AA673483.thumb.png.3d71cd8c0db947a016e3c09f0ed0be52.png85A53DE1-BC9D-4784-A286-1EEE9246598A.thumb.png.254737d6146878dbb67a8c4d26d9963e.pngAED42EEA-4973-44C8-8AF4-81F60538CCBE.thumb.png.0e22265cffd4b29c36d151ced7953208.png

GEM gets a bit more carried away, but the result could be some thundery weather:

animjdp2.gif

UKMO promising as far as it goes T144:

F3A9B36D-180A-4B41-95E7-2460B8DCD767.thumb.gif.8ce61f26be0c03523be8f639b4c17c46.gif

I think we are good for proper summer weather for at least a couple of weeks here, and possibly much longer.  It is a good time of year for the pieces to fall into place with a blocked pattern.  After the washout and cold May, the outlook could hardly look better in my view.  

 

I’d take this pattern all summer. With the occasional plume to get into the 30s. I sense it’s only a matter of time.

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A solid start to summer and for the next 10days or so while showers and some rain looks likely it should really only be very transitionary in nature with Temps into the low 20s most of the time in the south. Certainly after the crud of May a more than acceptable scenario, especially if we can get the Azores high ridging in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d take this pattern all summer. With the occasional plume to get into the 30s. I sense it’s only a matter of time.

I was born in '76 and I'm often reminded of that summer. I remember '95 well as I was commuting over the Pennines from Bradford and witnessed Scammonden dam turn into a virtual dust bowl. 2013 was the next best for prolonged dry weather. It would be a dream for this spell to reload for weeks on end. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T144:

778BBAD0-2B0F-4E71-B36C-1AAC1C55718C.thumb.gif.ca9e7c6451ff65df83d4cf82b2ee8818.gifCB6EC054-C156-4066-941D-78C107226D4C.thumb.gif.8fc772ed0e707adcf771ee08a5e3e538.gif

Notable with the current beautiful weather the upper temperatures are nothing special - that will change as the heat lurks to the south, and the pattern we expect will allow that to move towards us, although not particularly quickly at the moment.  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, thestixx said:

I was born in '76 and I'm often reminded of that summer. I remember '95 well as I was commuting over the Pennines from Bradford and witnessed Scammonden dam turn into a virtual dust bowl. 2013 was the next best for prolonged dry weather. It would be a dream for this spell to reload for weeks on end. 

I was 19. How time flies! You're right, it was a 'dustbowl'. But it did follow a stonker of summer AND a very dry winter! I do hope that 'lessons have been learned', since then?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Liverpool is by the side of the River Mersey, the state of the tide can have an effect. Having worked at both stations there is, at times, quite marked differences in weather, wind, temperature etc.

 

To add it is also an official site, or was, when the new runway was first used. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, march of the Azores ridge unstoppable:

A433D1FF-A394-41B6-B338-B0767E060D26.thumb.gif.aff5d37b3cdeceb3bbee59afcb4528fe.gif

Heat poised more favourably:

DB909396-8094-456A-8908-0DFB868CF058.thumb.gif.40fdecf88294c7333976444853a1ebea.gif

For summer, the 192 chart is a classic setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter

Some of the charts being churned out currently are utterly fantastic!  The miserable May we've just had will soon feel like a distant memory I reckon!

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