Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

Reasonable output this morning, the midweek disturbance gets pushed through fairly quickly allowing HP to build back in by the weekend. Wednesday could be the first 'hot' day of the year although there's some question mark with regards to timing of cloud and/or showers pushing up from the south. Arpege has 28-30C over parts of Dorset & Somerset on Wednesday, that said ECM has just 16-20C as cloud and showers push 6-9hrs earlier than Arpege. 

Still despite the ups and downs nothing too scary in the output with regards to the overall pattern and with Europe warming up nicely it could only be a matter time before we start tapping into something much warmer. 

[Eagle Eye]

This mornings run not as good but the runs tilt and usually CAPE is under done until the day with plumes, still a storm coming from NE France and Benelux but less CAPE back home in Blighty. 

[Eagle Eye]

Gem not on board with the Storms coming up from Benelux at the height of the CAPE instead goes for local thunderstorms with pretty high CAPE here in Britian, would be nice to have a mix of that thundery stuff before those storms from Benelux. 

You can see if the Storms came up from Benelux at this time as the GFS says then it would be great for the South East.

[bluearmy]

The extended mean amplification continues to show and is now in the day ten area. Currently looking to be in our vicinity of longitude or possibly just east. Keeping it away from the Atlantic sector will maintain the warmth though potentially  pushing the western side of the country into a riskier region ref frontal incursions 

all in all a far more seasonal outlook than we’ve seen for some considerable time with both temps and weather types being what they should be! 

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z is looking good:               

[sheikhy]

What a beauty of a 06z so far!!!!!!warm and humid up to 228 hours so far!!

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What a beauty of a 06z so far!!!!!!warm and humid up to 228 hours so far!!

Day 10, and it's a beauty!        

[mb018538]

I think the Wednesday to Friday period could be a nowcasting type of setup. All the models still vary to some degree on warmth, showers and the like. I don’t really have a clue what I’m going to see Thursday and Friday. Got a golfing break over those two days so praying I dodge the showers and potential storms!

[minus10]

I know it is FI but this would be hot, sticky and potentially thundery if it did verify. 

Pretty warm/ hot to the end of this gfs6z run..

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I know it is FI but this would be hot, sticky and potentially thundery if it did verify. 

Pretty warm/ hot to the end of this gfs6z run..

Would be interesting if this year the June 13th enigma came to an end, especially given what a spring it has been!

I’m heading to Dartmouth that weekend so would welcome a chart like that - a slight cooling breeze off the channel.

[Eagle Eye]

Netweather backing frontal rain with maybe some strong storms built into the front of it where it builds up, a conventional maybe half an hour of rain before a storm and more rain following it on Friday, these models are swinging more than Jimmy Anderson's bowling. 

You can see the best chance of a storm from that night following in the footsteps in terms of tracks of other great Thunderstorms. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

What another dazzling GFS run, Its like the umpteenth time its churned out something like this in recent days. Are we onto something this summer time?  

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

What another dazzling GFS run, Its like the umpteenth time its churned out something like this in recent days. Are we onto something this summer time?  

Nothing scientific and i could be wrong but i just get the feeling that there is a trend now for it to get warmer / hot as we go through June, interspersed with thundery/unsettled / cooler spells but with the heat returning. 

There is a lot of warm / hot air now over Europe and to the south..

[Methuselah]

And another tasty set of GEFS ensembles:            

[minus10]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And another tasty set of GEFS ensembles:            

Yes as expected the gfs 6z at top of ensembles towards the end. However most of them above  850 5 deg line for second half of the run confirming the warming trend.....

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Nothing scientific and i could be wrong but i just get the feeling that there is a trend now for it to get warmer / hot as we go through June, interspersed with thundery/unsettled / cooler spells but with the heat returning. 

There is a lot of warm / hot air now over Europe and to the south..

One of the Italian channels shown in Austria has a weather presenter dressed in military air force uniform ( wearing medals, stripes and big cap ). He presents his forecast which shows graphics with the aid of a big stick. So , pay attention ! Not having understood a word he said, he seemed to be talking about the big heat developing over North Africa and was indicating the transfer NW into much of Europe and the UK by day 10. Read what you may into that but his modeling was showing that !

C

Edited May 31, 2021 by carinthian

[minus10]

43 minutes ago, carinthian said:

One of the Italian channels shown in Austria has a weather presenter dressed in military air force uniform ( wearing medals, stripes and big cap ). He presents his forecast which shows graphics with the aid of a big stick. So , pay attention ! Not having understood a word he said, he seemed to be talking about the big heat developing over North Africa and was indicating the transfer NW into much of Europe and the UK by day 10. Read what you may into that but his modeling was showing that !

C

Thanks for that Carinthian. It sounds like he was almost ordering the heat to march north!

I think the build up of heat over north Africa and south Med was kept in place by our cold wet May trough and it would seem reasonable that once able it will make inroads north Think i previously said like a Champagne bottle when the cork is suddenly removed...  

[summer blizzard]

After a weekend away from the models largely it seems that i come back to broad agreement on a weak begnin pattern out to day 10. Blocking not especially strong on the GFS/Euro but the Atlantic without any particular energy to roll in.

GEM a tad out of step in prompting a stronger and more sustainable pressure build. 

This also fits in with recent tropical convection updates with Matt Hugo alluding to AAM on the Euro forecast to stay positive out to mid month and the zonal wind anomoly showing the trade burst forecast a week or so ago to be less strong with slight progress east for the WWB (not much to move the pattern on to the degree we expected a week or so ago).

 

No reason to turn against my summer thoughts as yet but it may suggest that June is probably overperforming which will please some.

In terms of the heat building some have talked about it's not all that impressive with any 15C uppers restricted to Spain out to day 10 for the most part. Heat was much more widespread in 2017-2019 for this time of year.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

After a weekend away from the models largely it seems that i come back to broad agreement on a weak begnin pattern out to day 10. Blocking not especially strong on the GFS/Euro but the Atlantic without any particular energy to roll in.

GEM a tad out of step in prompting a stronger and more sustainable pressure build. 

This also fits in with recent tropical convection updates with Matt Hugo alluding to AAM on the Euro forecast to stay positive out to mid month and the zonal wind anomoly showing the trade burst forecast a week or so ago to be less strong with slight progress east for the WWB (not much to move the pattern on to the degree we expected a week or so ago).

 

No reason to turn against my summer thoughts as yet but it may suggest that June is probably overperforming which will please some.

In terms of the heat building some have talked about it's not all that impressive with any 15C uppers restricted to Spain out to day 10 for the most part. Heat was much more widespread in 2017-2019 for this time of year.

 

Fair assessment. 
 

I agree that there’s not much at present to suggest that summery weather will persist past this drier and warmer spell. As I said a week ago, the early part of summer was always most likely to feature the best of any warmer spells. 
 

Been beautiful here today, perfect weather

[Frost HoIIow]

5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

After a weekend away from the models largely it seems that i come back to broad agreement on a weak begnin pattern out to day 10. Blocking not especially strong on the GFS/Euro but the Atlantic without any particular energy to roll in.

GEM a tad out of step in prompting a stronger and more sustainable pressure build. 

This also fits in with recent tropical convection updates with Matt Hugo alluding to AAM on the Euro forecast to stay positive out to mid month and the zonal wind anomoly showing the trade burst forecast a week or so ago to be less strong with slight progress east for the WWB (not much to move the pattern on to the degree we expected a week or so ago).

 

No reason to turn against my summer thoughts as yet but it may suggest that June is probably overperforming which will please some.

In terms of the heat building some have talked about it's not all that impressive with any 15C uppers restricted to Spain out to day 10 for the most part. Heat was much more widespread in 2017-2019 for this time of year.

 

Yes and it's not unusual for Spain or Portugal to see blisteringly high uppers. The peninsula seems to be a magnet for them for some reason. Closer proximity to Africa and the Sahara than say Italy or Greece?

[Captain Shortwave]

Welcome to summer

 

 

Mid to possibly high twenties in places with good sunny spells away from less favoured coastal parts (NE England and Eastern Scotland).

Uncertainty on the progress of fronts Wednesday night onwards, the Arpege gives another very warm day (Approaching hot in the south east), the others are more progressive so I would favour showers or spells of rain that will clear to a mostly fine weekend. Overall not a bad start.

 

 

[Djdazzle]

Don’t think it makes a lot of difference whether Spain currently has extremely hot air. It can build there very quickly.

I’m sure it took longer to build last year, and we were able to tap into it a couple of times later on.

 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

After a weekend away from the models largely it seems that i come back to broad agreement on a weak begnin pattern out to day 10. Blocking not especially strong on the GFS/Euro but the Atlantic without any particular energy to roll in.

GEM a tad out of step in prompting a stronger and more sustainable pressure build. 

This also fits in with recent tropical convection updates with Matt Hugo alluding to AAM on the Euro forecast to stay positive out to mid month and the zonal wind anomoly showing the trade burst forecast a week or so ago to be less strong with slight progress east for the WWB (not much to move the pattern on to the degree we expected a week or so ago).

 

No reason to turn against my summer thoughts as yet but it may suggest that June is probably overperforming which will please some.

In terms of the heat building some have talked about it's not all that impressive with any 15C uppers restricted to Spain out to day 10 for the most part. Heat was much more widespread in 2017-2019 for this time of year.

 

Well, if Matt's 'alluding' we can surely call summer 2021 a 'write-off'!

        

That sure is some intense and extensive heat, down there!

     

And, with two months' further heating to come, it's hard to imagine it all spontaneously disintegrating?

Edited May 31, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

A lot of the attention will be focused on this week, and rightly so as it will be summery, a real tonic following all the dross in recent weeks...BUT...looking even further ahead, the GEFS 12z mean looks really good for a continuation of summery weather...there are some fantastic perturbations as you would expect with such a good looking mean!...anyway, fingers crossed for a cracking June..and summer! ⛈ ?  

[Mike Poole]

GEM 12z has, for me, the kind of evolution we could expect, given the model output in the round.  A wobble next Thursday which could cause some thundery activity, and then a rebuild of the Azores ridge extension, here:

I think this is consistent with the AAM trend from CFS, which has rather lost the trend to neutral in a week or two, and remains high throughout the forecast period.  

With the sum total of the long rangers as summed up by the MO contingency planners forecast, there is a forecast for hotter than aversage there, but no more than you’d expect with warming trends.  However, I think the recent model output is now putting us on a path for a really decent hot June, after the disappointing May, with the potential for thundery activity too.  It is important not to look on any one op run as gospel, I find in summer more than winter, a kind of super-ensemble of all the daily op runs can be a good guide, particularly when Azores ridging is involved, and evident on many op runs.  The models are less accurate in summer, so the lower resolution ensemble suites can be less useful.

Anyway, can’t complain at the outlook at the moment, what we need, in so more ways than one…we will see…