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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There's no snow in the forecast?

Ps Ed..I made a mess of my last post, I was supposed to say last evenings Gem 12z which I edited..but I’m not fast enough on the draw!!!!.. not like Shane!  

8F1DDFF5-2640-4C5B-A4AE-D90C2F5157FD.thumb.jpeg.1ffd3536e23fdb2758fb3b062cb1c2db.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What a lovely set of GEFS temperature ensembles! t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png   

Thank goodness the control run is an outlier -- it'd make working in a polytunnel somewhat 'uncomfortable'!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The difference at the moment seems to be down to the track of the that shallow low and how deep it is. The UKMO has this moving north much quicker and interacts with the jet stream pushing through the Atlantic. The GFS has this low shallower, slower moving and further west and as such sustains the ridge to our east far better with a drier and warmer result. However after this it does look like the Azores high will have a decent attempt at building north east into week 2. 
Overall, nothing excessive temperature wise, but certainly favouring above average so feeling warm in most places. A chance of showers and thunderstorms for a time depending on that low. Not a bad start to the summer, which is quite a change from the last several weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

More thundery breakdowns possible pretty much all of next week, I'm keeping an eye on Wednesday to Thursday have been looking the best for a French Import but other days look good most places but especially London and East Anglia for a big homegrown Thunderstorm or an imported Supercell through France with the CAPE looking possible at the moment. 

 

ukcapeli (6).png

ukprec (14).png

ukprec (15).png

ukprec (10).png

ukprec (12).png

gfseuw-2-150 (2).png

gfseuw-2-180.png

gfsnh-0-174.png

ukcapeli (5).png

ukcapeli (7).png

Edited by Eagle Eye
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Solar eclipse day    21201171814_92ce8d15a8_b.jpg

image.thumb.png.74047096ef5d930ede44f8eb465f77d6.png

Too bad its way out of our periphery. Would be nice to have a March 2015 eclipse right about now during this warm spell!

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Just now, Frigid said:

Too bad its way out of our periphery. Would be nice to have a March 2015 eclipse right about now during this warm spell!

I remember that one, the cloud cleared just as the eclipse passed

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Not sure if this is meant to say  a potential breakdown can't be ignored,  or the double negative is designed to portray your confidence  that it can be ignored! 

I like the thought of the latter to which I think you and JH have been alluding of late

lol.. to be clear...
IMHO the anomalies certainly do bring back higher pressure with ridging dominant, not overly strong but still . The Anomalies though, being the mean charts, are unlikely to show a transient feature like the small area of low pressure associated with the breakdown.

So imho there WILL be a breakdown, or shift to unsettled - call it what you will,  as all models agree on it. But that unsettled spell is not expected to last long, and not long enough or large enough to impact on the Anomaly mean before high pressure re-establishes settlingthings down again.

And as the models are showing it, it is perfectly acceptable to talk about the breakdown which is what started this line of discussion.

 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

If people want a breakdown then so be it. We all have weather preferences.  But there is no breakdown in the GFS 6z its a dream, just wall to wall blue skies throughout 

npsh500 (1).png

npsh500 (2).png

npsh500.png

ukmaxtemp.png

i dont think any body WANTS a breakdown, but it is there on all model runs .... but your assessment of the 06z is inaccurate. There is a change to unsettled from thursday through to early next week, no wall to wall blue skies. It should become settled next week.



 

rainsun.png

gfs cloud.png

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Still storms on the cards and looking good for a big French/Benelux import, would be nice to have one of those strike quite far inland and other ones for some of the Storm starved parts of the South. 

 

 

gfseuw-2-126.png

gfseuw-11-126.png

gfseuw-2-120 (2).png

gfseuw-2-138 (2).png

gfseuw-2-150 (3).png

gfseuw-2-156 (1).png

gfseuw-11-150 (1).png

Edit

Sorry about them not being in a great order. 

gfseuw-2-120 (2).png

Edited by Eagle Eye
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Another good bunch of temperature ensembles from the GEFS:  t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

As much as a good storm is nice, do we really want more rain?

It’s not like a storm is going to produce anywhere near the deluge of rain we’ve had over the past month or so, is it? Also, not everywhere will get hit with a storm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

It’s not like a storm is going to produce anywhere near the deluge of rain we’ve had over the past month or so, is it? Also, not everywhere will get hit with a storm. 

Maybe not - but I don’t want to see any rain, storm or not, for at least a month - that’s how sick of it I am!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Maybe not - but I don’t want to see any rain, storm or not, for at least a month - that’s how sick of it I am!

quite right but charts that are been posted here for POTENTIALLY thundery weather are at least 3 days off and 6 days off in same cases and should not be taken as gospel or over hyped , the things can and probably will change or might not even happen at all

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
27 minutes ago, thestixx said:

The 18Z GFS is showing an abundance of HP all over northern Europe and long may it continue. Welcome to meteorological Summer everyone

And it ends with a nice big blob of cold green snot dangling right over everyones heads.  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good morning, peeps. And, what a fine GFS 00Z we have on offer::drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

It's nice to see the GEFS ensemble mean still ambling along at around 8C. Though the Op is playing silly buggers, again?

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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