Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Djdazzle]

Great output and I’d say there’s a great chance of this June being a good one - certainly better than in recent years (2018 excepted).

And it reached 25C today - su saving Spring 2021  from being a rare example of one that didn’t reach that mark.

[Methuselah]

Looks like we'll be spending 16 days' in the goldilocks zone:       

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like we'll be spending 16 days' in the goldilocks zone:       

That's a very decent mean- probably no heatwaves on the cards but pretty consistently warm by the looks of things. Shades of June 2006 perhaps.

[summer blizzard]

Can't illustrate on mobile however two interesting things from the 12z in terms of development.

1) GFS is much agressive than the Euro/GEM with the trough in about a week. An outlier in that period.

But..

2) The thing the models agree with is that in about a week all the little lows will form a larger big low. The placement of this is where they differ. The GFS does it far enough east to have lows move through before building pressure. The GEM hits the middle ground but this is actually perfect for upper ridge/plume potential over the UK while the Euro does this so far west that by day 10 we have an upper low dropping into the north sea.

One to watch albeit by day 10 it's the GFS/GEM winning over the Euro.

[mushymanrob]

It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectable temps if not above average temps. For early/mid June that is simply WONDERFUL!

It sounds good to me! and my favoured anomaly charts support this very good outlook.

 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectable temps if not above average temps. For early/mid June that is simply WONDERFUL!

It sounds good to me! and my favoured anomaly charts support this very good outlook.

 

Yes, and even I can see the promise in that anomaly chart…but as much as the ridge in the vicinity of the UK is important, the trough in the Atlantic is crucial to the pattern too, and well shown by the chart you posted…

Edited May 31, 2021 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectable temps if not above average temps. For early/mid June that is simply WONDERFUL!

It sounds good to me! and my favoured anomaly charts support this very good outlook.

 

Not too fussed either. If it’s low 20s and settled then that’s lovely. My personal preference is about 24-27c rather than 20-23c, but beggars can’t be choosers and after the dreadful weather in May, this is about a good an about turn as you can get. A great start to the 3 month block of the summer months.

[Uncertainty]

 

Spot the difference at day 10 on the GEFS and EPS.

The signal persists into week 3 on the EC46

After that things are a lot less clear.

The 46 projects the tropical signal to fade and then perhaps turn towards the IO, which in turn may pull down AAM and hint at a June of two halves, the 500hpa hinting at that too, here’s week 4:

Promising signs though as @mushymanrob has alluded to and certainly a change from the last two Junes which quickly turned sour. I maintain that this summer will be an ebb and flow between heights to the W and E of us. No 2018 with the Atlantic SSTs and descending EQBO but hopefully no 07 or 12 or even 17, with no instant decent into Nina and solar activity increasing. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

If that really is the solution it looks great - always a bit wary when there is only one cluster, and would be even  more wary if that carried through to the next time step, but on this occasion it doesn’t, 3 clusters at T264+ timeframe:

And even by the end it is still roughly 2:1 for high pressure v atlantic inroads…

[damianslaw]

Looks like we are entering a fairly lengthy mostly settled warm sunny and dry outlook bar temporary showery conditions mid-week. Azores high wanting to build and ridge in by the end of the coming week combined with a weak atlantic, meaning more dry sunny warm weather a very good start to summer, no heatwave, but after the very poor May it might feel like one!

 

[Allseasons-Si]

HELLOOO my fellow weather enthusiast's  

not posted in a good while but what a stunning day it has been with a BBQ on the go this evening,....splendid

now i hope there is more of the same and looking at the latest anomalies,...i think so 

what a complete switch around compared to what we have had to endure through spring,...SUMMER looks to be looking up,...at last

enjoy guys

Edit:just seen @mushymanrob's post above,Great minds

Edited May 31, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just for fun, but the GFS 18z is up there with one of the best runs I've seen in a long time regarding dry, sunny and very warm weather. Blocked throughout, with widespread intense heat building across Europe by T300.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Scorchio weather on 18z, Not seen GFS churn out so many runs on the trot that are full of so much red crayon on the temperature charts since 2018. 

[Eagle Eye]

You can see a few times towards the middle where you just wonder if we will get an imported storm with good CAPE but the first round that had very good CAPE in it just missing us and by the time it comes back has it ran out of steam. I've focused in on a few bits. 

4th June 20:00

Plenty of Connective ability across Central and Southern France. 

What happens to this? 

The system of most likely Thunderstorms slowly is pushed North but when the CAPE starts decreasing at night becomes part of this new system coming up from Spain. 

What happens to that? 

A good 1500 j/kg in some places as showers most likely being quite electric as usual break out on the NorthEast of that system before seemingly two distinct big storms could emerge hitting Kent, possibly getting into London whilst also having one hit East Anglia. Towards the end more conventional local Thunderstorms look to break out. 

With this run we are now only a few days away from this happening and can begin to look at the Models in not just vague detail but proper detail tomorrow however it can be pretty reliable even 4-7 or so days out and I reckon this run could become a trend and my reasoning for this is because approximately 70% of the last 10 runs have featured similar sorts of things happening such as Storms coming-up from NE France and Benelux. 

Edit

I didn't notice this before but there is something that pushes into the South. 

You can see it push in becoming more prominent between 8pm and 2am between the 6th and the 7th of June respectively. 

Eagle Eye

Edited June 1, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[mb018538]

Arpege showing 28c on Wednesday and 27c Thursday:

 

Marco Petgana over on Twitter is upping the ante and saying the met office expect a possible 28-29c to be reached tomorrow!

Edited June 1, 2021 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

Good morning, peeps. And the GFS 00Z pulls another corker out of the bag:

    

    

    

Right then, another day on the farm beckons! Have yourselves a good 'un, eh?

[Eagle Eye]

For the southeast I reckon Thursday - Sunday are the reliable parameters for Thunderstorms. 

Netweather backing the swing to happen on Saturday night with plenty of CAPE fueling the fire. 

[Eagle Eye]

On 24/05/2021 at 10:11, Sky Full said:

Yep.  If that trend doesn’t improve I guarantee there will be some ‘Summer’s over’ posts on here before we even reach the equinox....    However,  despite the apparent desire by the models to predict a cool wet summer there’s still loads of time for everything to change - and it almost certainly will.   CFS looks plummy (plumey?) by mid-June (...jff  )...

  

Remember when we were looking at mid-June for a plume 

[northwestsnow]

EC looking good this morning for a protracted warm/dry spell   

Hope that doesn't jinx it at day 8!

[mb018538]

Rinse and repeat on the ecm today as a big anticyclone dominates NW Europe. Looking like a very good first half of June could be unfolding.

[sheikhy]

Amazing output for sunny warm weather lovers continues this morning!!ecm and gfs are brilliant!!!not seen ukmo yet so not sure on that one!!!!

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Amazing output for sunny warm weather lovers continues this morning!!ecm and gfs are brilliant!!!not seen ukmo yet so not sure on that one!!!!

ECM does actually have a few isolated showers on day 8-10 with a disturbance trapped under the high. Conjecture at this point as it’s so far away, but could see a fly or two in the ointment. Hopefully not eh!

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM does actually have a few isolated showers on day 8-10 with a disturbance trapped under the high. Conjecture at this point as it’s so far away, but could see a fly or two in the ointment. Hopefully not eh!

Yeh the odd shower here and there but nothing major in terms of rainfall thank god!!

[Singularity]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1399479447582031872/photo/1

Thought I'd drop in to share this excellent Twitter thread that highlights a key difference in tropical forcing between this June (and perhaps July) and last.

In short - the atmosphere is repeatedly 'pushing away from' the La Nina setup this year, which it barely did at all in 2020.

This, via relatively short-term (week or so) cycles that set in motion high pressure extensions well to the northeast from the Azores.

It's not expected that these will initiate the feedbacks needed to fully break the atmospheric state away from La Nina, so some cooler, more changeable interludes are likely, but signs are, these should tend to be short-lived in comparison to the more settled spells.

This week through next, the lagged response to a fairly Nino-like orbit plays out. First - until late next week - the Azores High extends well northeast, briefly interrupted by that little low exiting Iberia Wed-Thu. Then, it either gradually retrogrades, with a UK-focused interlude before it moves far enough west that things turn cooler, or it quickly gives way to a Scandinavian High, which could mean anything from hot and dry to cool and wet for us. Not clear yet which way it will go - it depends on how fast and far atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) drops, along with Arctic pattern details that are scarcely knowable at more than a week's range.

[Frosty.]

It’s already been well covered but where’s the harm in another opinion?..  ! .  .....anyway, I’m really pleased with the ECM 0z operational, especially with the renewal of the Azores high / ridge later...if that or something similar verifies, June could well be one to remember...for the right reasons..unlike May!  

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by Jon Snow