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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Great output and I’d say there’s a great chance of this June being a good one - certainly better than in recent years (2018 excepted).

    And it reached 25C today - su saving Spring 2021  from being a rare example of one that didn’t reach that mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Can't illustrate on mobile however two interesting things from the 12z in terms of development.

    1) GFS is much agressive than the Euro/GEM with the trough in about a week. An outlier in that period.

    But..

    2) The thing the models agree with is that in about a week all the little lows will form a larger big low. The placement of this is where they differ. The GFS does it far enough east to have lows move through before building pressure. The GEM hits the middle ground but this is actually perfect for upper ridge/plume potential over the UK while the Euro does this so far west that by day 10 we have an upper low dropping into the north sea.

    One to watch albeit by day 10 it's the GFS/GEM winning over the Euro.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)
    4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectable temps if not above average temps. For early/mid June that is simply WONDERFUL!

    It sounds good to me! and my favoured anomaly charts support this very good outlook.

     

    814day.03.gif

    Yes, and even I can see the promise in that anomaly chart…but as much as the ridge in the vicinity of the UK is important, the trough in the Atlantic is crucial to the pattern too, and well shown by the chart you posted…

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

    C5DDBE93-47A3-4D23-8A5D-3662E2B35A60.thumb.png.fa6f600ac5310de0db20542e51648100.png

    If that really is the solution it looks great - always a bit wary when there is only one cluster, and would be even  more wary if that carried through to the next time step, but on this occasion it doesn’t, 3 clusters at T264+ timeframe:

    066A6F2D-93DA-4C97-A072-AFD272D75334.thumb.png.2c4f7e13e960dd7a1c010b8ce90e79b4.png

    And even by the end it is still roughly 2:1 for high pressure v atlantic inroads…

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Posted (edited)

    animkey5.gif

    animtzm5.gif

    You can see a few times towards the middle where you just wonder if we will get an imported storm with good CAPE but the first round that had very good CAPE in it just missing us and by the time it comes back has it ran out of steam. I've focused in on a few bits. 

    4th June 20:00

    gfseuw-11-90.thumb.png.e1dd2d44434593d9008b38b104a6e6ee.png

    Plenty of Connective ability across Central and Southern France. 

    What happens to this? 

    gfseuw-2-84.thumb.png.75470c2b03dcb890d9d1ecf21c28e35e.png

    285343386_gfseuw-11-84(2).thumb.png.10c1fb4605c335e81d71275f7b9ee325.png

    gfseuw-11-90.thumb.png.e1dd2d44434593d9008b38b104a6e6ee.png

    gfseuw-2-90.thumb.png.23abfcdb1c375e91b2c821f20012f6bd.png

    gfseuw-2-96.thumb.png.8ea4b8f60008d6ce90ea1ead193354ab.png1928134280_gfseuw-2-102(1).thumb.png.f4398a5cf2d53c95407c35f88b7c51b5.png

    The system of most likely Thunderstorms slowly is pushed North but when the CAPE starts decreasing at night becomes part of this new system coming up from Spain. 

    What happens to that? 

    1904346071_gfseuw-2-102(1).thumb.png.125547ee2450bdfff16fbd79e66dd672.png

    1565857244_gfseuw-2-108(1).thumb.png.0c872ea20eee7957a2bee0c9d320e18f.png

    370805259_gfseuw-11-108(3).thumb.png.56f369f5af44013395a1533413228613.png

    1314150734_gfseuw-2-114(2).thumb.png.4f84c7b082561548a9e65282e51a20f4.png

    549780039_gfseuw-11-114(2).thumb.png.6e85e42a287f1d2039237a2905dd9d38.png

    569275268_gfseuw-2-126(2).thumb.png.0a13e2eb254ef7d455f66512bb48bbd1.png

    A good 1500 j/kg in some places as showers most likely being quite electric as usual break out on the NorthEast of that system before seemingly two distinct big storms could emerge hitting Kent, possibly getting into London whilst also having one hit East Anglia. Towards the end more conventional local Thunderstorms look to break out. 

    With this run we are now only a few days away from this happening and can begin to look at the Models in not just vague detail but proper detail tomorrow however it can be pretty reliable even 4-7 or so days out and I reckon this run could become a trend and my reasoning for this is because approximately 70% of the last 10 runs have featured similar sorts of things happening such as Storms coming-up from NE France and Benelux. 

    Edit

    I didn't notice this before but there is something that pushes into the South. 

    843849228_gfseuw-2-132(2).thumb.png.e6e6b2a71283a797c72d218a22f85303.png

    1337109352_gfseuw-2-138(3).thumb.png.da6c4105872e68a7b4a86e0db86b07a4.png

    689799253_gfseuw-11-138(5).thumb.png.f8eb0983ad41dcafdcb3dcef60932a81.png1438245396_gfseuw-2-144(2).thumb.png.ec56f31e2620b18ee2084fbbe5e5b0fc.png1065726918_gfseuw-2-150(4).thumb.png.ce06b87554a140ace5a2f82a5d8126f5.png

    You can see it push in becoming more prominent between 8pm and 2am between the 6th and the 7th of June respectively. 

    Eagle Eye

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)

    Arpege showing 28c on Wednesday and 27c Thursday:

    3B210029-CBC5-419A-8680-F672E386E4F0.thumb.jpeg.b3a32928fcd5d66bf7704a446bf230c4.jpeg789655D2-6E44-4BBD-B1A9-F66E65256220.thumb.jpeg.ef581061b72827516ce8e5538fb27232.jpeg
     

    Marco Petgana over on Twitter is upping the ante and saying the met office expect a possible 28-29c to be reached tomorrow!

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good morning, peeps. And the GFS 00Z pulls another corker out of the bag:🌞

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Right then, another day on the farm beckons! Have yourselves a good 'un, eh?👍🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    For the southeast I reckon Thursday - Sunday are the reliable parameters for Thunderstorms. 

    Netweather backing the swing to happen on Saturday night with plenty of CAPE fueling the fire. 

    ukcapeli (13).png

    ukprec (25).png

    ukprec (26).png

    ukprec (27).png

    ukprec (28).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    On 24/05/2021 at 10:11, Sky Full said:

    Yep.  If that trend doesn’t improve I guarantee there will be some ‘Summer’s over’ posts on here before we even reach the equinox....    However,  despite the apparent desire by the models to predict a cool wet summer there’s still loads of time for everything to change - and it almost certainly will.   CFS looks plummy (plumey?) by mid-June (...jff  😉)...

    E17A2C36-FBC1-4D4D-AD2A-46440FA72A29.thumb.png.eaaa260763aabce9d236271e56ab3b57.png  B11A96AB-AB8A-4949-8645-4DFC20E8E0CE.thumb.png.14915a903c011549fa1c3f33d86e0363.png

    Remember when we were looking at mid-June for a plume 😃

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC looking good this morning for a protracted warm/dry spell    😊

    Hope that doesn't jinx it at day 8!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Amazing output for sunny warm weather lovers continues this morning!!ecm and gfs are brilliant!!!not seen ukmo yet so not sure on that one!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Amazing output for sunny warm weather lovers continues this morning!!ecm and gfs are brilliant!!!not seen ukmo yet so not sure on that one!!!!

    49E224C9-99E7-43F4-8D7A-90917BA292A5.thumb.jpeg.0d4ad1acdfdcf5190e38707ccfa1858a.jpeg

    ECM does actually have a few isolated showers on day 8-10 with a disturbance trapped under the high. Conjecture at this point as it’s so far away, but could see a fly or two in the ointment. Hopefully not eh!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    49E224C9-99E7-43F4-8D7A-90917BA292A5.thumb.jpeg.0d4ad1acdfdcf5190e38707ccfa1858a.jpeg

    ECM does actually have a few isolated showers on day 8-10 with a disturbance trapped under the high. Conjecture at this point as it’s so far away, but could see a fly or two in the ointment. Hopefully not eh!

    Yeh the odd shower here and there but nothing major in terms of rainfall thank god!!

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