Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[jonboy]

22 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It’s already been well covered but where’s the harm in another opinion?..  ! .  .....anyway, I’m really pleased with the ECM 0z operational, especially with the renewal of the Azores high / ridge later...if that or something similar verifies, June could well be one to remember...for the right reasons..unlike May!  

 

Looks like June might live upto the legend of FLAMING

[sheikhy]

Just taken a look at the ukmo and like the ecm and gfs dry warm and sunny!!!all good in the hood!!!

[sheikhy]

Which of these models is run at higher resolution at just 48 hours out?!!ecm or euro4?!

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Which of these models is run at higher resolution at just 48 hours out?!!ecm or euro4?!

Euro4 is higher res. Euro4 runs at 4km resolution, ECM hi res is at 9km.

Edited June 1, 2021 by mb018538

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Euro4 is higher res. Euro4 runs at 4km resolution, ECM hi res is at 9km.

Nice one buddy!!went for a run at 7am and it felt like it was 20 degrees already at that time!!the only thing that gave me a bit of relief was that slightly cool southeasterly breeze!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

We seem to have drifted into the Euro High/Atlantic trough pattern for early June.  The Azores High is often cited as the main thing to watch, but in the setup that's currently forecast, rather than having a stronger than average Azores High ridging up to the UK, we have a flattened Azores High and low pressure out in the Atlantic, but the jet stream is being deflected northwards as it approaches the British Isles, with a dominant anticyclone over north-western Europe.  This pattern was a recurring feature of June/July 1976, July/August 1995, summer 2003, and in the Julys of 2006 and 2018.

The UKMO shows the Atlantic breaking through at T+144 but I expect that if there was a T+168 it would show a reload of the current pattern with another ridge of high pressure heading up from the south-west.

The ECMWF ensemble mean also has this NW Euro high/Atlantic trough pattern going out to T+240, with a >1020mb high centred over the British Isles.   That's pretty significant, as I've noticed a tendency for the ECMWF ensemble mean at days 8-10 to be overly hasty in bringing the Atlantic in.

A potential "fly in the ointment" (as the saying goes) with this pattern at this time of year is that at some point during June we often get the "Return of the Westerlies", with the Azores High strengthening and the jet stream powering up to the north of the high.  This could result in the Atlantic trough heading east towards Britain later in the month, and my feeling is that this is most likely around 15-20 June.  However, that's a long way off, and there's no guarantee that any such breakdown to westerly-dominated weather would last particularly long.  At one end of the spectrum you have the likes of 1992 and 1993, where westerlies set in during late June or early July and then persisted for much of the rest of the summer, but at the other, you have the Junes of 1976, 1995 and 2018, when the westerlies arrived around 15 June, but proved to be very short-lived, and high pressure built over the UK starting around 21 June.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

We seem to have drifted into the Euro High/Atlantic trough pattern for early June.  The Azores High is often cited as the main thing to watch, but in the setup that's currently forecast, rather than having a stronger than average Azores High ridging up to the UK, we have a flattened Azores High and low pressure out in the Atlantic, but the jet stream is being deflected northwards as it approaches the British Isles, with a dominant anticyclone over north-western Europe.  This pattern was a recurring feature of June/July 1976, July/August 1995, summer 2003, and in the Julys of 2006 and 2018.

The UKMO shows the Atlantic breaking through at T+144 but I expect that if there was a T+168 it would show a reload of the current pattern with another ridge of high pressure heading up from the south-west.

The ECMWF ensemble mean also has this NW Euro high/Atlantic trough pattern going out to T+240, with a >1020mb high centred over the British Isles.   That's pretty significant, as I've noticed a tendency for the ECMWF ensemble mean at days 8-10 to be overly hasty in bringing the Atlantic in.

A potential "fly in the ointment" (as the saying goes) with this pattern at this time of year is that at some point during June we often get the "Return of the Westerlies", with the Azores High strengthening and the jet stream powering up to the north of the high.  This could result in the Atlantic trough heading east towards Britain later in the month, and my feeling is that this is most likely around 15-20 June.  However, that's a long way off, and there's no guarantee that any such breakdown to westerly-dominated weather would last particularly long.  At one end of the spectrum you have the likes of 1992 and 1993, where westerlies set in during late June or early July and then persisted for much of the rest of the summer, but at the other, you have the Junes of 1976, 1995 and 2018, when the westerlies arrived around 15 June, but proved to be very short-lived, and high pressure built over the UK starting around 21 June.

The latest 00z ukmo run for same time has the green snot further north and west and high ridging in even more!!more in line with the other models!!!

[johnholmes]

25 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The latest 00z ukmo run for same time has the green snot further north and west and high ridging in even more!!more in line with the other models!!!

How very technical, along with your usual overuse of the exclamation marks.

To take up the post from TWS the 500 mb anomaly charts out to about 14 June go along with your suggestion, no marked Atlantic activity for the first 2 weeks of June which is as far as they go of course.

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

How very technical, along with your usual overuse of the exclamation marks.

To take up the post from TWS the 500 mb anomaly charts out to about 14 June go along with your suggestion, no marked Atlantic activity for the first 2 weeks of June which is as far as they go of course.

Of slight concern is the pressure the high comes under from the northwest between 120 and 144 hours this morning but the ridging still manages to win out!!apart from that those anomalies you posted look spot on!

[Frosty.]

It’s usually a good sign for summer fans when the mid / longer term mean looks like this from the GEFS 0z with a strong signal for the Azores high to continue being influential beyond this week and no sign as such for any unpleasant Atlantic activity in the vicinity of the u k?...I think we deserve a FLAMING June don’t we? ?   

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[AltonMatthew]

We seem to be jumping with models to around the 10th June... I’m interested what the output is for the 4th June onwards... selfish gains as having a week in Cornwall and just hoping for dry bright weather even if it can’t be overly warm! Anyone advise?

[Frosty.]

I think there’s currently good support for a rinse and repeat Azores high / ridge pattern judging by the GEFS 0z perturbations etc.., certainly well into the mid range looks pretty ridgy / anticyclonic, I think any Atlantic unpleasantness would be mainly reserved for more northwestern / northern areas of the u k from time to time? whereas southern u k and especially the southeast would predominantly continue in the current summery conditions with potential for occasional thundery more humid interludes?...there’s some very nice looking perturbations...there’s some crud too longer term...but I will gloss over those! ...saw enough of that in May!! ⛈ ? 

 

 

[sheikhy]

18 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I think there’s currently good support for a rinse and repeat Azores high / ridge pattern judging by the GEFS 0z perturbations etc.., certainly well into the mid range looks pretty ridgy / anticyclonic, I think any Atlantic unpleasantness would be mainly reserved for more northwestern / northern areas of the u k from time to time? whereas southern u k and especially the southeast would predominantly continue in the current summery conditions with potential for occasional thundery more humid interludes?...there’s some very nice looking perturbations...there’s some crud too longer term...but I will gloss over those! ...saw enough of that in May!! ⛈ ? 

 

 

Any update on the 06z op buddy?!!out on my deliveries now lol!!

[mb018538]

33 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

We seem to be jumping with models to around the 10th June... I’m interested what the output is for the 4th June onwards... selfish gains as having a week in Cornwall and just hoping for dry bright weather even if it can’t be overly warm! Anyone advise?

Looks like you will be in luck. Potential for some rainfall on Sunday 6th, but otherwise mainly settled. Temps probably in the 15-20c range. Doesn’t look like any heat being around at this stage, warmest conditions through this period look to be more towards the SE. Not a bad week to go away though, certainly no washout!

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any update on the 06z op buddy?!!out on my deliveries now lol!!

It’s not bad at all buddy, plenty of ridging from the Azores and warmth too, there’s also a risk of Thundery showers breaking out at times with increased humidity  and the warmth / pressure ebbs a bit from time to time but on the whole..it’s decent for early summer and there are better options in the ensembles, as is to be expected..I’ve seen worse!   

Edited June 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

Nice to see the GFS covering itself in glory again. Gone for a 22c max here today on the 6z run and we’re already at 24.4c at 1pm. It often fails miserably at max temps.

Same with Liverpool. 23c predicted, currently 25c

Edited June 1, 2021 by mb018538

[summer blizzard]

Interesting output this morning.

The change from last night's comments are that while the GFS remains more agressive with the Atlantic in the medium term (greater frontal progression) the Euro, GEM and GFS do now agree on a pressure build over/west of the UK out to day 10 so a retreat west from the mean last night (GFS/GEM building over/east).

It may be worth watching for further westward correction (cooler uppers, onshore cloud issues).

With regards to the talk of prior hot summers this pattern is somewhat different to all of them. 2013 and 2003 were markedly Azores driven into Europe (think of a winter Bartlett setup), 1995 and 2018 were markedly Scandi driven, 2006 was closer to the later but a bit east.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Why is it so warm in Liverpool? Noticed the past few days its been a couple of degrees higher there than a lot of other areas in the NW of England. Very odd to see Liverpool nearly equal to London during hot weather I always thought Liverpool was a cool place

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM does actually have a few isolated showers on day 8-10 with a disturbance trapped under the high. Conjecture at this point as it’s so far away, but could see a fly or two in the ointment. Hopefully not eh!

Hope not because that is the time the solar eclipse is occurring.

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Why is it so warm in Liverpool? Noticed the past few days its been a couple of degrees higher there than a lot of other areas in the NW of England. Very odd to see Liverpool nearly equal to London during hot weather I always thought Liverpool was a cool place

 

Well the NW area around Liverpool does well in this E/SE set up due to a fohn effect as the winds come over the tops of the hills and warm up further on the leeward side. Could just be a peculiarity why it’s warmer, not too sure where the station is situated there. If it’s urban that could add a bit on. Trawsgoed is often the warmest in NW Wales though, and that’s a rural spot.

[Liam Ellis]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Well the NW area around Liverpool does well in this E/SE set up due to a fohn effect as the winds come over the tops of the hills and warm up further on the leeward side. Could just be a peculiarity why it’s warmer, not too sure where the station is situated there. If it’s urban that could add a bit on. Trawsgoed is often the warmest in NW Wales though, and that’s a rural spot.

Trawscoed is more mid Wales - places like the north Wales coast, Caernarfon, Porthmadog does well with the fohn effect.

[mb018538]

24 minutes ago, Liam Ellis said:

Trawscoed is more mid Wales - places like the north Wales coast, Caernarfon, Porthmadog does well with the fohn effect.

You are quite right. Failed my geography exam there! Porthmadog is usually the hotspot in the NW as you say.

Edited June 1, 2021 by mb018538

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Nice to see the GFS covering itself in glory again. Gone for a 22c max here today on the 6z run and we’re already at 24.4c at 1pm. It often fails miserably at max temps.

Same with Liverpool. 23c predicted, currently 25c

That's some serious underestimations! Reached 27c here in the back garden weather station nearby! But we are a little microclimate here. I lie 27.3 right now ...

[Frosty.]

Just before the 12z runs get into full swing, let me take you back to this mornings ECM 0z ensemble mean which pretty much mirrors the operational, any Atlantic influence would probably be restricted to brushing across the far NW and most importantly...another surge from the Azores high later!!...so I’m very optimistic about our prospects in the mid / longer term..renewal of heights from the Azores with plenty more warm / very warm and predominantly settled weather and even a few thunderstorms at times...in the meantime, enjoy this weeks summery weather!!   ? ⛈  

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Not a bad weekend in store, I feel? Maybe worth keeping an eye on just where that (to use the technical term) 'green snot' is headed, though: