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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    Means vs Ops: Day 9ish

    Ops:

    image.thumb.gif.585d8e011ff872641441b9b671b81c80.gif

    image.thumb.png.8addce5da29e34b505ef0d25790b0af8.png
     

    Means: Let’s give it a day or two eh?

    image.thumb.gif.ee4ad963883a8e1793657f8e9c334110.gif
     

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    Pretty strong support for a U.K. high regime, the Ops can’t be ignored with their green snot outcome, but you can’t really see it on the EC spreads either, so it’s a case of checking in tomorrow to see if the renegade trough option is still there. Given the changes in the behaviour of the northbound euro low next Wednesday (e.g. was cut off low /then  deep low moving north / now weak feature moored west of Ireland) it’s hard to give credence to any day 8+ outcome at present, especially with the means and Ops so heavily against each other at present.

    I think the risk of rising heights to the W/NW of the U.K. will be an ever present one this summer, especially with the Atlantic SST profile supportive of Northern blocking. Nevertheless, the seasonalals are supportive of a reasonable summer so dichotomies like this evening are going to be par for the course I’m afraid.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    54 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I beg your pardon . . . 

     

     

    Joy and pain, like Sunshine & Rain...(summary of this thread)

     

    Some joy at least in the next few days...

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    18Z looks like the Scandi and Azores are about to link up but it fails miserably right at the last minute ,  theres always one spanner from somewhere that has to come along and mess things up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS this morning is an absolute ripper bringing high 20s into the middle of the week and possibly 30c by Friday as it makes almost nothing of the low in the middle of the week. Unfortunately it’s right at the top end of top end of the ensembles and all the others this morning breakdown the warm spell during Wednesday. 
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Looking at these charts especially the precipitation first time I've seen any indication of storms coming to the southeast from Benelux and the southwest from Spain through France. Not that far away and these CAPE charts look like indicating some great home grown storms and maybe a Supercell or a multicellar storm coming up from France and Benelux.

    gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.aaf324f937c9cfef9e4b1650415fecd4.pnggfsnh-5-108.thumb.png.0f12f6c9225b99c38673bfa38978a613.png

     

    gfseuw-11-138 (1).png

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    gfseuw-2-138 (1).png

    gfseuw-2-144 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

     

    seems to have gotten lost on the way to the storm/convective thread

    Has only come onto the Models recently, still not reliable time yet though so I'm continously checking the model runs every day. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    @Mr Frost, looking like we could top 25C tomorrow. This would save this spring from failing to reach that benchmark, which Is very unusual.

    When was the last time that Spring failed to reach 25C I wonder?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Good news is the 06z is broadly similar to the 00z run up to 150 hours🔥😎👊

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)

    Yep, however we, as individuals, view things cannot change the weather -- so, discuss away! GFS 06Z at T+360 looks very, very good, to me!🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Lots of sunshine with little sign of any unbearable heat & humidity?👍

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Things must be looking up guys, the Gem 0z op is a lot better longer term than last evenings 12z!...you could even call it a gem 💎? 🤔...I’m so much excited about early summer..I could seriously crush a grape..great discussion on here yet again..nice post by mushy..respect buddy!! 😉 ! 😯 ☀️ 🥵 🐿 ..ps..how on earth are we still on page 75! 😯...aha..now page 76..I should have waited a few more minutes! 😛 

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    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Completely agree .... we are here to view and discuss what the models are showing, not to ignore and change because that will come whether we talk about it or not.

    tbh i dont see how it cannot be ignored...

    Not sure if this is meant to say  a potential breakdown can't be ignored,  or the double negative is designed to portray your confidence  that it can be ignored! 

    I like the thought of the latter to which I think you and JH have been alluding of late

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Just now, Jon Snow said:

    Things must be looking up guys, the Gem 0z op is a lot better longer term than the 0z...you could even call it a gem 💎? 🤔...I’m so much excited about early summer..I could seriously crush a grape..great discussion on here yet again 😉 ! 😯 ☀️ 🥵 🐿 ..ps..how on earth are we still on page 75! 😯...

    ABEAA9D5-76E5-4066-A8A3-01F857D49B92.thumb.png.7eaa19d99e4a41b171fbe36dc237bd6f.pngFB89CA0B-C0C1-4559-AA25-29070D528D16.thumb.png.d30452edda6ca7f4e6cbbcc41c22c168.pngE0D9E2E6-6B9F-4C33-BE4A-C8F9185D5A71.thumb.jpeg.fe43217a59ce88d860c6efb682152308.jpeg

     

    There's no snow in the forecast?😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    There's no snow in the forecast?😁

    There’s Jon SNOW..that’s all you need! 😉 

    Anyway, great output compared to the cack of MAY! 😯 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Well that 6z run must be the best one of the warm season so far. Be funny to see how far an outlier it is, because it stays very warm to hot throughout!

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    2 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

    Can't believe people are looking for a breakdown already, I know it's the model output thread but we've just endured a terrible MONTH of temperatures and then when we finally get what we've wanted, people are already looking for the breakdown of it rather then keeping with the positivity of what we've been wanting for the pasts few months.🤔 

    I think we still need to look objectively at the models. If they are signposting a breakdown then that needs discussed, otherwise this forum becomes overly biased towards hot/sunny or cold/snowy and loses credibility. That doesn’t mean that people shouldn’t post the odd brilliant chart with an extreme or unlikely solution occasionally because that is part of the joy of this forum and it will give people a lift. As long as it is caveated as such (like @Alderc did this morning with his analysis of an extreme and exciting gfs op solution that went against the overall trend).

    On a personal level I do absolutely understand what you’re saying. I love seeing and probably do probably post more charts that show drier / more blocked outcomes but we can’t lose sight of a genuine signal for a pattern change. For me that is the most exciting element of model viewing - knowing when a pattern change is genuine or just model bias balderdash.

    For now though I think the anomalies are pretty steadfast on a continuation of warmer and drier weather beyond this weeks potentially thundery shenanigans.

    A continuing signal for a rebuild of pressure that has been counting down nicely towards the reliable. Notably the big 3 Ops have dropped last nights trapped low to the NW and all have fallen in line with their respective means:

    Ecm op

    image.thumb.gif.5c00d97adb7b47fb833cb24a86253636.gif
     

    ECM mean

    image.thumb.gif.9bffabf6b19025085c97c2e4b767dd73.gif
     

    Ecm spreads 

    image.thumb.gif.e180c39b598029189887bc9b3667d8e1.gif

    Good support for our rebuilding high, just a minor hint of the odd run probably bringing a disturbance closer to NW Britain.

    GFS op

    image.thumb.png.0b3b12fc8ef84c96fb169a8bc147e698.png
    GFS mean 

    image.thumb.png.5d60fffd761ce5f801c48a94d62d1803.png
    The only cautionary note I would add to the above is it remains out of range of the UKMO and thus we can only call it the presently favoured solution. Things can and do change with the models especially in summer and if such a change were to appear we would need to discuss that.

    Right now though the sunshine is in the bag so enjoy it we shall! 
     

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