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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I went looking 👀 to see if the cold end to the Gfs 12z operational had any support from the ensembles purely out of curiosity...and I found this one!..to be fair it’s in the minority, there are some relatively much warmer members in that timeframe just before May...but the coldie in me...you know, well I’m sure the coldies know what I mean! 😉 🥶 ❄️....but I must add that I’m also looking for plumes!.... 🥵  ⛈ ☀️ yes I’m conflicted!!...🙃

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    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Boa tarde🙂 Its a synoptically intriguing Spring-time situation with the atmospheric circulation, 'c/o tropical and extra tropical wind-flow cycles, still clearly 'remembering' the patterns of mid

    Hi gang ,charts all favourable for mostly dry weather and increasing warmth. I have been lurking about ,had a bad chest infection but now feeling better. I've not had  Sausage Bap for over 3 weeks, bu

    For those in the UK this summer, I think that is a good enough signal, at that range, based on the increasingly likely potential evolution of tropical and extra tropical forcing driving the atmosphere

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Poor ECM tonight too. Cold air just stuck over the UK and doesn’t ever leave. Hopefully an outlier!

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Well the ECM brings in quite cold air from the east , for April anyway 😱😱

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    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    With the air flow sourced from either the north or east, nothing too exciting in terms of warmth in the near future.

    GFS OP and ECM both suggesting retrogression and renewed heights over Greenland later in the month and GFS in particular ends on a bleak note for southern and eastern Britain with LP and a cold NE'ly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I sense GFS has triumphed once again, ECM now maintaining a cool E/NE feed. April 2021 determined to be markedly below average. I said elsewhere in my part of London, April 1-14th mean max is 6.4C cooler than same period in 2020. Quite remarkable.

    A005A494-EE50-4137-A457-035ED9E2677F.thumb.gif.397e756f28bc752cbf950968403d025e.gif

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    24 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Well the ECM brings in quite cold air from the east , for April anyway 😱😱

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    oh so close ish...warmer air within....jumping distance to the south....

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    seems to be a warm air shield around the uk at present..🥶

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Tragically cool GFS with those cold Ops ‘outlier’ runs looking like the form horse now especially with ECM following suit. Coldest April since 1989 pretty much nailed on, how close will it get to 1986? 
     

    ECM has max temps back down way into the mid-high single digits. Shocking for the end of the month....

    Edited by Alderc
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    25 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Tragically cool GFS with those cold Ops ‘outlier’ runs looking like the form horse now especially with ECM following suit. Coldest April since 1989 pretty much nailed on, how close will it get to 1986? 
     

    ECM has max temps back down way into the mid-high single digits. Shocking for the end of the month....

    I really hope there's some sort of turn around because I honestly can't take this cold anymore

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Howie said:

    I really hope there's some sort of turn around because I honestly can't take this cold anymore

    It’s dreadful, ended up running with gloves, two layers again and that was just after 5pm. Fully fed up now.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models continue to show a predominantly dry settled outlook, some patchy rain for the north and west Sunday moving slowly SE into more northern parts of England and Wales Monday into Tuesday, but otherwise it looks a dry picture for most. High pressure back on the scene by middle of the new week.

    However, nothing overly warm on the horizon, indeed temps climbing into average territory, but with cold nights, mean temps will end up only just average or probably still below.

    Longer term, GFS picking the trend of yesterday, high pressure retrogressing to the NW, and a cold flow from the NE. ECM showing this as well. At any other time of year, the odds would be less, but in late April, the odds of a high retrogressing NW probably at the highest it can be at any other point in the year. Northerlies and easterlies far more likely now.

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

    Well the ECM brings in quite cold air from the east , for April anyway 😱😱

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    It's going to be one of those years

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, BARRY said:

    It's going to be one of those years

    Holidays off the cards, a washout summer will probably be a slam dunk compounded by half the north invading the south coast looking for some sun all probably followed most likely by a winter with 12-15c all the way through. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Wow some of you Summer chasing guys need to find a little of what us cold lovers find in Winter...PATIENCE!! Its only mid April for crying out loud! Glorious conditions here last few days...clear skies and feeling warm in the sun..cool and crisp at night and great to sleep in! I'm sure your heat will manifest itself in the coming weeks at some stage...it always does! In the mid term still some lovely looking charts that us coldies would be drooling over come December! Have patience Summer camp,you will get your rewards at some point,but don't forget it's still to early,and a positive start doesn't always equate to a positive ending! 

    In the meantime cold crew enjoy the chilly nights and the hope of a real taste of Winter later this year! That's me jumping the gun a little 🤣

    Keep it safe and have fun!! 😉

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    Hard to have much patience when it’s consistently 5c colder than it should be every day, and even more so when it was cold enough for snow. Thankfully it looks like a recovery of sorts into next week and we won’t have to freeze our asses off in the cold. People aren’t demanding a heatwave, just something a bit more springlike. Mid teens is alright, single figures or 10c in April is just poor.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Sunday into Monday and Tuesday enough instabilty from the Atlantic to create some beautiful and potent storms....Media forcasts won't nail this to the last minute....

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Even some snaw Ed..now we’re talking! 😉 ❄️ ️ come back coldies!!!... 😯 🥶 

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    No, not coming back until November at the earliest, I posted my Monday snow photos in the regionals... I'm done 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Sunday into Monday and Tuesday enough instabilty from the Atlantic to create some beautiful and potent storms....Media forcasts won't nail this to the last minute....

     

    You keep going on about severe storms but there is no evidence for it in the model output. To get good thunderstorms at this time of the year you need really cold air aloft and a cyclonic flow or a plume event. The current charts show neither.

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Nice to see you have your positive head on again mate..perhaps better suited to the moans thread though! It's far to early to even be thinking about how poor things might become! This is becoming deja vu....You heat lovers are throwing in the towel before the season as even began...a bit like some of the coldies do in December!! Things are moving in the right direction if you ask me...and a successful Vaccine program trumps everything!! Plenty to look forward to if you ask me.

    He is a glass (half) empty chap isn’t he?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Well, wouldn't this be just typical!😁

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    If only it was .......

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.c150b42ee64ee5d8ec4fa84b54d822f7.pngimage.thumb.png.4338907220ed1541417f6cd5cfb10d36.png

    So much for a warm up next week if this mornings UKMO OP run is to be believed.....another shot of cold air incoming.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.c150b42ee64ee5d8ec4fa84b54d822f7.pngimage.thumb.png.4338907220ed1541417f6cd5cfb10d36.png

    So much for a warm up next week if this mornings UKMO OP run is to be believed.....another shot of cold air incoming.

    Looks like we are stuck in perpetual lower double digits at best. GFS run is messy and ECM to 120 looks very close to UKMO. In a bit of a rut.

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